Bankruptcy diagnostics is a system of targeted financial analysis aimed at identifying the parameters of the crisis development of the enterprise that generate the threat of its bankruptcy in the coming period.
Depending on the goals and methods of implementation, the diagnostics of the bankruptcy of an enterprise is divided into two main systems:
- 1) a system of express diagnostics of bankruptcy;
- 2) a system of fundamental diagnostics of bankruptcy.
The system of express diagnostics of bankruptcy provides early detection of signs of the crisis development of the enterprise and allows you to take prompt measures to neutralize them. Its preventive effect is most noticeable at the stage of a slight financial crisis of the enterprise.
The main objectives of the fundamental diagnostics of bankruptcy are:
- - deepening the results of assessing the crisis parameters of the financial development of the enterprise, obtained in the process of express diagnostics of bankruptcy;
- - confirmation of the obtained preliminary assessment of the scale of the crisis financial condition of the enterprise;
- - forecasting the development of individual factors that generate the threat of bankruptcy of the enterprise, and their negative consequences;
- - assessment and forecasting of the enterprise's ability to neutralize the threat of bankruptcy due to internal financial potential.
There are two main approaches to predicting bankruptcy.
The first is based on financial data and involves the operation of some coefficients: the increasingly famous Altman Z-factor (USA), the Taffler coefficient (UK), and others.
The second one starts from data on bankrupt companies and compares them with the corresponding data of the company under study.
In the West, the method of E. Altman, proposed by him in 1968, is widely used to predict the probability of bankruptcy. - multiple discriminant model that takes into account the action of the five most significant factors:
X 1 - liquidity indicator (working capital / total assets);
X 2 - profitability indicator (retained earnings / total assets);
X 3 - sustainability indicator (income before taxes and interest / total assets);
X 4 - solvency indicator (market value of shares / book value of debt obligations);
X 5 - activity indicator (sales volume / total assets).
The Altman model has the following form:
Z = 1.2X 1 + 1.4X 2 + 3.3X 3 + 0.6X 4 + 0.999X 5
The results of numerous calculations using the Altman model showed that the generalized indicator Z can take values ranging from -14 to +22, while enterprises for which Z > 2.99 fall into the category of financially stable, and enterprises for which Z< 1,81 - безусловно несостоятельных; интервал 1,81 - 2,99 составляет зону неопределенности.
The British scientist Taffler proposed a four-factor predictive model of the species (formula 16):
Z = 0.53x1 + 0.13x2 + 0.18x3 + 0.16x4 (16)
where x 1 - the ratio of profit from sales to short-term liabilities;
x 2 - ratio current assets to the amount of liabilities;
x 3 - the ratio of short-term liabilities to the amount of assets;
x 4 - the ratio of revenue to the amount of assets.
With a value of Z greater than 0.3, the company has good long-term prospects, with a value of Z less than 0.2, bankruptcy is more than likely.
There is also a model for predicting the probability of bankruptcy, developed by scientists from the Irkutsk State Academy of Economics (formula 17):
Z = 8.38K 1 + K 2 + 0.54K 3 + 0.63K 4 (17)
where K 1 - the ratio of working capital to assets;
K 2 - ratio net profit to equity;
K 3 - the ratio of proceeds from sales to assets;
To 4 - the ratio of net profit to integral costs.
Russian discriminant bankruptcy forecasting models are represented by a two-factor model by M.A. Fedotova and the five-factor model of R.S. Saifulina, G.G. Kadykov.
Bankruptcy Probability Estimation Model M.A. Fedotova based on the ratio current liquidity (X 1 ) and the share of borrowed funds in the balance sheet currency (X 2 ):
Z = -0.3877-1.0736 X 1 + 0,0579 X 2 .
With a negative index value Z it is likely that the company will remain solvent.
R.S. equation Saifulina, G.G. Kadykova looks like:
Z = 2.x 1 +0,1X 2 +0,08X 3 +0,45X 4 +X 5 ,
where x 1 - equity ratio ( normative value X G >0,1);
X 2 - current ratio (X 2 >2);
X 3 - the intensity of the turnover of the advanced capital, characterizing the volume of sales per 1 rub. funds invested in the activities of the enterprise (x 3 > 2.5);
X 4 - management ratio, calculated as the ratio of profit from sales to revenue;
X 5 - return on equity (x 5 >0.2).
With full compliance of the values financial ratios minimum regulatory levels index Z equals 1. The financial condition of an enterprise with a rating number less than 1 is characterized as unsatisfactory. The disadvantages of such models are the overestimation of the role of quantitative factors, the arbitrariness of the choice of a system of basic quantitative indicators, and high sensitivity to distortion. financial reporting and etc.
To diagnose the financial condition of the enterprise in the system crisis management various domestic and foreign methods are used, each of which has certain features and disadvantages. Various bankruptcy prediction techniques actually predict different kinds crises. It seems, however, that none of the methods can claim to be used as a universal one precisely because of "specialization" in any one type of crisis. Therefore, it seems appropriate to track the dynamics of changes in the resulting indicators for several of them. The choice of specific methods, obviously, should be dictated by the characteristics of the industry in which the enterprise operates. Moreover, even the methods themselves can and should be subject to adjustment taking into account the specifics of industries.
Thus, based on the study and analysis of literary sources, the following conclusions can be drawn.
Anti-crisis management is the process of applying forms, methods and procedures aimed at the socio-economic improvement of the financial and economic activities of an enterprise, the creation and development of conditions for overcoming a crisis.
Like any socio-economic system, the enterprise strives for sustainability. However, external and internal factors force him to constantly adapt, adapt to new conditions and situations. A crisis in an enterprise occurs when the existing entrepreneurial structure unable to adapt to changing operating conditions. As a result, the work of the existing system is disorganized, but at the same time, the prerequisites for a new system appear.
In anti-crisis management of the enterprise big role plays diagnostics of the financial condition of the enterprise. Financial condition is a characteristic economic activity enterprises in the external environment. The main task of diagnosing the financial condition of an enterprise is to determine the quality of the financial condition of an enterprise, as well as to determine the reasons for its improvement or deterioration; further, as a rule, recommendations are prepared on the solvency and financial stability of the enterprise.
To date, the world practice has developed quite stable approaches to the analysis of the financial statements of enterprises and the formation of conclusions and recommendations based on the results of the analysis. The methods used in this process can be divided into four groups: transformational, qualitative, coefficient and integral.
The profitability of the enterprise is directly related to the financial condition. If the solvency of an enterprise mainly depends on the turnover of assets, then financial stability depends on profitability, since. equity replenished with profits.
Under the conditions of increasing competition, economic instability, declining solvency of the population and business entities, diagnostics of the financial condition of CJSC "XXX" is of particular importance in order to develop directions for the further development of the organization. As part of the anti-crisis management of an enterprise, it is necessary to conduct a financial analysis, which will include: analysis of working capital; assessment of the need for advanced capital; analysis of the need for equity capital; capital structure analysis; analysis of the validity of the policy of distribution and use of profits; investment feasibility analysis; analysis of entrepreneurial and financial risk and etc.
Dissertation abstract on the topic "Methods and models of fuzzy-multiple analysis in anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises"
As a manuscript
DOMBROVSKY Alexey Vladislavovich
METHODS AND MODELS OF FUZZY SET ANALYSIS IN ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT OF INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES
Specialty 08.00.13 - Mathematical and instrumental methods of economics
dissertations for competition degree candidate economic sciences
St. Petersburg - 2006
The dissertation was completed at the Department of National Economy of the State educational institution higher vocational education"St. Petersburg State Polytechnic University".
SCIENTIFIC DIRECTOR -
OFFICIAL OPPONENTS:
doctor of economic sciences, professor Mednikov Mikhail Dmitrievich
doctor of economic sciences, professor Yuryev Vladimir Nikolaevich
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor Posnov Vladimir Grigorievich
LEADING ORGANIZATION - Nizhny Novgorod State
university. N.I. Lobachevsky
The defense will take place "/ ^" 2006 at ^ ^ hours at a meeting of dis-
Certification Council D 212.229.23 St. Petersburg State Polytechnic University at the address: 195251, St. Petersburg, st. Politekhnicheskaya, 29, III educational building, room,
The dissertation can be found in the fundamental library of the St. Petersburg State Polytechnic University.
Scientific Secretary of the Dissertation Council,
Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor CX/^^ä-a--Suloeva S.B.
I. ABOUT [FOR CHARACTERISTICS OF WORK The relevance of the research topic. Modern conditions functioning of Russian enterprises determine the need for a comprehensive and objective economic analysis production and economic activities. Such an analysis makes it possible to identify inefficiency and the causes of its occurrence, as well as, on the basis of the results obtained, to develop specific recommendations for optimizing activities. In this regard, at this stage of development market relations in Russian economy increasing interest is acquiring research in the field of anti-crisis management, in particular, in the field of identifying unfavorable trends in the development of enterprises -
The special significance of such studies is confirmed by the steady growth in the number of enterprises transferred to the stage of bankruptcy proceedings, the growth of overdue accounts payable, a decrease in the profitability of enterprises in the industrial sector.
At the same time, the uncertainty of the external and internal environment of enterprises, the heterogeneity and non-representation of samples, the presence of statistical errors reduce the reliability of the known "exact" mathematical models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy and necessitate further development of the mathematical apparatus for analyzing anti-crisis management processes in modern economic conditions.
Fuzzy-set analysis began to be used in economic research relatively recently and was mainly aimed at solving the problems of reducing the loss of expert information during its processing, determining the boundaries of uncertainty. However, some aspects of its use in the anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises have not yet been sufficiently developed, namely: methods and models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy; methods and models for the formation of anti-crisis strategies; methods for assessing the qualitative factors of production and economic activity.
Thus, the relevance of the chosen topic of the dissertation, complexity, multi-aspect and unresolved methodological problems of the fuzzy-multiple
analysis in anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises determined the purpose and objectives of the dissertation research.
The aim of the study is to develop methods and models for fuzzy-multiple analysis of anti-crisis management processes aimed at improving the efficiency of production and economic activities of industrial enterprises.
In accordance with the goal in the dissertation, the following tasks were solved:
an analysis of the reasons for the insolvency of industrial enterprises was carried out, their classification was made;
the analysis of mathematical models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of industrial enterprises;
developed a conceptual model of the economic mechanism for the emergence of insolvency of industrial enterprises;
developed a method and mathematical model fuzzy-multiple assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of industrial enterprises;
developed a mathematical model of the process of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises;
developed a method for the formation of anti-crisis strategies in the anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises;
a technique for fuzzy-multiple evaluation of qualitative indicators of production and economic activity of industrial enterprises is proposed. Industrial enterprises are chosen as the object of research. Will take research - the processes of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises.
The information basis of the study was the materials Federal Service state statistics of the Russian Federation, publications and reports of the Bulletin of the Higher
Arbitration Court of the Russian Federation, analytical and reporting materials of executive authorities of the Russian Federation.
Scientific novelty of the research:
clarified the concepts of insolvency, insolvency, bankruptcy, which differ in taking into account the depth of the crisis state and processes;
a classification of the reasons for the insolvency of industrial enterprises has been developed, which differs from the known classifications by taking into account the aggregate factors of reducing net discounted flow;
a conceptual model of the economic mechanism for the emergence of insolvency of industrial enterprises has been developed, which differs by taking into account the fuzziness of the stages of their functioning;
developed a method and a mathematical model for a fuzzy-multiple assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of industrial enterprises, which differ in taking into account the effects of the interaction of factors of production and economic activity in the regression equation developed both for individual enterprises and for their totality, linguistic recognition of estimates;
a mathematical model of the process of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises has been developed, which differs in taking into account the key factors of production and economic activity and directions for their optimization;
a method for the formation of anti-crisis strategies in the anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises has been developed, which is distinguished by the use of the method of "steep climbing the response surface" and linguistic recognition of estimates;
a technique for fuzzy-multiple assessment of qualitative indicators of production and economic activity of industrial enterprises is proposed, which differs by taking into account the fuzziness of expert information at all stages of its processing.
The practical significance of the dissertation research lies in the possibility of using the developed economic and mathematical methods and models in the analysis and monitoring of activities, anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises, financial and industrial groups and holdings, enterprises of other industries.
The results of the dissertation research, scientific conclusions and methodological developments were reported at the scientific seminars of SPbSPU, are used in the educational process of SPbSPU. The main provisions and results of the dissertation research were included in the comprehensive anti-crisis plan of General Production Company LLC for 2004-2005. A number of provisions of the dissertation were used in solving the problems of anti-crisis management of LLC "VIPuf", as evidenced by the attached "Introduction Act" and "Certificate on the use of the results of the dissertation research".
Structure and volume of the dissertation. The dissertation consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion, appendices and a bibliography of 138 titles. Contains 148 pages of main text, 20 figures, 42 tables.
II. MAIN CONTENT OF THE WORK
Conceptual model of the economic mechanism of the insolvency of industrial enterprises. production system(PS) ~ this is primarily a system of organization industrial production. The effectiveness of the PS is felt at the upper echelons of the management of an industrial enterprise, when the indicators of production and economic activity show the entire interconnected picture of the work of the PS, including planning, procurement, production, stocks, sales, financial flows and many other aspects. Therefore, the process of anti-crisis management is an optimization process key indicators production and economic activities. The main tasks of anti-crisis management as a process are: analysis of the causes crisis processes, environmental monitoring, risk controlling, assessment of the economic situation and assessment of the probability of bankruptcy; development of an anti-crisis strategy.
The main conceptual concepts in the dissertation are the concepts of insolvency, insolvency, bankruptcy. Within the framework of this study, insolvency is defined as a temporary, acute or chronic inability of an enterprise to pay its current obligations on time; failure as economic process, manifested in the phenomena of acute
or chronic insolvency and due to unprofitability entrepreneurial activity caused by an increase in uninsured risks, a decrease in the number innovative projects, increased competition, unfavorable market conditions, force majeure, as well as the systemic impact of crisis processes; bankruptcy as an economic phenomenon, manifested in the recognition by the debtor enterprise (including in court) of its insolvency,
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Figure 1. Block diagram of the conceptual model of the economic mechanism of the insolvency of industrial enterprises.
The basis for clarifying these concepts was theoretical concepts categories of profit, which were generalized in the dissertation, as well as the existence of stages in the functioning of industrial enterprises that differ in the value of the net discounted flow (NPV), the degree of depth of the crisis state and processes. The dissertation concludes that the stages of functioning of industrial enterprises are fuzzy, and it is proposed to define them by fuzzy sets.
There are seven such stages: profitable activity (obtaining economic profit), profitable activity (obtaining normal profit), break-even activity, unprofitable activity, temporary insolvency, acute insolvency, chronic insolvency.
In fact, the fuzziness of the stages of functioning makes it possible to identify the economic mechanism for the emergence of insolvency of industrial enterprises, as well as to classify the aggregate factors affecting the decrease in NPV (Figure 1).
Method and mathematical model of fuzzy-multiple assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of industrial enterprises. The development of methods and models of fuzzy-multiple analysis is inextricably linked with the identification of a system of criteria. Since the goal of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises is economic stability, the criterion for such stability is the effectiveness of the anti-crisis management process. Thus, such efficiency can be determined by assessing the probability of bankruptcy. The dissertation concludes that the mathematical model for assessing the probability of bankruptcy is an analytical model of fuzzy expert knowledge.
Let the space of possible stages of functioning of industrial enterprises contain the states 1,2,..., B. Let also "state 1" be the state when the threat of bankruptcy tends to zero during a given period (obtaining economic profit), and "state B" - chronic insolvency. Such a space corresponds to the accepted conceptual model of the economic mechanism of insolvency.
Then, on the basis of the developed concept of the stages of functioning of the activity industrial enterprise, and also based on the theory of linguistic variables, the estimate of the probability of bankruptcy ¥ can be represented by:
G = (<ЛуТ,7\£>),
where - the name of the variable: "assessment of the probability of bankruptcy"; T-term-
a set or set of values: "very low", "low", "below average", "medium", "above average", "high", "very high"; £> - domain of definition: universe .
choice "sperto* Defined* gmngeistmchasyaoy repaint "probability estimate _sancrotetae"_
Step 1 Definition of factor spaces, in
production
Step Determine *** factors *
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Step 4. Matrix Formation
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ISYAPMCHCH gaeffnkdontoa chsht-
Sky? aiachmmyh
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Figure 2. Algorithm of the method for assessing the probability of bankruptcy.
Designations: ha - number of factors; k - the number of experts; N - the number of questions to the expert group; - name of factors; 7) -turn-sets; - universes; /? - criterion adequately -
sti; С/„,|„ - estimations of deviations of doubtful answers of experts; C - Colreia criterion.
Therefore, having defined Y as a function of assessing the probability of bankruptcy, based on the theory of fuzzy sets, we can present it in the following form (Figure 3).
Figure 3. Representation of the linguistic variable "estimation of the probability of bankruptcy" in a fuzzy form.
The abscissa axis shows the intervals of the domain of definition of the function ¥, formed on the basis of the Sturges rule, taking into account the fuzziness of the boundaries, the assumption of the normal distribution of industrial enterprises over the selected stages of functioning. Along the y-axis /m(Y)~ the degree of belonging of Г to the corresponding fuzzy term-sets.
Further reasoning (Figure 2) assumes the use of the structure of the full factorial experiment (FFE) 2°, where n is the number of factors, and 2 is the number of interval points for each factor. Thus, each factor or each linguistic or quantitative variable used is encoded with extreme values. To do this, the factors are normalized according to the average, for example, relative to the industry or regional specifics of the activity, and the qualitative factors acquire boundary values ["high", "low"]. In accordance with this model, the number of necessary questions for the expert group is 2", which is necessary and sufficient to construct a linear equation of the first degree with linear effects of the interaction of both qualitative and quantitative factors:
where ] Ф and; K - assessment of the probability of bankruptcy; X - factors taken into account in the analysis; b - the resulting coefficients.
Mathematical model of the anti-crisis management process. Method of formation of anti-crisis strategies. Model Y allows optimization of the bankruptcy probability estimate using the “steep ascent to the optimum” method, using the stage of linguistic recognition.
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VgaU = + + *
ac, yg1 dx, "b] + b,] + ... +
Ofed|prmm| unymzhgm ktiiri "yu*yya TYNTIK
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There are no otllonvini Exit I) of the crisis
Figure 4. Algorithm for the method of forming an anti-crisis strategy *
Designations: Y - model for assessing the probability of bankruptcy; - coefficients in the Y model;
factors; - direction of axes of factors; En€1 - average values of factors; ¿^-
swear step / -th factor; - estimated step of the t-th factor,
It should be noted that such optimization is represented by the process of anti-crisis management, the direction of which is determined by the gradient:
I + - 3 +... + ,
Ca ^ OX 2 OX to
bj1 + y +... + bkk,
where 1, ],...,k - unit vectors and directions of axes of factors; bk - the obtained coefficients.
Movement along the gradient provides the shortest path to the optimum - the goal of the anti-crisis strategy. The economic meaning of the ¡ga¡ model<1¥ состоит в том, что %гас1¥ представляет собой реализацию комплекса управленческих решений по выходу предприятия из кризиса.
Such a set of management measures is created according to the algorithm developed in the dissertation (Figure 4).
Methodology of fuzzy-multiple assessment of qualitative indicators of production of non-economic non-operational industrial enterprises. A distinctive feature of the methods and mathematical models developed in the dissertation is the possibility of analyzing qualitative factors along with quantitative ones. In this case, it becomes necessary to evaluate such qualitative factors. The dissertation proposes a technique for fuzzy-multiple assessment of qualitative factors in the production and economic activities of industrial enterprises. The main stages of the methodology are:
1) determination of linguistic variables of the assessed factor and system-forming indicators of this factor; definition of term-sets of factors and indicators:
where ¡¿e/u is the name of the variable "Level of the factor"; d-term-set or set of values: C = ((7,.....C?3(, namely "very low", "low", "medium", "high",
"very tall"; g - universe:
where Le / X, - the name of the variable “The level of the indicator B7 is a term-set or set of values: Vts \u003d (V,], ..., namely, “very low”, “low”, “medium”, “high”, "very high"; y, - the universe X,; I = 1..Xr; y = 1..5 - the number of terms; N - the number of indicators.
2) determination of the significance of indicators:
where r is the significance of indicators X, ranked in descending order (Fishburn's rule) or having equal significance;! = - number of indicators.
3) determination of triangular membership functions corresponding to certain term-sets of factors and indicators:
4) expert evaluation of indicators; determination of the degree of belonging of estimates to term-sets of indicators:
5) matrix convolution:
where ^ is the average of the corresponding term set in (gf = 16.7 _/).
6) linguistic recognition of the result.
III. MAIN CONCLUSIONS AND RESULTS OF THE WORK
The methods and models of fuzzy-multiple analysis developed in the dissertation were tested at the industrial enterprise General Production Company LLC. The process of antiphysical management, based on the economic analysis of the enterprise and carried out in the dissertation, included:
assessment of the economic situation of the enterprise, primarily in terms of liquidity, profitability, turnover;
assessment of the probability of bankruptcy as a criterion for a stable economic position of the enterprise (model Y, model %gac1Y);
formation and implementation of an anti-crisis strategy, in accordance with the developed models Y and %ha<ГУ.
To determine the assessment of the probability of bankruptcy (model Y) of the enterprise-object of the study, taking into account the specifics of production activities, the following factors (factor space) were selected: KU - current liquidity ratio; K^ - coefficient of maneuverability of own
K£SH11TSHSH) K^ - KO "
return on sales ratio; K^ - level of innovative potential; Kum - level of management,
As a result of processing the expert survey matrix according to the algorithm developed in the thesis, the coefficients of the polynomial were obtained. Subsequently, the coefficients were tested for significance according to Student's I-test (confidence interval L, - ±1.70). As a result, only 11 practically significant coefficients remained:
G \u003d 51.0-4.5Y-" -12, -17.5 / ^ - 6.9A "" - 7.4I, F -2.588AGtA" _ + 2.725K "KShch - +
1.975KzhKtKuya itK ^K^ + 3.525KmskK ^K
The assessment of the adequacy of the model was carried out according to / "Fisher's criterion. The calculated value of the Fnscher criterion is ^" 1.56. With the same number of degrees of freedom, the tabular value of the criterion RT = 1.6. Since E^< , то можно считать полученное уравнение адекватной математической моделью оценки вероятности банкротства исследуемого предприятия.
Calculation of the probability of bankruptcy according to model Y at the beginning of 2003 was 67.56471 (0.59/"above average"+0.41/"high"), at the end of 2003 - 71.39845 (0.29/"above average"). "+0.71/"high"). The result obtained can be more clearly interpreted graphically (Figure 5):
Figure 5. Fuzzy representation of V. In the dissertation, an analysis of the effects of the interaction of factors in model G was also carried out, the main direction of the anti-crisis management strategy of the enterprise-object of research was determined - sales management (table 1).
Table 1. The main stages of anti-crisis strategists (5) of the enterprise under study.
Stages of forming the strategy of MP K?
Goal: reaching the break-even zone, stabilizing activity
Baseline 71.39845 0.29/ “above average”+0.71/ “high” 1.17 0.06 0.06 53.6 65
Stage 1 +0.14 +0.05 +0.06 +<,55 +7,03
Anti-crisis tactics, Coordination of the principles of the sales management system. Reducing the part of VA to increase the provision of SC SOS. Increasing liquidity through the implementation of VA. Creation of conditions for increasing the level of benchmarking. Creation of conditions for activation of innovative processes.
Outcome 1 59.40256 0.25/ "average" +0.75/ "above average" 1.31 0.11 0.12 60.15 72.03
Stage 2 +0.14 +0.05 +0.06 +6.55 +7.03
Anti-crisis tactics, G, Reducing part of the unprofitable assortment. Release of resources to increase the level of management towards innovation potential. Determination of the most priority commodity positions. Planning a sales and marketing management system. Planning a system for sharing knowledge and experience. Preparation for the placement of shares on the stock market
Outcome 2 47.71439 0.18/ "below average"+0.82/ "average" 1.44 0.16 0.18 66.69 79.07
Stage 3 +0.14 +0.05 +0.06 +6.55 +7.03
Anti-crisis tactics, 7 * h Implementation of a sales management system. Implementation of a knowledge and experience exchange system. The growth of SOS, the growth of profitability of sales, liquidity, due to the placement of shares on the stock market,. Preparation of justification for obtaining a medium-term loan. Implementation of an active market strategy
Outcome 3 36.74136 0.06/ "low" +0.94/ "below average" 1.58 0.21 0.24 73.24 86.10
The result of the anti-crisis measures taken was the exit of this industrial enterprise from a crisis state, a decrease in the assessment of the probability of its bankruptcy, as well as a significant increase in the efficiency of its work, which is confirmed by the dynamics of activity parameters (for example, an increase in current liquidity, starting from 2004 - the year of the start of the experimental implementation of the developed in dissertation methods and models, Figure 6).
Figure 6. Dynamics of current liquidity.
1. Dombrovsky A.B. How to predict bankruptcy: methods, models, criticism and Economic reforms in Russia: Collection of scientific papers. - St. Petersburg: SPbGPU, 2004. - S. 125-133. - 0.5 sq.
2. Dombrovsky A.B. Methods for assessing the insolvency of an enterprise in the system of anti-crisis management // Economic reforms in Russia: Collection of scientific papers. - St. Petersburg: SPbGPU, 2005. - S. 61-66. - 0.38 p.l.
3. Dombrovsky A.V., Mednikov M.D. Elements of fuzzy-set analysis in predicting the bankruptcy of enterprises // XXXIV Week of Science of SPbSPU: Proceedings of the All-Russian Interuniversity Scientific and Technical Conference of Students and Postgraduates. 7.-S. 6-7.-0.1 plU0.03 pl.
4. Dombrovsky A.B. Fuzzy polynomial as a basis for a mathematical model of the process of anti-crisis management of enterprises. St. Petersburg State Technical University Journal. - St. Petersburg: SPbGPU, 2006. - No. 4 (26). - S. 296-298. - 0.3 sq.
5. Mednikov M.D. Dombrovsky, A.V. Expert systems as a generalized representation of knowledge on economic processes and phenomena in fuzzy conditions // Regional aspects of management, economics and law of the Northwestern Federal District of Russia. Issue 2. Interuniversity collection of scientific papers / Ed. Dr. Econ. Sciences, Academician of MANEB A.D. Makarov, Doctor of Economics. sciences, prof. M.D. Mednikov, Doctor of Military. sciences, prof. A.A. Tselykovsky. - St. Petersburg: Izd-vo VATT, 2006. - S. 127-130.-0.03 plU0.37 pl.
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Thesis: content author of the dissertation research: candidate of economic sciences, Dombrovsky, Aleksey Vladislavovich
INTRODUCTION
CHAPTER 1. THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL FOUNDATIONS OF MODELING THE ANTI-CRISIS
MANAGEMENT OF INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES. AND
§1.1. The essence and conceptual foundations of modeling the process of anti-crisis management.
§1.2. The essence, types and causes of crises in industrial enterprises.
§1.2.1. Analysis of the concept of crisis, classification of types of crises.
§1.2.2. Stages of the crisis process.
§1.2.3. Classification of the causes of crises.
§1.3. Theoretical aspects of insolvency and bankruptcy.
§1.3.1. Analysis of the concepts of insolvency, insolvency, bankruptcy.
§1.3.2. Analysis of mathematical models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy: directions for improvement.
Conclusions on the first chapter.
CHAPTER 2. DEVELOPMENT OF METHODS AND MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF FUZZY-SET ANALYSIS IN ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT OF INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES.
§2.1. Expert systems as a generalized representation of knowledge about the object of study.
§2.2. The main provisions of the theory of fuzzy sets: fuzzy sets, fuzzy numbers and operations on them.
§2.3. The concept of a linguistic variable.
§2.4. Development of a method for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of an enterprise.
§2.4.1. General provisions.
§2.4.2. The system of model adequacy criteria.
§2.4.3. Representing the Bankruptcy Probability Estimate as a Linguistic Variable.
§2.4.4. Application of the theory of experiment planning.
§2.4.5. Algorithm for the method of estimating the probability of bankruptcy of an enterprise.
§2.5. Development of a mathematical model of the anti-crisis management process: a steep ascent along the response surface.
§2.6. Methods of matrix assessment of qualitative and qualitative-quantitative factors.
Conclusions on the second chapter.
CHAPTER 3. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE DEVELOPED METHODS AND MODELS OF ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT OF INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISE.
§3.1. Economic analysis of the object of study: parameters, trends.
§3.2. Development of a model for assessing the probability of bankruptcy for the object of study.
§3.2.1. Development of a model for assessing the probability of bankruptcy.
§3.2.2. Calculation of the probability of bankruptcy according to the developed model.
§3.2.3. Formation of an anti-crisis strategy.
§3.3. Evaluation of the effectiveness of the anti-crisis measures taken.
Conclusions on the third chapter.
Thesis: introduction in economics, on the topic "Methods and models of fuzzy-multiple analysis in anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises"
Relevance of the research topic. Modern conditions for the functioning of Russian enterprises necessitate a comprehensive and objective economic analysis of production and economic activities. Such an analysis makes it possible to identify inefficiency and the causes of its occurrence, as well as, on the basis of the results obtained, to develop specific recommendations for optimizing activities. In this regard, at this stage of the formation of market relations in the Russian economy, research in the field of anti-crisis management, in particular, in the field of identifying unfavorable trends in the development of enterprises, is becoming increasingly important.
The special significance of such studies is confirmed by the steady growth in the number of enterprises transferred to the stage of bankruptcy proceedings, the growth of overdue accounts payable, and the decrease in the profitability of enterprises in the industrial sector. Thus, according to the data of the Supreme Arbitration Court of the Russian Federation, the number of cases at this stage considered by the Court in 2005 was 13,963, and in 2004 - 9,390. and at the stages of external administration and bankruptcy proceedings): in 2005 - 84; in 2004 - 150. At the same time, the number of enterprises that managed to actually restore their solvency in 2005 amounted to 21 out of 1013, compared with 2004 - 14 out of 1369 (at the stage of external management).
Moreover, the volumes and growth rates of accounts payable are quite significant. Thus, at the end of 2000, according to the Russian State Statistics Committee, overdue accounts payable amounted to 1,571 billion rubles. (or 116% by 1999), at the beginning of 2002, 1,638 billion rubles (or 104.3% by 2000). It should also be noted that the rate of profit of enterprises in the industrial sector during 2001 decreased from 14% to 9% (according to the materials of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (CMASF).
Many domestic and foreign authors are studying the problems of economic and mathematical analysis of the processes of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises. Among them are Altman E., Anokhin S.A., Bagiev G.L., Balabanov A.V., Bakanov M.I., Glukhov V.V., Gradov A.P., Kobzev V.V., Kozlovsky V.A., Kozlovskaya E.A., Kuzin B.I., Lis J., Mednikov M.D., Nedosekin A.O., Okorokov V.R., Robinson J., Sokolova R.V., Stoyanova E.S., Tisshaw J., Toffler E., Utkin E.A., Tsarev V.V., Chesser A., Eitington V.N., Yuriev V.N. and others. It is believed that the criterion for the effectiveness of anti-crisis management is the assessment of the probability of bankruptcy. Therefore, the development of the theory, methodology and tools of this area of anti-crisis management in modern economic conditions will also ensure the effective functioning of the enterprise as a whole.
However, the uncertainty of the external and internal environment of industrial enterprises, which reduces the reliability of the known "exact" mathematical models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy, the heterogeneity and non-representation of samples in these models, the presence of statistical errors necessitate the use of methods and models of fuzzy-multiple analysis as tools, allowing to reduce loss of expert information during its interpretation and processing, as well as to determine the boundaries of uncertainty.
Moreover, at present, there is virtually no integrated system for managing crisis enterprises based on the use of modern mathematical tools that allows you to quickly analyze economic information in order to make informed management decisions.
It should be noted that the methods and models of fuzzy-set analysis, judging by the available scientific publications, have been used in economic research relatively recently. They concerned mainly aspects of the stock market. However, it seems that the possibilities of fuzzy-multiple analysis can be extended to solving the problems of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises.
The actual need for the development of methods and models of fuzzy-set analysis in the anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises also arose due to the fact that attempts to make and implement management decisions based on classical mathematical methods were unsuccessful. This can be explained based on the well-known principle of incompatibility, according to which, with the increase in the dimension and complexity of production systems, their modeling according to known mathematical relations becomes more complicated.
Thus, the relevance of the chosen topic of the dissertation, the complexity, multidimensionality and unresolved nature of a number of methodological issues of the practical application of fuzzy-set analysis in the anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises determined the purpose and objectives of the dissertation research.
The aim of the study is to develop methods and models for fuzzy-multiple analysis of anti-crisis management processes aimed at improving the efficiency of production and economic activities of industrial enterprises.
In accordance with the goal set, the following tasks were solved: an analysis of the reasons for the insolvency of industrial enterprises was carried out, their classification was made; the analysis of mathematical models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of industrial enterprises; developed a conceptual model of the economic mechanism for the emergence of insolvency of industrial enterprises; a method and a mathematical model for a fuzzy-multiple assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of industrial enterprises have been developed; developed a mathematical model of the process of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises; developed a method for the formation of anti-crisis strategies in the anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises; a technique for fuzzy-multiple evaluation of qualitative indicators of production and economic activity of industrial enterprises is proposed.
Industrial enterprises are chosen as the object of research. The subject of research is the processes of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises.
The theoretical and methodological basis of the research is the scientific works of domestic and foreign authors in the field of economic analysis, anti-crisis management of an enterprise, economic and mathematical modeling, fuzzy set theory, experiment planning theory, expert information formalization theory, system analysis.
The information basis of the study was the materials of the State Statistics Committee of Russia, publications and reports of the Bulletin of the Supreme Arbitration Court, analytical and reporting materials of the executive authorities of the Russian Federation.
The scientific novelty of the study lies in the following: the concepts of insolvency, insolvency, bankruptcy are clarified, which differ in taking into account the depth of the crisis state and processes; a classification of the reasons for the insolvency of industrial enterprises has been developed, which differs from the known classifications by taking into account the aggregated factors of reducing the net discounted flow; a conceptual model of the economic mechanism for the emergence of insolvency of industrial enterprises has been developed, which differs by taking into account the fuzziness of the stages of operation of enterprises; a method and a mathematical model for a fuzzy-multiple assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of industrial enterprises have been developed, which differ in taking into account the effects of the interaction of factors of production and economic activity in the regression equation developed both for individual enterprises and for their totality; a mathematical model of the process of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises has been developed, which differs in taking into account the key factors of production and economic activity and the direction of their optimization; a method for the formation of anti-crisis strategies in the anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises has been developed, which is distinguished by the use of the method of "steep climbing the response surface" and linguistic recognition of the results; a technique for fuzzy-multiple assessment of qualitative indicators of production and economic activity of industrial enterprises is proposed, which differs by taking into account the fuzziness of expert information at all stages of its processing.
The practical significance of the dissertation research lies in the possibility of using the developed economic and mathematical methods and models in the analysis and monitoring of the activities of industrial enterprises, anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises, financial and industrial groups and holdings, enterprises of other industries.
Approbation and reliability of the research results.
The results of the dissertation research, scientific conclusions and methodological developments were reported at the scientific seminars of SPbSPU, are used in the educational process of SPbSPU. The main provisions and results of the dissertation research were included in the comprehensive anti-crisis plan of General Production Company LLC for 2004-2005; a number of provisions of the dissertation were used in solving the problems of anti-crisis management of OOO "VIPuf", as evidenced by the attached "Act on the implementation" and "Certificate on the use of the results of the dissertation research".
The structure and scope of the dissertation. The dissertation consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion, appendices and a bibliography of 138 titles. Contains 148 pages of main text, 20 figures, 42 tables.
Thesis: conclusion on the topic "Mathematical and instrumental methods of economics", Dombrovsky, Alexey Vladislavovich
Conclusions on the third chapter
1. An economic analysis of the research object was carried out in terms of liquidity, profitability, and turnover. The main trends and trends have been formed. It was noted that, other things being equal, and maintaining the current situation, there may be a deterioration in the main performance indicators. It is shown that the enterprise did not fully use the possibilities of anti-crisis management; anti-crisis management decisions were ineffective.
2. As a result of a meaningful dialogue with experts, indicators of financial and economic activity were identified that have a direct or indirect impact on the probability of bankruptcy of General Production Company LLC, taking into account the specifics of production activities, as well as a number of additional factors taken into account by experts in the model.
3. A factor space has been developed. Coding of factors on the interval [-1;1] was carried out.
4. A fuzzy evaluation model is built, in accordance with the main provisions of the method proposed in Chapter II of the thesis, based on the results of processing the expert survey matrix; in this case, the structure of a complete factorial experiment of type 2 "with parallel & duplication is used, where n is the number of factors, k is the number of experts. In our case, n = 5, k = 5.
5. As a result of processing the expert survey matrix according to the algorithm proposed in Chapter II, the polynomial coefficients were obtained. Further, according to the proposed method, the coefficients were tested for significance according to Student's t-test (confidence interval AL; = ±1.70). As a result, only 11 coefficients significantly different from zero remained.
The resulting polynomial equation has the form ^^ + 2.13 8KzhkKrpKm + 4.525KzhkKrpKum
The assessment of the adequacy of the equation was carried out according to Fisher's /^-criterion in the form: n2 (3.10)
The calculated value of the Fisher criterion =1.56. With the same number of degrees of freedom (amount of information), the tabular value of the criterion po = 1.6. Since PP< то можно считать полученное уравнение адекватной математической моделью оценки вероятности банкротства предприятия ООО «Генеральная производственная компания».
6. Calculation of factors and calculation of the probability of bankruptcy of the object of study was carried out according to the developed model:
U 67.56471 0.59/ “above average” +0.41 / “high” 71.39845 0.29 / “above average” +0.71 / “high”
7. In accordance with the method of formation of anti-crisis strategies and the model %cash#, an anti-crisis strategy for the object of study was developed.
It is shown that the main direction of the strategy is sales and profitability management.
8. It is shown that the effectiveness of the implemented measures can be judged by two main criteria:
9. An assessment of the effectiveness of the implemented anti-crisis measures was carried out. It is shown that the anti-crisis strategy in LLC "General Production Company" ensured the growth of the main coefficients and the way out of the crisis.
CONCLUSION
1. Conceptual approaches to anti-crisis management of an enterprise have been studied. It is noted that anti-crisis management can be both preventive (preventive) and anticipatory (anticipatory).
2. Various approaches to the definition of the concept of anti-crisis management are considered. It is shown that the anti-crisis management of an industrial enterprise (both in a broad and narrow sense) is a process of optimizing key indicators of production and economic activity.
3. The main goals and objectives of anti-crisis management are defined: analysis of the causes of crisis processes, monitoring of the environment, risk controlling, assessment of the economic situation and assessment of the probability of bankruptcy; development of an anti-crisis strategy.
4. It is shown that the enterprise is going through several stages in its development. Based on the NPV criterion, and on the basis of the assumption that all sales proceeds generate DCF (the fact that barter transactions are carried out as anomalous phenomena in a developed market economy is ignored), seven such stages (stages) have been identified: profitable activity (obtaining economic profit), profitable activity (obtaining a normal profit), break-even activity, unprofitable activity, temporary insolvency, acute insolvency, chronic insolvency. The conclusion is made about the fuzziness of the stages of functioning of an industrial enterprise.
5. It is shown that a decrease in profitability below a critical level, for example, below the cost of capital, can lead an enterprise to chronic insolvency. That is, the decrease in profitability, in general, is the result of the negative impact of factors affecting the emergence of profit. A generalization of the theoretical concepts of the concept of profit has been carried out. It is noted that a decrease in the number of innovations, an increase in uninsured business risks, increased competition, unfavorable market conditions can lead an enterprise to losses and to unprofitability as a whole.
6. A conceptual model of the economic mechanism for the emergence of insolvency of industrial enterprises has been developed, which differs by taking into account the fuzziness of the stages of operation of enterprises.
7. The prerequisites for the emergence of a crisis situation at the enterprise have been studied. The concepts and approaches to the definition of the economic category of the crisis are analyzed and systematized, both from the point of view of the phenomenon and from the point of view of the process. The concepts of classification of crises are considered and generalized. The stages of the crisis process are singled out and their impact on the economic mechanism for restoring solvency is shown. a classification of the reasons for the insolvency of industrial enterprises has been developed, which differs from the known classifications by taking into account the aggregated factors of reducing the net discounted flow;
8. Definitions have been clarified: insolvency is understood as the inability of an enterprise to pay its obligations on time; insolvency is understood as an economic process that manifests itself in the phenomena of acute or chronic insolvency and is caused by unprofitable business activities caused by an increase in uninsured risks, a decrease in innovative solutions, increased competition, unfavorable market conditions, as well as a systemic, prolonged, negative impact of crisis processes; bankruptcy is understood as an economic phenomenon, manifested in the recognition by the debtor (including by the Court) of its insolvency.
9. The main methods and models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy, which is a criterion for the effectiveness of anti-crisis management, are summarized. It is shown, firstly, that two- and three-factor models are not sufficiently accurate. Second, the fourth factor in the main indicator 1
Altman - the ratio of the market value of all ordinary and preferred shares of a joint-stock company to borrowed funds - should characterize the level of coverage of the company's obligations by the market value of its own capital. However, given the underdevelopment of the secondary market for Russian securities in most organizations, this indicator loses its meaning. Thirdly, differences in the specifics of the economic situation and business organization between Russia and developed market economies affect the set of financial indicators used in the models of foreign authors. Thus, Altman's basic formula presupposes the existence of an exchange, actively operating, secondary market for shares, in which their price is determined. Fourthly, the models of Altman and Beaver (and similar ones) do not correspond to the modern specifics and organization of business in Russia, the peculiarities of accounting and tax accounting. Fifth, the lack of reliable statistical data on the economic activities of industrial enterprises in Russia leads to the use of coefficients in statistical models determined by experts, which does not ensure their sufficient accuracy. Sixthly, it is concluded that the uncertainty of the external and internal environment of industrial enterprises, which reduces the reliability of the known "exact" mathematical models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy, the heterogeneity and non-representation of samples in these models, the presence of statistical errors necessitate the use of fuzzy methods and models as tools. -multiple analysis, allowing to reduce the loss of expert information during its interpretation and processing, as well as to determine the boundaries of uncertainty.
10. It is shown that the specifics of the functioning of the production system suggests that there are factors that make the process of collecting and analyzing information difficult due to the presence of various kinds of uncertainties. Expressions and coefficients in the models presented in Chapter 1 may be known at the current time, but have an indefinite nature of change. A classification of uncertainties by type and place of occurrence is proposed.
11. It is shown that the ability to create "expert systems" in any area of interest to him is "laid" in the human brain. It is concluded that expert systems in most cases are fuzzy and work in a fuzzy environment. It is concluded that the problem posed in the dissertation should be solved under conditions of partial uncertainty and within the framework of fuzzy-multiple analysis.
12. General questions of the theory of fuzzy sets and the theory of linguistic variables are considered. An assumption is made that within the framework of this dissertation research, unimodal fuzzy numbers of N1 -type will be used.
13. The linguistic variable "estimation of the probability of bankruptcy" is determined in accordance with the conceptual model of the economic mechanism of insolvency.
14. It is shown that the initial fuzzy information can be processed using a class of general scientific expert methods. Analyzing the properties and areas of applicability of these methods, the Delphi method should be taken as the basis as it introduces the least distortion into the processed information and has the maximum invariance to the opinion of experts. The method allows reducing the overall error by reducing the error of each expert. To do this, at the output of the method, information is presented in a fuzzy-numerical form.
15. It is shown that since the fuzziness of the initial information causes the fuzziness of the proposed conclusions, the term-sets of possible values of the output variable intersect over the entire domain of definition.
16. It is shown that the use of both quantitative and qualitative factors to determine the probability of bankruptcy with the indicated membership functions leads to the fact that the boundaries of states intersect. This means that the conclusion about the state number will also be ambiguous. At the same time, such an approach corresponds to the economy of the phenomenon under consideration (for example, a change in the probability of bankruptcy of an enterprise), since the process of transition from one state to another is continuous, which does not allow establishing a clear boundary between its states. In addition, the use of the membership function from the interval to describe qualitative factors allows one to formalize such information in a certain way.
17. It is concluded that the expert's survey can be approached from the point of view of the theory of experiment planning, approximating the results with an analytical function of the form:
1=1 ",/=1 where - the result of the experiment in a fuzzy form; X - factors taken into account in the analysis; b - obtained coefficients.
That is, the joint use of the theory of fuzzy sets and the theory of planning experiments makes it possible to formalize the knowledge model of an expert (expert group) by an analytical function in the form of a polynomial.
18. An algorithm for the method of assessing the probability of bankruptcy has been developed. It is shown that to check doubtful, i.e., outliers, the p criterion is used (GOST 11.002-73); in case of questionable results, fuzzy averages for these experiments are published in the expert group and the experiment is repeated. The coefficients are tested for statistical significance using Student's t-test. The adequacy of the model is checked using Fisher's T7-criterion
19. It is concluded that the developed method provides the construction of a generalized parameter for assessing the probability of bankruptcy, depending on both quantitative and qualitative features. It is shown that the resulting model makes it possible to analyze the influence of the relevant factors as
separately and in various combinations, which makes it possible to analyze in more detail the structure of changes in the probability of bankruptcy and develop appropriate measures to reduce it - managerial decisions.
20. A mathematical model of the anti-crisis management process has been developed. It is shown that the movement along the gradient provides the shortest path to the optimal model, since the direction of the gradient is the direction of the steepest slope leading from a given point to the top. The economic meaning of gradY is that gradY shows the direction of the enterprise's anti-crisis management strategy.
21. A technique for fuzzy-multiple assessment of the qualitative indicators of the production and economic activities of industrial enterprises is proposed, which differs by taking into account the fuzziness of expert information at all stages of its processing.
The assessment of the factor level is carried out as follows:
5 N y=1 1=1 where gj is the average of the corresponding term-set O (gj = 16.7y).
22. An economic analysis of the research object was carried out in terms of liquidity, profitability, and turnover. The main trends and trends have been formed. It was noted that, other things being equal, and maintaining the current situation, there may be a deterioration in the main performance indicators. It is shown that the enterprise did not fully use the possibilities of anti-crisis management; anti-crisis management decisions were ineffective.
23. As a result of a meaningful dialogue with experts, indicators of financial and economic activity were identified that have a direct or indirect impact on the probability of bankruptcy of General Production Company LLC, taking into account the specifics of production activities, as well as a number of additional factors taken into account by experts in the model.
24. Factor space developed. Coding of factors on the interval [-1;1] was carried out.
25. A fuzzy evaluation model is built, in accordance with the main provisions of the method proposed in Chapter II of the dissertation, based on the results of processing the expert survey matrix; in this case, the structure of a complete factorial experiment of type 2" is used with duplication parallel to k, where n is the number of factors, k is the number of experts. In our case, n = 5, k = 5.
26. As a result of processing the expert survey matrix according to the algorithm proposed in Chapter II, the polynomial coefficients were obtained. Further, according to the proposed method, the coefficients were tested for significance according to Student's /-criterion (confidence interval AL; = ±1.70). As a result, only 11 coefficients significantly different from zero remained.
The resulting polynomial equation has the form:<ум - (3.9)
2.588Kt1Kmsk + 2.125KmskKrp -1.925Kp11KrpKt +
1975KpaKshKum + 2,ShKmskKrpKip + 4.525KmskKrpKum
The assessment of the adequacy of the equation was carried out according to Fisher's ^-criterion in the form:
The calculated value of the Fisher criterion T7 = 1.56. With the same number of degrees of freedom (amount of information), the tabular value of the criterion for RT = 1.6. Since PP< РТ, то можно считать полученное уравнение адекватной математической моделью оценки вероятности банкротства предприятия ООО «Генеральная производственная компания».
27. Calculation of factors and calculation of the probability of bankruptcy of the object of study was carried out according to the developed model:
Bankruptcy probability assessment At the beginning of 2003 At the end of 2003
Meaning Linguistic Recognition Meaning Linguistic Recognition
U 67.56471 0.59/ "above average" +0.41/ "high" 71.39845 0.29/ "above average" +0.71/ "high"
A comparative analysis of models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy has been carried out. It is shown that the Y model most adequately reflects the assessment of the probability of bankruptcy.
28. In accordance with the method of forming anti-crisis strategies and the gradY model, an anti-crisis strategy for the object of study has been developed. It is shown that the main direction of the strategy is sales and profitability management.
29. It is shown that the effectiveness of the implemented measures can be judged by two main criteria:
To what extent the goal of the anti-crisis program has been achieved; whether the crisis was overcome and whether the activity of the organization stabilized;
To what extent the result obtained corresponds to the resources spent on the implementation of anti-crisis measures (observance of the principle of rationality of anti-crisis management).
30. An assessment of the effectiveness of the implemented anti-crisis measures was carried out. It is shown that the anti-crisis strategy in LLC "General Production Company" ensured the growth of the main coefficients and the way out of the crisis.
Dissertation: bibliography in Economics, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Dombrovsky, Alexey Vladislavovich, St. Petersburg
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Introduction
CHAPTER 1. Theoretical and methodological foundations for modeling the process of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises 11
1.1. The essence and conceptual foundations of modeling the process of anti-crisis management 11
1.2. The essence, types and causes of crises in industrial enterprises 21
1.2.1. Analysis of the concept of crisis, classification of types of crises 21
1.2.2. Stages of the crisis process 26
1.2.3. Classification of causes of crises 29
1.3. Theoretical aspects of insolvency and bankruptcy 35
1.3.1. Analysis of the concepts of insolvency, insolvency, bankruptcy 35
1.3.2, Analysis of mathematical models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy: areas for improvement 40
Conclusions on the first chapter 53
CHAPTER 2. Development of methods ii of mathematical models of fuzzy-set analysis in anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises 57
2.1. Expert systems as a generalized representation of knowledge about the object of study 57
2.2. The main provisions of the theory of fuzzy sets: fuzzy sets, fuzzy numbers and operations on them 60
2.3, The concept of a linguistic variable 63
2.4. Development of a method for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of an enterprise 65
2.4.1. General provisions 65
2.4.2, System of criteria for model adequacy 68
2.4.3. Representing the Bankruptcy Probability Estimate as a Linguistic Variable 69
2.4.4. Application of the theory of experimental design 72
2.4.5. Algorithm for the method of assessing the probability of bankruptcy of an enterprise 76
2.5. Developing a Mathematical Model of the Crisis Management Process: Steep Climbing the Response Surface 89
2.6. Methodology of matrix assessment of qualitative and qualitative-quantitative factors 94
Conclusions on the second chapter 99
CHAPTER 3 Implementation of the developed methods and models of anti-crisis management of an industrial enterprise 103
3.1. Economic analysis of the object of study: parameters, trends 103
3.2. Development of a model for assessing the probability of bankruptcy for the object of study 108
3.2.1. Development of a model for assessing the probability of bankruptcy 108
3.2.2. Calculation of the probability of bankruptcy according to the developed model 126
3.2.3. Formation of an anti-crisis strategy 132
3.3. Evaluation of the effectiveness of anti-crisis measures taken... 136
Conclusions on the third chapter 138
Conclusion 141
Bibliography
Introduction to work
Relevance of the research topic. Modern conditions for the functioning of Russian enterprises necessitate a comprehensive and objective economic analysis of production and economic activities. Such an analysis makes it possible to identify inefficiency and the causes of its occurrence, as well as, on the basis of the results obtained, to develop specific recommendations for optimizing activities. In this regard, at this stage of the formation of market relations in the Russian economy, research in the field of anti-crisis management, in particular, in the field of identifying unfavorable trends in the development of enterprises, is becoming increasingly important.
The special significance of such studies is confirmed by the steady growth in the number of enterprises transferred to the stage of bankruptcy proceedings, the growth of overdue accounts payable, and the decrease in the profitability of enterprises in the industrial sector. Thus, according to the data of the Supreme Arbitration Court of the Russian Federation, the number of cases at this stage considered by the Court in 2005 was 13,963, and in 2004 - 9,390. and at the stages of external administration and bankruptcy proceedings): in 2005 - 84; in 2004 - 150. At the same time, the number of enterprises that managed to actually restore their solvency in 2005 amounted to 21 out of 1013, compared with 2004 - 14 out of 1369 (at the stage of external management).
Moreover, the volumes and growth rates of accounts payable are quite significant. Thus, at the end of 2000, according to the Russian State Statistics Committee, overdue accounts payable amounted to 1,571 billion rubles. (or 116% by 1999), at the beginning of 2002, 1,638 billion rubles (or 104.3% by 2000). It should also be noted that the rate of profit of enterprises in the industrial sector during 2001 decreased from 14% to 9% (according to the materials of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (CMASF).
Many domestic and foreign authors are studying the problems of economic and mathematical analysis of the processes of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises. Among them are Altman E., Anokhin S.A., Bagiev G.L., Balabanov A.V., Bakanov M.I., Glukhov V.V., Gradov A.P., Kobzev V.V., Kozlovsky V. A., Kozlovskaya E.A., Kuzin B.I., Lis J., Mednikov M.D., Nedosekin A.O., Okorokov V.R., Robinson J., Sokolova R.V., Stoyanova E. S., Tisshaw J., Toffler E., Utkin E.A., Tsarev V.V., Chesser A., Eitington V.N., Yuriev V.N. and others. It is believed that the criterion for the effectiveness of anti-crisis management is the assessment of the probability of bankruptcy. Therefore, the development of the theory, methodology and tools of this area of anti-crisis management in modern economic conditions will also ensure the effective functioning of the enterprise as a whole.
However, the uncertainty of the external and internal environment of industrial enterprises, which reduces the reliability of the known "exact" mathematical models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy, the heterogeneity and non-representation of samples in these models, the presence of statistical errors necessitate the use of methods and models of fuzzy-multiple analysis as tools, allowing to reduce loss of expert information during its interpretation and processing, as well as to determine the boundaries of uncertainty.
Moreover, at present, there is virtually no integrated system for managing crisis enterprises based on the use of modern mathematical tools that allows you to quickly analyze economic information in order to make informed management decisions.
It should be noted that the methods and models of fuzzy-set analysis, judging by the available scientific publications, have been used in economic research relatively recently. They concerned mainly aspects of the stock market. However, it seems that it is possible
The features of fuzzy-multiple analysis can also be extended to solving problems of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises.
The actual need for the development of methods and models of fuzzy-set analysis in the anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises also arose due to the fact that attempts to make and implement management decisions based on classical mathematical methods were unsuccessful. This can be explained based on the well-known principle of incompatibility, according to which, with the increase in the dimension and complexity of production systems, their modeling according to known mathematical relations becomes more complicated.
Thus, the relevance of the chosen topic of the dissertation, the complexity, multidimensionality and unresolved nature of a number of methodological issues of the practical application of fuzzy-set analysis in the anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises determined the purpose and objectives of the dissertation research.
The purpose of the study is the development of methods and models of fuzzy-multiple analysis of anti-crisis management processes aimed at improving the efficiency of production and economic activities of industrial enterprises.
In accordance with the set goal, the following tasks:
an analysis of the reasons for the insolvency of industrial enterprises was carried out, their classification was made;
the analysis of mathematical models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of industrial enterprises;
developed a conceptual model of the economic mechanism for the emergence of insolvency of industrial enterprises;
a method and a mathematical model for a fuzzy-multiple assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of industrial enterprises have been developed;
developed a mathematical model of the process of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises;
developed a method for the formation of anti-crisis strategies in the anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises;
a technique for fuzzy-multiple evaluation of qualitative indicators of production and economic activity of industrial enterprises is proposed.
Object of study selected industrial enterprises.
Subject of study - processes of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises.
Theoretical and methodological base researches are scientific works of domestic and foreign authors in the field of economic analysis, anti-crisis management of an enterprise, economic and mathematical modeling, fuzzy set theory, experiment planning theory, expert information formalization theory, system analysis.
Information base The research was based on the materials of the State Statistics Committee of Russia, publications and reports of the Bulletin of the Supreme Arbitration Court, analytical and reporting materials of the executive authorities of the Russian Federation.
Scientific novelty research is as follows:
clarified the concepts of insolvency, insolvency, bankruptcy, which differ in taking into account the depth of the crisis state and processes;
a classification of the reasons for the insolvency of industrial enterprises has been developed, which differs from the known classifications by taking into account the aggregated factors of reducing the net discounted flow;
a conceptual model of the economic mechanism for the emergence of insolvency of industrial enterprises has been developed, which differs by taking into account the fuzziness of the stages of operation of enterprises;
a method and a mathematical model for a fuzzy-multiple assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of industrial enterprises have been developed, which differ in taking into account the effects of the interaction of factors of production and economic activity in the regression equation developed both for individual enterprises and for their totality;
a mathematical model of the process of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises has been developed, which differs in taking into account the key factors of production and economic activity and the direction of their optimization;
a method for the formation of anti-crisis strategies in the anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises has been developed, which is distinguished by the use of the method of "steep climbing the response surface" and linguistic recognition of the results;
a technique for fuzzy-multiple assessment of qualitative indicators of production and economic activity of industrial enterprises is proposed, which differs by taking into account the fuzziness of expert information at all stages of its processing.
Practical significance dissertation research lies in the possibility of using the developed economic and mathematical methods and models in the analysis and monitoring of the activities of industrial enterprises, anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises, financial and industrial groups and holdings, enterprises of other industries.
Approbation and reliability of the research results.
The results of the dissertation research, scientific conclusions and methodological developments were reported at the scientific seminars of SPbSPU, are used in the educational process of SPbSPU. The main provisions and results of the dissertation research were included in the comprehensive anti-crisis plan of General Production Company LLC for 2004-2005; a number of provisions of the dissertation were used in solving the problems of anti-crisis management of OOO "VIPuf", as evidenced by the attached "Act on
9 implementation” and “Reference on the use of the results of the dissertation research”.
The structure and scope of the dissertation. The dissertation consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion, appendices and a bibliography of 138 titles. Contains 148 pages of main text, 20 figures, 42 tables.
In the introduction the relevance of the topic is substantiated, the purpose and objectives of the dissertation research are determined.
In the first chapter"Theoretical and methodological foundations of modeling the process of anti-crisis management", explores the conceptual and methodological aspects of modeling the process of anti-crisis management. The essence of the concepts of anti-crisis management, insolvency, insolvency, bankruptcy are revealed; concepts of economic crisis. The goals and objectives of anti-crisis management of the enterprise are formulated. The concepts of classifications of crises are generalized, and a classification of the causes of crises is proposed. Analyzed and systematized the most relevant research in the field of assessing the probability of bankruptcy.
Second chapter"Development of methods and mathematical models of fuzzy-multiple analysis in anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises" is devoted to theoretical issues of developing methods and models of fuzzy-multiple analysis. The choice of the theory of fuzzy sets, the theory of experiment planning, as well as the method of forming Delphi expert surveys in the conditions of fuzzy expert information is substantiated. Basic algorithms and models are being developed.
In the third chapter"Implementation of the developed methods and models of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises" models and methods for assessing the probability of bankruptcy are implemented on the example of the selected enterprise - the object of study. The process of anti-crisis management is being studied.
10 in the form of an optimization of the function represented by the regression-polynomial equation. An anti-crisis management strategy based on the method of forming anti-crisis strategies is proposed. Practical recommendations for its implementation in practice are offered.
In custody the most significant scientific and practical results of the dissertation research are summarized, and the main conclusions and recommendations are formulated.
The essence, types and causes of crises in industrial enterprises
The concept of crisis has a lot of definitions and interpretations. Translated from Greek, the word “crisis” means “a sentence, a decision on an issue or in a doubtful situation”, and can also mean “a way out, a solution to a conflict (for example, a military one)”. The modern meaning of the word is often used by doctors: a crisis means a decisive phase in the development of a disease. Here we are talking about "crisis" when the disease becomes more severe, passes into another disease, or even ends in death. In this regard, we can recall Koselleck's laconic formulation: "a crisis is a barely measurable turning point, in which the solution is either death or life" .
In the XVII - XVIII centuries. the concept of a crisis began to be applied in relation to the processes taking place in society, such as military or political crises. In this case, an almost unchanged meaning of the crisis, taken from medicine, was used.
And finally, in the 19th century, the meaning shifted to economics. The "classic" economic concept of crisis, which was formed at that time, means an undesirable and dramatic phase in the capitalist economic system, characterized by fluctuations and negative phenomena or interference. In this sense, the concept of crisis has long occupied a firm place in the scheme of conjuncture theories. Thus, Spiethoff's cyclic scheme contains the following stages: recession - first rise - second rise - peak - lack of capital - crisis. In turn, the identification of the stages of economic development and the development of the theory of economic cycles made it possible to replace the "classical" definition of a crisis with a more ambiguous concept of "economic crisis". According to Mechlap's definition, we are talking about an economic crisis when "an undesirable state of economic relations arises, an unbearably critical situation for large segments of the population and the producing sectors of the economy" . At the same time, Sombart defines the economic crisis as "an economically negative phenomenon in which a massive danger to economic life and reality arises" .
In the economics of the enterprise, the concept of an enterprise crisis is used. In a broad sense, this means a process that threatens the existence of a business. The concept of an enterprise crisis in modern economic literature describes various phenomena in the life of an enterprise, from simple interference in the functioning through various conflicts, up to the destruction of an enterprise, which, according to Grenz, "at least for this enterprise can be characterized as catastrophic" . Further, the crisis of an enterprise can be understood as an unplanned and undesirable, time-limited process that can significantly interfere or even make it impossible for the functioning of an economic entity. At the same time, the fundamental (conceptual) goals of the enterprise that are under threat and the size of this threat, in turn, determine the strength of the crisis.
The crisis of the enterprise represents a turning point in the sequence of processes of events and actions. Typical for a crisis situation there are two ways out of it - either liquidation of the enterprise (bankruptcy) as an extreme form, or successful overcoming of the crisis.
The periods between the beginning and the end of the crisis are of different duration. On the one hand, there are long-term, slightly accelerating crisis processes, on the other hand, there are unexpectedly emerging crisis processes, of high intensity and with a short development period. A crisis can absolutely unexpectedly manifest itself during the harmonious development of an enterprise and be in the nature of an insurmountable catastrophe or arise in accordance with assumptions and calculations. But in rare cases, the emergence of a crisis is unexpected, that is, without any warning to the specialists (experts) of the enterprise.
In a crisis, the most important problem is management. The high complexity of management in this case allows, on the one hand, to influence the development of autonomous processes and, on the other hand, covers the specific problems of management, which consists in the need for its high quality and, in turn, the presence of only two options for the end result - bankruptcy. , or successfully overcome the crisis.
The most complete presentation of the signs of a crisis can be found in Wiener and Caan:
First, crises are a turning point in the evolving change of events and actions; they often form a situation in which urgency and urgency of action are of great importance; crises threaten the goals and values of the enterprise.
Secondly, crises reduce control over events, reduce reaction time to a minimum, cause a lack of available time, change relationships between participants, cause stress and fear among participants (management); moreover, the information at the disposal of the participants is usually insufficient.
Thirdly, the consequences of crises are difficult for the future of the participants involved, but at the same time they consist of events that create new conditions for success; crises bring uncertainty to the assessment of the situation and to the development of the necessary alternatives to overcome them.
Theoretical aspects of insolvency and bankruptcy
In order to achieve the goal set in the dissertation, it is necessary to consider the concept of bankruptcy in more detail. It should be noted that there is no unambiguous understanding of the etymology of the word "bankruptcy" in science. According to the compilers of the four-volume dictionary of the Russian language, the word "bankruptcy" comes from the French "banqueroute". The well-known researcher of the Russian language P. Chernykh is of the same opinion. But most researchers consider the etymological basis of the word "bankruptcy" to be two Italian words "banco" and "rotto", meaning "bench" and "broken". According to E. Freiheit, the concept of bankruptcy dates back to the 16th century and comes from the Italian “banca rotta”, which means “broken table” in Russian. According to historical data, creditor merchants broke the tables of insolvent money changers who were engaged in operations in the markets of the city-republics of medieval Italy (Venice, Genoa).
According to another point of view (M. Sobolev), the word "bankruptcy" comes from the word "bank". For various reasons, commercial banks in the Middle Ages very often became insolvent. In Russian, the word "bankruptcy" has been known (first with "y" after "r") since the Petrine era.
In our opinion, in domestic economic science there is a sufficient number of studies devoted to the analysis of the problems of insolvency (bankruptcy) of enterprises. Among them are the works of V.V. Glukhova, A.P. Gradova, B.I. Kuzina, M.D. Mednikova and some others. However, there are still insufficiently developed methods for overcoming the crisis and preventing the bankruptcy of enterprises in the context of the specifics of the Russian economy and uncertainty.
There are also disagreements in the scientific and conceptual apparatus. So, both lawyers and economists often do not distinguish between such concepts as insolvency, insolvency, bankruptcy. In most scientific papers and in practical articles, these concepts are used as synonyms.
Thus, in order to reveal the essence of the processes considered in the dissertation, it is necessary to distinguish in more detail these similar, but at the same time different, from an economic point of view, categories.
So, for example, V.V. Kovalev under the insolvency (bankruptcy) of the enterprise understands the inability to satisfy the requirements of creditors for payment for goods, works, services, including the inability to provide mandatory payments to the budget, to extra-budgetary funds, due to the unsatisfactory structure of the debtor's balance sheet. According to S.G. Belyaev, V.I. Koshkin, bankruptcy is a civilized procedure for liquidating a debtor, selling his property and settling accounts with creditors. The domestic legislator also does not differentiate between the concepts of bankruptcy and insolvency. In Art. 2 of the Federal Law of the Russian Federation “On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)”, bankruptcy is the inability recognized by the arbitration court or declared by the debtor to fully satisfy the claims of creditors for monetary obligations and (or) fulfill the obligation to make mandatory payments.
In foreign legislation, insolvency is understood as the inability of a person to pay off debt obligations, satisfied by the court, that is, his absolute insolvency. The concept of bankruptcy is used both as a synonym for the concept of insolvency, and in a narrow sense, describing a particular case of insolvency, when an insolvent debtor commits criminal acts that cause damage to creditors. Insolvency is considered as a preliminary assessment of the debtor, and bankruptcy is considered either as a final, court-established inability to pay off obligations, or as insolvency associated with illegal actions.
In our opinion, insolvency, which we understand as the inability of an enterprise to pay its obligations on time, does not appear immediately, but only at the last three stages of the business. Accordingly, three types of insolvency of the enterprise can be distinguished: - temporary insolvency; - acute insolvency; - chronic insolvency.
In foreign countries, bankruptcy procedures are applied only in case of chronic insolvency. The current Russian insolvency legislation is based not on the criterion of chronic insolvency, but on the concept of insolvency in general.
Unfortunately, until now, in many domestic economic studies on insolvency, there is no definition that reveals the content of this economic category. Researchers, at best, limit themselves to bringing the definition given in the Russian insolvency law and revealing its legal side, and at worst, do not disclose this concept at all. But it must be taken into account that the legal category of insolvency is completely derived from the economic category of insolvency.
According to a common tradition, insolvency is understood as the poor financial condition of an enterprise, characterized by its insolvency. Often in domestic studies, when studying this phenomenon, it is overlooked that insolvency is only an external form of its internal problems, or rather the result of unprofitable activity, as well as the impact of crisis processes.
The main provisions of the theory of fuzzy sets: fuzzy sets, fuzzy numbers and operations on them
The universe X is a universal set, to which all the results of the study of the object belong.
A fuzzy set A is a set of values of the universe X, such that each value of the universe X is associated with the degree of belonging of this value to the set A,
In other words, in accordance with the basic provisions of the theory of fuzzy sets, if each element x is associated with the degree of its membership in the fuzzy set R, then this membership is expressed by the number juA(x) on the interval . Such an extended concept of the membership function allows one to flexibly formalize and explore many quantitative and qualitative objects, concepts, events, representing them using a fuzzy formalized set (fuzzy set): VxeX A = ((x,(iA(x))l (2.1) where (X,/JA(X)) - a pair of components (singleton) composed of an element x and its membership function fiA(x) - the degree of membership of x in the set A.
The domain of definition tsA(x) will be the universe X (xe X) of the fuzzy set A: tsA:X SH,LsX. (2.2)
The change in the functional characteristics of the state of the object can be expressed as a vector X. Taking into account the fuzziness of the values of the vector x, -, where / = [i, її], any situation can be interpreted as a fuzzy singleton.
The class of states characterized by a common property is considered as a union of fuzzy sets. For example, to combine fuzzy sets A and B with membership functions juA(x) and j.iH(x), the fuzzy set A and B has a membership function: ALL) = niax(/ (х\/ів(х)), where х є X. (2.3)
In general, the envelope describing this union is a non-linear membership function.
In accordance with , the concept of a unimodal fuzzy number of LR-type is represented in the following form: A = (aAc), (2.4) where b is the average value (mode) of the fuzzy number; a and c are, respectively, the left and right boundaries of the possible variations of the fuzzy number (see Fig. 2.1). For such a fuzzy number, the membership function of the variable x to the fuzzy set A has the form: J7,(1 - (b - x)la)x b,a 0 (2.5) where L and R - (L eft - left and R ight - right) functions of the increasing and decreasing parts of the membership function of the fuzzy number, respectively.
Operations on fuzzy numbers are introduced through operations on membership functions based on the so-called segment principle.
Let the membership level a be defined as the ordinate of the membership function of a fuzzy number. Then the intersection of the membership function with a fuzzy number gives a pair of values, which are called the boundaries of the confidence interval.
Let the membership level a be fixed and the corresponding confidence intervals be determined by two fuzzy numbers A and B: [ ,] and fo, ], respectively. Then the main operations with fuzzy numbers are reduced to operations with their confidence intervals. And operations with intervals, in turn, are expressed through operations with real numbers - the boundaries of the intervals: 1) the operation of "addition": 2) the operation of "subtraction": - \u003d 3) the operation of "multiplication": [a1, a2] x [d ],d2]=[a, x.bVta2 xb2] 4) “division” operation; 5) operation "exponentiation":
Analyzing the properties of nonlinear operations with fuzzy numbers (for example, division), researchers come to the conclusion that the form of the membership functions of the resulting fuzzy numbers is often close to triangular. This allows you to approximate the result, bringing it to a triangular (unimodal) form. And, if there is reducibility, then operations with triangular (unimodal) numbers are reduced to operations with the abscissas of the vertices of their membership functions.
That is, if a description of a unimodal number is introduced by a set of vertex abscissas L = (a,b,c), then we can write: (ax,bx,cx) + (a2,b2ic2) = (ax+a2,bx+b2,cx+ c2)
Therefore, in this dissertation research, it is LR-type unimodal fuzzy numbers that will be used.
The concept of a linguistic variable makes it possible to adequately represent an approximate verbal description and draw an appropriate conclusion even in the case when a deterministic description is absent or impossible in principle. The use of linguistic variables is very characteristic of human activity connected with approximate reasoning 64 . When simulating such activities, it is necessary to build mathematical models that allow, on the one hand, to represent these variables, on the other hand, to process them accordingly.
Fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic form the basis of the linguistic approach, in which the variables involved in the analytical description of the model can take on linguistic values.
A linguistic variable is characterized by a set of components: P = ,7 ,), (2-6) where x is the name of the linguistic variable; T - term-set or set of values; D- domain of definition (universe).
Linguistic variables according to can be divided into qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative.
So, for example, the linguistic variable "management level" can be represented by a certain set of components according to (2.6). It is obvious that this variable is of a qualitative nature, but presenting it in a fuzzy form does not cause difficulties (Fig. 2.2).
Development of a model for assessing the probability of bankruptcy
An adequate model of the anti-crisis management process, obtained as a result of 2.4, has the form of a polynomial of the first degree. The economic meaning of the obtained model is that it represents an adequate mathematical model of the anti-crisis management process. The polynomial coefficients are the partial derivatives of the response function with respect to the respective variables. Their geometric meaning is the tangents of the angles of inclination of the hyperplane to the corresponding axis. A larger absolute value of the coefficient corresponds to a larger angle of inclination and, consequently, a more significant change in the optimization parameter when this factor changes.
The primary task - the interpretation of the model, is solved in several stages:
1) If there are significant linear effects of interactions in the model, these effects are replaced by new factors (for example, if there is an interaction in the model (х1х2) and the number of factors is 5, the factor х5=(ххх2) is added to the model). Thus, a full factorial experiment becomes a fractional factorial experiment with an appropriate number of replicas (interaction effects).
2) It is established to what extent each of the factors affects the optimization parameter. The value of the regression coefficient is a quantitative measure of this influence. The larger the coefficient, the stronger the influence of the factor. The signs of the coefficients indicate the nature of the influence of factors. The plus sign indicates that with an increase in the value of the factor, the value of the optimization parameter increases, and with a minus sign, it decreases. The interpretation of signs during optimization depends on whether the maximum or minimum of the response function is sought.
Further analysis of the model involves moving along a gradient.
A gradient is a vector that shows the direction of the fastest change of some quantity, the value of which changes from one point in space to another. The gradient gradfp of a continuous single-valued function is a vector: ;i,j,...,k are unity vectors and directions of factor axes.
According to Taylor's theorem on the expansion of an analytic function in a series, the partial derivatives of a function with respect to factors are equal in magnitude and sign to the corresponding regression coefficients. Consequently, the gradient gradY of the response function (of the enterprise bankruptcy probability function) Y is a vector; gradY -b(i + b2j + .,.+ bkk, (2.34)
Moving along a gradient provides the shortest path to the optimum, since the direction of the gradient is the direction of the steepest slope from a given point to the top. The economic meaning of gradY is that gradY is a mathematical model of the optimal strategy for the process of anti-crisis management of an enterprise.
If you change the factors in proportion to their coefficients, taking into account the sign, then the movement to the optimum will be carried out along the steepest path. This process of moving towards the optimum region is called a steep ascent. Those. the economic meaning of this movement towards the optimum is a set of managerial decisions to exit the enterprise from the crisis phase of activity.
The technique of calculating a steep ascent should be considered using the example of a problem with one factor xx. Assume that curve 1 is an unknown response function. As a result of the implementation of the experiment plan with the center at point O, the regression equation y = bQ + blxl was obtained, adequately describing the response function in the range of x) values from -1 to +1. The value of the regression coefficient bx is equal to the tangent of the angle between the regression line and the axis of this factor. If the step of movement along the xx axis is taken equal to /C, then, multiplying it by 6, we obtain the coordinates (Axx u, /) of the point A lying on the gradient. After the second step, the distance along the x-axis) will be equal to 2/Z. Multiplying 2Art by bx, we find the coordinates 2Ax( and 2 points B lying on the gradient, etc. Then, experiments are carried out with conditions corresponding to points on the gradient. Based on the results of these experiments, the optimum region is determined. In practical problems, to reduce the volume of the experiment, not all, but only a part of the experiments provided for by a steep ascent.The conditions for carrying out are chosen so that the optimum area can be enclosed in a "fork" After that, the experiments are carried out at the points of the interval formed by the points of the "fork" until the best result is found.
The arbitration manager is a highly paid and sought-after type of professional activity
The question of employment, the choice of the type of professional activity arises before any person who is looking for a new job, or is trying to find a job, or is preparing for dismissal, including from law enforcement agencies.
How to adapt and find a job in the conditions of unemployment in a new place? How to get a highly paid, and not least, a prestigious and sought-after profession in the labor market?
In Russia, practitioners, managers and employees of commercial organizations, banks, employees of government agencies, employees of law enforcement agencies and law enforcement agencies constantly ask themselves these questions, striving to improve the quality of their lives, to career growth, to improve their well-being.
Trying to understand these difficult issues, we decided to tell our readers about such a highly paid, sought-after, but obscure profession for many Russians as arbitration manager.
And today we are having our conversation with the Deputy Director of the Private Educational Institution of Additional Professional Education (PHOU DPO) "Academy of Personal Security", Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Honorary Worker of Higher Education of the Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation Perfiliev Alexander Borisovich, having rich experience in training arbitration managers .
Alexander Borisovich, at the beginning of our conversation, let's clarify the essence of the very concept of "arbitrator" and determine its possible legal status.
The arbitration manager in the exercise of his powers, first of all, relies on the norms and provisions of the Federal Law "On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)" dated October 26, 2002 No. 127-FZ, in Art. 2 of which it is said that “an arbitration manager is a citizen of the Russian Federation who is a member of a self-regulatory organization of arbitration managers.” At the same time, it must be understood that, depending on the types of bankruptcy procedures being carried out, the status of an arbitration manager may be different.
In the event of a bankruptcy proceeding such as observation» the arbitration manager acquires the status of "interim manager", when conducting the procedure " financial recovery» he acquires the status of "administrative manager", and if a procedure is introduced with respect to an insolvent debtor " external management”, then in this case the arbitration manager acquires the status of “external manager”.
When the case against an insolvent debtor reaches bankruptcy, that is, a procedure is introduced "competitive production" and the mechanism for the sale of his property is launched, then the arbitration manager acquires the status of a “bankruptcy manager”.
Well, if a bankruptcy procedure has been initiated in relation to an insolvent citizen, then the arbitration manager acquires the status of " financial manager».
Here it is appropriate to note that the introduction of a particular bankruptcy procedure in relation to an insolvent debtor and the appointment of a particular candidate as an arbitration manager is carried out by the Arbitration Court of the Russian Federation, and accordingly, we can say that the arbitration manager this is the legal representative of the Arbitration Court carrying out bankruptcy proceedings.
Please tell me, Alexander Borisovich, how much are arbitration managers in demand on the labor market in modern Russia?
Judge for yourself. Over the past two decades in our country, the Arbitration Courts of the Russian Federation annually recognize from 30 thousand to 80 thousand organizations of various forms of ownership as financially insolvent (bankrupt), as evidenced by the statistics of the Arbitration Court itself, published on its official website.
In addition, it is necessary to take into account the fact that, starting from October 15, 2015, amendments to bankruptcy legislation regarding the bankruptcy of citizens (individuals) came into effect, and according to preliminary estimates of specialists, in the coming years they will be recognized as financially insolvent, and even bankrupt from 800 thousand. before 1.2 million Russians, in respect of which the relevant bankruptcy procedures will be carried out - the procedure for "debt restructuring" or the procedure for "realization of property".
At the same time, one cannot fail to note the aspect that mass processes associated with the bankruptcy of individuals have already begun, and the fact that citizens and individual entrepreneurs who have lost the opportunity to fully pay off loans, who have lost the ability to repay debts to business partners in a timely manner, debts for mortgages and housing and communal services, they themselves seek to initiate an appropriate bankruptcy procedure against themselves.
This, strange at first glance, circumstance is due to the fact that if the arbitration financial manager competently, observing all the requirements of the law, conducts such a bankruptcy procedure as “realization of property” against a citizen, then all debts of a citizen, even if they reach millions of values , will be “written off” from him by the decision of the Arbitration Court and he will not owe anything to anyone.
Of course, in all these cases, bankruptcy procedures for legal entities and individuals are carried out and will be carried out, which last from six months to 2 years, only by representatives of the Arbitration Court of the Russian Federation - arbitration (temporary, administrative, external, competitive and financial) managers.
At the same time, it should be borne in mind that there are about 12,000 arbitration managers currently practicing in Russia. Based on the number of initiated insolvency (bankruptcy) cases and the number of active arbitration managers, it is not difficult to conclude that the modern labor market is in need of tens of thousands of trained arbitration managers, and this need is only growing.
Alexander Borisovich, this may be the most important question for our readers: “What is the salary of an arbitration manager”?
First of all, I want to clarify that the arbitration manager does not receive a salary, but a monetary reward, the amount of which is established not by the director of a financially insolvent organization, not by creditors, not by a bankrupt citizen, but directly by the Arbitration Court.
Moreover, the monetary remuneration of the arbitration manager is formed from two components- from fixed amounts which is paid monthly throughout the course of the bankruptcy proceedings, and from the sum paid to the anti-crisis manager upon completion of a particular bankruptcy procedure.
When setting the amount of the monetary reward, the Arbitration Court of the Russian Federation, of course, is guided by the norms set forth in Art. 20.6 of the Federal Law "On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)" dated October 26, 2002 No. 127-FZ, which reflects the minimum amount of a fixed amount of remuneration for an arbitration manager established during the relevant bankruptcy procedure.
In particular, the minimum fixed amount of remuneration is for:
temporary manager - 30 thousand rubles a month;
administrative manager - 15 thousand rubles a month;
external manager - 45 thousand rubles per month;
bankruptcy trustee - 30 thousand rubles a month;
financial manager - 25 thousand rubles at a time.
The second part of the reward, paid to the arbitration manager upon completion of a particular bankruptcy procedure, is calculated in percents from the value of the property of an insolvent organization or from the amount of repaid debts.
I draw your attention to the fact that the second part of the remuneration, which is completely legally received by the arbitration manager who has completed the bankruptcy procedure, very significant and can reach tens of thousands, or even several hundred thousand rubles. The curious and interested reader himself can determine the amounts of the second part of the remuneration of the arbitration manager by looking, using the Internet, in paragraphs. 9-13 Art. 20.6 of the Federal Law "On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)" dated October 26, 2002 No. 127-FZ.
Determining the income that a practicing arbitration manager may have, it cannot be said that an experienced anti-crisis manager can simultaneously carry out several bankruptcy procedures for various legal entities and several bankruptcy procedures for individuals.
It is quite clear that the total monetary reward of such an experienced arbitration manager can be very significant, even by the standards of the capital.
The following questions follow from the logic of our conversation: “Who can obtain the status of an arbitration manager and what professional requirements are placed on him”?
The main professional requirements for arbitration managers are defined in Art. 20 of the Federal Law "On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)" dated October 26, 2002 No. 127-FZ, which states that a person who can become an arbitration manager must:
- Be a citizen of the Russian Federation.
- Have a higher (no matter what, but higher) education.
- Pass a theoretical exam on the "Unified training program for arbitration managers".
- Be a member of one of the self-regulatory organizations of arbitration managers.
- Have at least one year of senior management experience.
- Complete an internship as an assistant arbitration manager in a bankruptcy case for at least two years.
- Not to be punished in the form of disqualification for committing an administrative offense or in the form of deprivation of the right to hold certain positions or engage in certain activities for committing a crime.
- Not have a criminal record for an intentional crime.
- Alexander Borisovich, the next question is also ripe: “Where can I get training and pass a theoretical exam in the training program for arbitration managers”?
First of all, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that, in accordance with the requirements of Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of May 28, 2003 N 308, the state theoretical exam in the "Unified training program for arbitration managers" is conducted by the Federal Service for Registration, Cadastre and Cartography of the Russian Federation (Rosreestr) together with teachers and on the basis of the educational institution in which the student studied. True, when submitting a corresponding application to the Rosreestr, the state theoretical exam can be assigned to applicants for passing the exam directly in the region in which they live.
But, in order for a candidate to be allowed to pass such a theoretical exam, he must first undergo professional retraining and successfully master the “Unified Training Program for Arbitration Managers”, approved by order of the Ministry of Economic Development dated December 10, 2009 No. 517.
Moreover, it should be noted that Rosreestr takes the state exam only for students of those educational institutions that have “Agreements on cooperation in the field of training (retraining) of arbitration managers” concluded with it.
Judging by the information posted on the website of the Federal Service for Registration, Cadastre and Cartography of the Russian Federation, the number of educational institutions in Russia that have concluded a "Cooperation Agreement ..." is no more than a hundred.
Such an “Agreement on cooperation in the field of training and retraining of arbitration managers” is also provided by the Private Security Academy, where I work.
A distinctive feature of teaching the "Unified training program for arbitration managers" in the Private Security Academy is that the entire educational process takes place remotely, using the Internet, e-mail, webinars and recorded video lectures.
As my practice shows , a modern educated person in the twentiethIcentury, in the age of information technology, simply does not want, or even does not have the opportunity to study, sitting at a desk 2-3 evenings a week for 3 months, while training courses for arbitration managers last.
Usually students of professional retraining courses, including potential arbitration managers, located anywhere in the world, wish to study in modeson- lineoroff- linelooking at monitors their favorite computers and reviewing the learning material at their convenience as many times as they see fit.
When deciding on training, your readers need to be aware that training under the “Unified Training Program for Arbitration Managers”, approved by order of the Ministry of Economic Development of December 10, 2009 No. 517, is paid in all educational institutions.
In the PEI DPO "Academy of Personal Security", the tuition fee for this academic year is set at 28 thousand rubles. for one listener. True, the cost of training sometimes changes, which can be found out by “going” to our website.
The issue of future employment is particularly acute for officers preparing for dismissal and for members of their families. Officers transferred to the reserve, as a rule, are healthy, have rich practical experience in managerial activities, have a higher education, but it is difficult for them to adapt and find a job in the so-called "citizen". I can judge this from my own experience - after 23 years of service in the Russian Armed Forces, having retired with the rank of lieutenant colonel, I had to "taste all the delights" of finding a decent job. There was only one conclusion - only professional retraining, only an increase in the level of one's own competencies, and not personal acquaintances and so-called "connections", will allow one to find a decent job.
Taking into account the fact that during the development of the "Unified Program for the Training of Arbitration Managers" students study a wide range of issues and topics related to: legal support for entrepreneurial activity; bankruptcy laws; taxation of legal entities and individuals; accounting and reporting; analysis of the financial condition of organizations; evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects; appraisal activity, etc., I would recommend mastering this program for employees of financial and economic structures, and practicing lawyers, and heads of organizations.
And especially to managers, since it is they who are responsible for the results of the financial and economic activities of the organizations entrusted to them, and it is they who, in the event of the loss of the solvency of their firms, can bear both material and administrative, as well as criminal liability for fictitious, deliberate bankruptcy, and for illegal actions during bankruptcy proceedings.
Of course, I recommend training under this program to bank employees, employees of insurance companies, and representatives of microfinance organizations, where the risk of bankruptcy, and, accordingly, the risk of dismissal is very high.
In my opinion, having mastered the “Unified training program for arbitration managers” in 3 months and having received a diploma on professional retraining in the field of anti-crisis management, both unemployed people and university graduates will significantly increase their chances of finding a job.
When deciding to study under this program, students, in my opinion, should not pay attention to their initial basic higher education - anyone with a higher education can master this program.
As my practice shows, not only people with a higher legal or economic education, but also engineers, and former military personnel, and military pilots, and, to my surprise, people with a higher medical education, work very successfully as arbitration managers.
Upon completion of professional retraining, persons receive a Diploma of Professional Retraining (see Diploma form).
If your readers have any questions, feel free to contact me using my personal e-mail: or phone 8-915-969-60-12
Perfiliev A.B.
