A recent study conducted by scientists at Oxford University showed that some professions that are in demand in our time will no longer be relevant in the coming decades, because all the functions of specialists will be performed by robots. We will talk about 10 professions that will soon be unnecessary.
10. Maintenance staff
Service staff will consist of robots in 10-20 yearsIt is in the service sector that robots will first come to replace people. There is nothing to be surprised here - they are more reliable, faster, stronger. Robots do not need to be paid a salary, they do not make mistakes due to inattention and will not be able to due to bad mood to be rude to a client who seemed too picky to them.
Already today, part of the customer service systems is automated. In any major city you can find ATMs, terminals for paying for various services, vending machines for food, self-service checkouts, automated parking lots. In the last 2 years, even libraries have started laying off their employees and replacing them with robots. So far, this trend has not gained a mass character, but there is no doubt that this is a matter of time.
And what a marvelous invention electronic queues have been that have saved people from constant arguments about who is in front of whom, isn't it?
This is interesting: American giant in the field retail Wal-Mart Stores is building a fully automated warehouse. It is planned to start functioning in 2016.
9. Waiters
Robot waiters will replace people Restaurants are already open in the world, on the tables in which tablets are installed that take orders from visitors. Waiters just bring dishes to the right table. And in one of the Chinese restaurants, robots are already doing even this today, so there is not a single waiter there.
There is no doubt that in ten years most establishments Catering prefer robots to manpower. Most likely, by that time they will have learned not only to take orders and bring dishes, but even put them on the tables. By the way, after that, chefs will gradually be replaced with robots. Processing products, mixing ingredients in the right proportions and performing other manipulations is not difficult for them. This will help maintain the quality of cooking at a consistently high level, which customers will only be happy about.
8. Support specialists
Robots in the support service will answer any questions from customers Calling the support service, we increasingly hear the voice of an answering machine on the other end of the line. If you are interested in one question, they offer to press the "1" button, if another - the "2" button, and so on. It comes down to the need to contact the operator only in rare cases, because most often an automated answering machine is able to give an exhaustive answer to a question of interest to a person.
It is worth mentioning online consultations on Internet services. Robots were taught to form responses by analyzing the text of the message. For example, if you ask the bank support service a question online about how to unblock a credit card, the system will automatically generate and display necessary information. If the question is not clear, you will be prompted to select the desired section of reference information by clicking on one of the options.
In the future, such automated systems will appear in almost every office, and it will be very convenient to conduct a dialogue with robots. Perhaps scientists will bring it closer to the level of ordinary human communication. To do this, it is enough to train robots to recognize and analyze human speech. Artificial intelligence systems have already been invented that have approached this bar at arm's length - remember at least the Sirie online assistant on the iPhone.
7. Real estate agents
Real estate agents will soon become redundant This is interesting: And in 10-15 years, even the presence of a human agent will no longer be mandatory when inspecting real estate. The program will independently answer your questions, and if necessary, even open the locked door of the inspected room. You just need to install a lock on it, which opens automatically when it receives a signal sent via the Internet.
6. Journalists
Journalists will be supplanted by programs with artificial intelligence Even such creative profession, as a journalist, may become unclaimed. Analysts predict that in 15 years, 9 out of 10 news articles will be generated automatically by computers. Forbes magazine already today uses the services of robotic journalists to create and verify annual reports, and in the Big Ten Network, robots quickly write and publish the latest sports news.
Search new job after 2020, most copywriters will have to. Experts are sure that functional programs with artificial intelligence connected to databases with text materials (laws, works of art, scientific literature) will be able to generate articles in some genres without human intervention. Prototypes of such programs - synonymizers, exist today, but only the quality of the text they create leaves much to be desired.
5. Pharmacists
Robotic pharmacists will produce medicines AT medical center The University of San Francisco has an experimental robot that creates new drugs.
The day is approaching when leading companies will begin to commercialize pharmaceutical robots. The efficiency and productivity of machines is ten times higher than similar human indicators. Robots will never get tired or make mistakes because of inattention. It is clear why large pharmaceutical companies with a billion-dollar turnover, they see only advantages in replacing people with machines. Therefore, pharmacists will be one of the first to be replaced by robots. This is expected to happen by 2020.
4. Drivers
Robots will replace drivers on the roads Following Google, other giants of the automotive industry began to develop their own automatic control systems. vehicles. As soon as two or three of them develop an accessible and easy-to-implement concept, the process of total mechanization will begin in this area. And our children will learn about the profession of a driver only from old films and adult stories.
In 2014, experts tested up to 10 cars that can do without drivers. So, a car from Google Corporation drove over 1 million kilometers along busy US highways without ever getting into an accident. In Australia, 45 "unmanned" vehicles are now being tested.
In replacing drivers automated systems only benefits can be seen. Firstly, they do not get tired and can work without interruption 24 hours a day. Secondly, liquidation human factor help to reduce the number of accidents on the roads by tens or even hundreds of times and, therefore, save millions of lives.
3. Soldiers
Robot soldiers will reduce the number of victims The military industry is developing by leaps and bounds. Combat systems are constantly being upgraded, regularly surprising us with technological innovations. And the military is increasingly using robots. Unmanned aerial vehicles are widely used aircrafts, anti-aircraft systems remote control, demining robots and other machines.
The speed of robotization of the armies of the leading countries will only grow. And this is good news. History shows that people cannot live without conflicts, but robots will at least reduce the number of victims. Another argument in favor of machines is that they will not get tired, will not make mistakes and will not go over to the side of the enemy. And tirelessness makes them ideal soldiers.
2. Teachers
Robot teachers will teach in schools Teaching is one of the most honored professions today. But in 10-20 years pedagogical universities may be closed as unnecessary. Researchers are constantly working to create intelligent machines that can teach people about specific disciplines. Robots are also taught to interact with people, to conduct a natural dialogue. This helps students understand the material better.
This is interesting: In South Korea, the government has approved a program to introduce robot teachers into the educational process. A machine called Engkey is already teaching children the basics of math, science, grammar and other sciences. Of course, while not everything is perfect for him, but scientists are constantly upgrading the robot. And the company that created Engkey has already received hundreds of orders for similar machines.
1. Doctors
Robotic doctors will perform complex operations Can you imagine a future without doctors? If not, it's time to start getting used to such a thought. Medicine is developing rapidly, and the gradual robotization of this profession is already gaining momentum. In the last 5 years, thousands of complex operations have been performed by robots that could not be trusted to living people. Machines are more accurate and faster than humans.
Leading clinics practice "remote" operations, in which the surgeon controls the actions of the robot, being in another corner of the globe.
In the near future, any operations will be performed by robots. They will also see patients, diagnose them, vaccinate them and keep medical records.
Total robotization of dozens of areas, according to experts, will occur in the next 15 years. There is no doubt that this will greatly improve the quality of our lives. It will be bad only for people who are forced to master new profession and look for another job.
Robot and human: who will win?People are more likely not afraid of hell, but that the day will soon come when robots will “seize the initiative” in their metal hands and take over the world. In the world of science fiction, many stories were written in the 1920s and 1930s, the theme of which was robots that rebelled and destroyed their creators. Many fantastic stories come true after some time. This is true, but science fiction writers invented robots many years ago. And for some reason they never appeared on our streets. Why? Many things interfere with this, including the person himself.
Borrow, not replace
If we imagine robots as a different form of life, then it is logical that they will live according to their own laws and will arrange themselves in a way that is convenient for them, if they still prevail over people. But a robot is not another form of life, because life is a physiological existence. Animal or person. A robot is just a mechanical machine that performs tasks assigned by a person. It turns out that even if the robots succeed in something, they will not replace people, but simply occupy them workplace.
And if we rephrase the question and take a slightly different source data? For example: can frogs replace crickets? Or can antelopes replace elephants? Obviously not. They can take a habitat, but not replace.
Feeling is an important component
Quite a lot of actions that do not require human effort may be simply impossible for robots. For example, it is not so easy for them to calculate the force of gripping a hand when shaking hands, they do not walk and run well, unlike people, but besides all this: they are not subject to feelings and emotions.
Robots will never replace humans unless they learn to feel. But our metal assistants do not need feelings and emotions, because this will only “clutter up” their work: feelings and emotions in work are like a huge number of open programs that slow down the process. There was a scientist in Varshavsky's story "There are no alarming symptoms" who was no longer doing his job so well. According to the story, people could rejuvenate their organs through surgery and live forever. The scientist performed an operation to clear his brain, but after that he forgot his dead son, stopped recognizing him in the photographs. He got rid of memories, feelings, but lost his humanity.
Robots may be similar in function to us, but we need feelings and memories, while they will prevent robots from quickly and accurately performing actions.
What will happen if robots work instead of people?
The number of jobs will be reduced. Bank of England economists have calculated possible losses. As a result of the study, they found that in the case of replacing a person in different areas approximately 15 million people will lose their jobs in the UK alone and about 80 in the US.
First of all, office employees who perform clerical work and settlement functions of the simplest class will be fired. Since labor that does not carry a significant mental load can be performed without problems by robotics.
According to "financial Times» all those who work in social sphere and the healthcare sector. And if robots still take the positions of people, at least partially, then the need forIT-specialists and workers with technical knowledge.
"The Value Limitation Problem"
This is the most significant problem in robotics. Metal machines do not understand what "earth" or "air" means. But people themselves do not know the meaning of the word, they just understand it. Of course, an explanation of the word can be introduced into the machine so that the robot will recognize the object in the future, but a step to the left or right of the template, and now the robot cannot recognize it, while a person will not have problems with this.
People create a huge number of dictionaries and databases, where they record all sorts of word meanings. But this is a partial solution: if what the robot is talking about is in its database, then it will understand. What if the word doesn't exist?
And if the robots seize the initiative and force the man out of the Earth?
To begin with, let's figure out what motivates a person to take over the world? Fear of hunger and competition, the need for security and the desire to feel omnipotent.
Now back to robots. Do they have fear? No. And why? A clear analysis of the situation, calculation and efficiency. Do robots have egocentrism and pride? No. The idea of freedom, equality, the thirst for power and other virtual concepts cannot be programmed into a robot, they do not have evaluation criteria. Before a robot takes over the world, first a human will explain to him what it is and how to do it. And this is impossible, since "freedom" and "independence" have an abstract meaning.
As no animal will fight for freedom, independence and power over the world, so robots will not.
Of course, it is possible to program a command to exterminate humanity into a robot, but as soon as this is done, the civilization of robots will disappear, since now there will be no one to serve the robots and no one will control them. Or people just kill each other with the help of robots. And again: neither robots will remain on Earth, nor people.
Interestingly enough, but humanity never took over the world. Although it was studied so much, it was divided into different sectors. In his power are only certain parts of the Earth and only those where you can survive. Robots can survive in larger places than humans. Take at least the vast space. That's whyNASAactively introduces robotics in astronautics? Because it simplifies the analysis of the surface of space bodies for people, because the robots do not need oxygen or rest. But although they do not know fear, they are not afraid of pain, they are hardy to high temperatures - they are still bad astronauts. The information that the rover collects for several months can be obtained much faster by a person, because he knows how many meters to travel and where to approach, no one controls him. He does it on his own on a subconscious level.
That is, robots will always be at the mercy of people?
To begin with, let's figure out what “power” is and what “in power” means. As Ozhegov's dictionary tells us, power is the right / ability to dispose of someone or something, to subordinate to one's will. Then we translate this question using the definition: “So people will always be able to control robots?”
Complete, all-encompassing power does not exist and its achievement is impossible. And if we consider it as a right or an opportunity, then it is available to everyone.
It's the same with freedom. We can do anything, but within the limits set by civilization itself. In fact, no authority can legally interfere with our activities. They can punish, but interfere ... In rare cases. It turns out that citizens are free, but for certain of their actions there is a price in the form of responsibility. It turns out that everyone has freedom. Or not? Everyone will answer his own, which will prove the abstractness of the concept.
And do such abstract concepts as "power", "freedom" need a robot?
Robot to help, not to replace
Robots are now in almost all areas of human activity. For example, in October 2016, the media wrote thatfoxconn, the largest electronics manufacturer, outsourced a large number of operations to 40,000 robots, thereby reducing human jobs by 60,000. But this only means that the labor crisis is growing in this way.
But still, a person will remain indispensable in professions that require an approach that is not “according to a template”: in journalism, psychology, music, art ... And if robots come to replace us in some areas of activity, then a person, in our opinion, without difficulty you can find yourself in creative activity.
The classic science fiction writer Isaac Asimov, in his essay "The Laws of Robotics", came to the conclusion, which we also support, that even if computers become intelligent enough to "seize the initiative" in their metal hands, they will no longer need restrictions. And then, as Asimov writes, “out of the kindness of their hearts, they will decide to take care of us and protect us from troubles and problems.” But it is unlikely that this will ever happen, because from the point of view of psychology, there is simply no point in robots replacing people or taking over the world, because they work only as an auxiliary element that simplifies the life of mankind.
Do not be afraid that robots will replace humans - this will not happen in the foreseeable future. And that's why.
Robots are unable to perform complex and creative tasks
According to estimates by the American investment bank Merrill Lynch, as early as 2016, robots took away the work of 1.5 million people. Basically, they took the positions of people who performed routine tasks. production tasks. And this is just the beginning: Merrill Lynch believes that by 2025, robots will already be performing 45% of manufacturing tasks.
In industry, robots have no equal: they tirelessly perform boring monotonous work, make fewer mistakes than people, and of course, they never get sick or go on vacation.
So what is left for people?
The person of the future will be able to apply for vacancies that require non-standard thinking, deep analytics and high level professionalism. Even in the same industry, according to a Merrill Lynch report, 80% of industrialists complain about a shortage of highly skilled workers. And the report of the World Economic Forum (WEF) predicts the emergence by 2020 of 2 million new jobs that are inaccessible to robots: these are managerial positions, vacancies in the field of programming and data analysis, architecture, training, engineering positions.
Futurist Ian Pearson adds that human-only creativity will protect creative professions from robotization.
In the near future, robots will not be able to completely replace humans in medicine either. Artificial intelligence is already learning to decipher tests and X-rays and will soon be able to make simple diagnoses. But in difficult cases, you still need the experience of a living doctor and his non-standard thinking. Dr. House from the car - this is still from the realm of fantasy.
The same goes for robot-assisted surgery: machines today help surgeons perform operations where the most precise movements are needed, but they are still controlled by people. And if something goes wrong during the operation, the doctor will immediately intervene in the process. Even if some simple surgical interventions are fully automated in the future, the robot will still be assisted by a person - after all, the machine is not able to take into account all non-standard scenarios, and a living surgeon can improvise.
Robots don't have empathy
And therefore they are unlikely to be able to replace, for example, school teachers. Yes, all the information from the school course can now be found on Google. And theoretically, the teacher can already be replaced today with a “talking head”. And in the literal sense: Russian developers from the Neurobotics company, for example, thought about using Pushkin's robotic head for literature lessons in schools.
But the robot will still not replace a living teacher, Ian Pearson is sure. "A robot will never be able to understand a child because it doesn't have the necessary human experience," he says.
The same applies to professions that require emotions and empathy - for example, a psychologist, coach, personnel manager, whose duties include motivating employees. Experts of the World Economic Forum agree with this: in their opinion, in the future one of competitive advantage the person in front of the robot when applying for a job will be precisely emotional intelligence.
“On an emotional level, a person will always be able to interact better with another person than any robot,” Ian Pearson is sure.
Interestingly, according to polls, a quarter of young people are ready to have a relationship with a robot.
Robots do not know how to deviate from given algorithms
Even the most advanced robot will "live" according to the given algorithms. In electronic brains, it is possible to prescribe in detail, "what to do if ...". But it is impossible to take into account all the variety of options regarding all the tasks that a person faces daily.
Now researchers from Microsoft and the University of Cambridge are working to create a robotic platform for programming. But here's the problem: a robot programmer can only reproduce algorithms that are similar to those that a person has already come up with.
To create something fundamentally new robots are not yet under the force - only people can do it. At least until artificial intelligence learns to behave in the same way as the human brain - and experts believe that this will not happen in the coming decades.
Robots don't have intuition
This illogical, almost mystical ability, peculiar only to man, often helps to make the right decisions contrary to facts and logic. Laura Ellis, executive vice president of real estate agency Baird & Warner, explains this with a real estate agent. “Home buyers often describe their wishes in great detail. Using technology, I can easily find them a 100% match according to formal criteria. But then the following happens: we go into the house, and after three seconds it is clear - this is not it. It is not difficult to find a suitable “on paper” house - artificial intelligence can easily cope with this by checking the databases. It is much harder to find buyers a home to their liking. The choice of housing is strongly determined by intuition and emotions,” says Laura Ellis.
"Glitches" will always be
The vast majority of Americans (88%) hate waiting and jostling in checkout lines. Automatic scanners could be a good alternative, relieve cashiers and save shoppers time.
However, three-quarters of the same respondents say they avoid self-checkouts due to possible technical problems. And if you can always agree with a person in case of an error, then if a robotic cashier breaks down, the buyer is helpless. And in order to fix the problem, you still need a person.
That is why even a huge number of robots in all areas will not be able to completely displace a person from production and the service sector. Robots themselves - the need to regularly maintain and repair them - will create many new jobs for people, especially for programmers and engineers.
“Robots are really already more or less in everything better people, except for creative tasks and non-standard situations, - says Vyacheslav Opakhin, editor-in-chief of the Hi-Tech Mail.Ru project. - But if artificial intelligence reaches the next levels, we will find ourselves in a more difficult situation.
People are often no longer able to distinguish whether they are talking in a chat with a bot or with a real person. Neural networks write music, and we do not take it seriously just because of the well-established understanding of who is the creator here. If these norms are removed, will robot melodies become a masterpiece?
The world will one day become as automated as possible. And this does not mean that pieces of iron will roam everywhere instead of people - systems will make a person's life easier.
The task of people is to lay such foundations in artificial intelligence so that numerous robots (from robotic vacuum cleaners to unmanned vehicles) do not even think that without a person on this planet is also not bad. Or at least it took a very long time to come to this idea.
The latest technology is rapidly changing our lives. Artificial intelligence, blockchain, 3D printing, robotization and other innovations not only help people solve various problems, but also force people to change jobs and master new competencies. According to a study by the World Economic Forum, by 2020 technology will have over five million jobs. Kevin Kelly in Inevitably. 12 technological trends that determine our future” (published by Mann, Ivanov and Ferber) told what people will do when they lose their usual jobs, and what human skills will be inaccessible to robots for a long time to come.
Before the end of this century, 70% of today's jobs will be automated, including the one you're currently doing. In other words, the penetration of robots into all spheres of human life is inevitable and the replacement of human specialists by them is only a matter of time. This shift is predetermined by the second wave of automation, which focuses on artificial cognition, cheap sensors, machine learning, and distributed intelligence. Such a broad process of automation will affect all types of employment: from manual to intellectual labor.
When people start working together with robots, their tasks will inevitably merge, and soon the work that people did will become a task for robots, and it’s hard for us to even imagine a new job that will be in the area of responsibility of people.
Let's break the relationship between humans and robots into four categories to better understand the process of human replacement.
- Jobs that humans can do but robots do better
Humans can weave, but automated looms produce perfect fabric at a very low cost. The only reason you can buy a handmade thing today is if you want it to have a twist as a result of imperfection due to human production. However, probably few people want to have a car with a twist. It's hard to appreciate broken equipment when you're driving at 110 km/h on a freeway, so the logical conclusion is that the less human factor in the production of cars, the better.
And yet, when more complex duties are required, we continue to mistakenly believe that robots and computers cannot be trusted. That is why we are so reluctant to admit that robots are successful at performing intellectual tasks - in some cases even more efficiently than mechanical actions. The computerized autopilot system is able to fly the Boeing 787 for the duration of the flight, except for seven minutes of flight. The pilot is in the cockpit to fly the aircraft for those seven minutes and beyond "just in case," while the time he's really needed is rapidly shrinking.
The task of man will be to create new jobs for robots, and this is an endless process. So we are always guaranteed to have at least one job.
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Recently, the Henn-na Hotel (Henn-na Hotel) was opened in Japan, in which 90% of the work is done by robots and 10 people handle the remaining 10% of all cases. The robots produced by Kokoro are called actroids. They know how to greet and settle guests by making eye contact with them and reacting to movements. Some can communicate in foreign languages.
Hotel Henn-na, which literally translates from Japanese to English as "strange hotel", uses other robots besides actroids, such as the humanoid robots Nao (NAO) and Pepper (Pepper) from Aldebaran Robotics. Robots meet guests at the entrance and at the reception desk, help them take off their coats and carry bags, and clean the rooms.
Hotel Henn-na is not the only one of its kind. In New York, there is YOTEL, where robots take care of guests' belongings, make coffee, bring linen, clean rooms and do many other things.
And last year, hotel giant Starwood unveiled robots it called Botlrs. Serving guests, these robots can move around the hotel and in elevators without human assistance. Since 1992, robots have been helping in hospitals: delivering trays of food and medicine, washing bed linen, and throwing out the trash. At Lowe's hypermarket chain, the OSHbot robot helps customers find the right product.
Amazon uses over 15,000 robots in its warehouses to deliver orders on time. Even the US Army plans to replace tens of thousands of soldiers with robots. Last year, the University of Birmingham launched its first 1.8-meter-tall security robot, Bob, which scans rooms and signals if it sees anything unusual. If Bob gets stuck somewhere, he can call for help, and if he runs out of battery, he goes on his own to recharge.
Robots help increase the productivity of remote workers. At MIT's business school, employees who work from home can "roam" around the office and communicate with colleagues using robots.
How the widespread introduction of robots will affect us
Robots are increasingly appearing next to us at work, so will they completely take away jobs? Some believe that due to the widespread introduction of robots, people may be on the street. In 2013, Oxford conducted a study according to which 47% of current high-risk jobs will soon be automated. Within 20 years, people in these places will be replaced by robots.
However, there is another opinion: by giving machines hard work, people will be able to devote themselves to more interesting and high-tech pursuits. So does David Cann, head of Double Robotics, the company that created the robots used at MIT.
Robert Atkinson, an economist at the Technological Development and Innovation Foundation think tank, argues that the conclusion that robots will take jobs is based on a very superficial analysis of the situation. In fact, the opposite is happening: the adoption of robots is declining. Atkinson attributes this fall to two reasons:
- Thirty years ago, the United States invested much more actively in the development of robotics and software than now.
- Low-hanging fruits like airport check-in machines have already been plucked.
The third reason, according to Atkins, can be called the fact that in the United States there is no policy for the development of productivity.
They could do a lot to increase the level of productivity in the country, but they are not even planning anything. Unlike, for example, Australia, which has a National Productivity Commission whose job is to identify growth opportunities. We are just guessing what is going to happen...
And it is more profitable for companies to hire people with low salary rather than being automated. There is no incentive to replace employees with robots. Now, if people had to pay more, then companies would think about robotization.
Suppose if most low-wage workers demand higher wages, as fast food workers did in New York, then the process of automation will accelerate.
Here's what Harry Matiason, President of law firm Littler Mendelson, who specializes in questions labor law related to robotics.
There is progress. In New York City, fast food workers have already pushed the minimum wage to $15 an hour. Soon it will be economically profitable for employers to shift part of the work to robots. Accordingly, this will speed up the process of widespread automation. Thus, we can see robots everywhere in the next five years if we ourselves are economically active.
Harry Matiason
Robots can take our jobs, but that's not bad.
Like Atkinson, Matiason believes there is no cause for concern. He explains that automating 47% of high-risk jobs has nothing to do with unemployment.
People will be moved to positions that do not exist now, but they will appear in the future. If we turn to history, we will see that this situation has already happened. Then everything happened not as fast as it is now, but nevertheless there were precedents. By the way, in 1870 agriculture earned 70-80% of the population, and now only 1%.
And, by the way, turning again to history, you can see that with the advent of new technologies in production, unemployment has always remained at the same level or even decreased. I really want to see what happens over the next 10 years: for people in the first place will not be the threat of unemployment, but the opportunity to learn something new. And if a person has been doing one low-skilled job for 10 years, then perhaps the need career development he will only be happy.
Harry Matiason
Matiason promises that exciting times await us. Will have to make adjustments to Labor Code, answering questions related to the interaction of humans and robots. For example, how to regulate the dissemination of personal information, because robots will record what they hear.
Although it is not known how quickly robotization will penetrate all areas, there is no doubt that it will happen. And while some continue to be afraid of losing their jobs, others dream of how this will improve the economy as a whole and the well-being of every person. Companies will be more productive, earn more and be able to pay their workers more.
However, one of the disputes has not yet been resolved: what is it like when you are met by an actroid at the hotel reception, which mimics human gestures terribly ...
