Study of the dynamics of the main economic indicators of "Divo" LLC; conducting a SWOT analysis of the process of developing a management decision of the company, on the basis of which the main problems and weaknesses of the company were identified that require improvement.

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Decision-making system in the process of managing an organization her

(on the example of the Society with limited liability"Wonder")

swot managerial solution

1.3 Decision-making methods

Chapter 2

2.1 Organizational and economic characteristics of the enterprise

2.2 Study of the decision-making system in Divo LLC

2.3 Analysis of decision-making methods in Divo LLC

Chapter 3

3.1 Methods for improving the decision-making system

3.2 Accounting for socio-psychological aspects when making and implementing decisions

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

Creation of a large number of enterprises various forms property during the formation of a market economy in our country led to the fact that managers had to learn to manage on their own, and not at the behest of "above". One of the elements of independent management of the enterprise is the adoption management decisions.

Decision making is an integral part of any managerial function. The need to make a decision permeates everything that a manager does, setting goals and achieving them. Therefore, understanding the nature of decision making is extremely important for anyone who wants to excel in the art of management. As an active and thinking element of the system, a person predetermines the expediency and organization of the labor process. By defining a goal and a program of action, a person, in fact, makes a decision.

In a larger industrial formation, where several elementary cells are already involved, the joint work of several people is also predetermined by a common goal and program of action. The function of determining the goal and the program of action is performed here by an individual leader. It is he who decides what is required to be obtained at the output of this small system (goal) in qualitative, quantitative or cost terms. He also determines how to achieve this (action program): what resources to introduce, how to distribute labor among the performers, how to organize the movement of objects of labor, etc. Then he organizes the execution of the decision, exercises control, i.e. collects information about what happens at the output of the system, at each of the workplaces, whether the actions of the performers correspond to the decision made. In case of deviations, he decides on the regulation (influence on the input of the system or on the performers). This is how the management process proceeds, which consists of interrelated phases:

1) decision-making as the definition of a goal and a program of action;

2) organization of execution;

3) collection and processing of information (including control and accounting) for subsequent decision-making.

Thus, the process of making a managerial decision is an important phase in the management cycle. By the quality and efficiency of the decisions made and, which is very important, the decisions being implemented, one can judge the quality and efficiency of managerial work.

The process of making managerial decisions is relevant due to the fact that the scale, number of elements and relationships of subsystems in organizational systems are expanding more and more. The complication of connections between the elements of the system causes uncertainty in the knowledge of the real structure of the system, which may be associated with the so-called human factor, intentional or special distortion of information, etc.

Sometimes the definition of a management decision is limited only by the choice of a possible course of action. Such an approach impoverishes the content of this category of management theory and does not correspond to its essence.

Management decisions can be made in relation to any area of the organization: personnel management, financial management, production process management, including marketing service management.

Object of study commercial enterprise Limited Liability Company "Divo". The main activity of the enterprise under study is the production and sale of vegetable oil, which distinguishes it as the only one in its industry on the territory of Chelyabinsk.

The subject of research in this work is the system of making managerial decisions in the process of managing an organization, as a method for achieving the goals set and organizing the rational activity of the work process.

The purpose of the final qualification work is to develop ways to improve the management decision-making system on the example of activities commercial organization Limited Liability Company Divo LLC. To achieve this goal, the following tasks were solved in the work:

The study theoretical foundations decision-making in management and methodology for their implementation.

Study of the decision-making system in the Divo Limited Liability Company and analysis of the methods used.

Development of ways to improve decision-making in the organization's management system.

In the process of developing the improvement of the decision-making system, it was proposed: the creation of an improved decision-making scheme and the definition of organizational and socio-psychological methods for its implementation.

In the theoretical part, the essence and significance of the decision-making process, the classification of types of managerial decisions, the stages of the study of the organization as a decision-making system, the methodology and modeling of decision-making are considered. The analytical part provides a general description of the object of study (the dynamics of the main economic indicators, the decision-making system in the organization are considered, a SWOT analysis of the process of developing a managerial decision is carried out, an analysis of decision-making methods in Divo LLC is carried out). The project part consists of two paragraphs. The first presents ways to improve the management decision-making system in two main areas: the definition of organizational and administrative methods that determine the work of the organization as a whole and the creation of a unified decision-making scheme, the second considers the socio-psychological aspects that affect the decision-making of the organization.

When writing the work, scientific and educational publications on management, organization management and decision-making, materials from periodic buildings were used.

The initial basis for the analysis of the decision-making system in Divo LLC: the Charter, data from a sociological survey of buyers, data on sales volumes, orders, regulatory documentation.

Chapter 1. Theoretical foundations of decision-making in the process of managing an organization

1.1 Essence and types of management decisions

It should be remembered that almost all everyday decisions we make without systematic thinking, other decisions, such as where to go to live after graduation, or what lifestyle would satisfy us, after deliberation lasting days, months, years. Sometimes due to unconscious psychological factors we focus disproportionately on individual solutions. For example, some people agonize for weeks about buying a pair of shoes and act on impulse to buy a $15,000 car.

However, in management, decision-making is a more systematized process than in private life. The rate is often much higher. The private choice of the individual affects mainly the life of his own and the few people associated with him. The manager chooses the course of action not only for himself, but also for the organization and for other employees. People on the top floors of a large organization sometimes make decisions involving millions of dollars. More importantly, management decisions can affect the fate of many people, at least everyone who works with the decision-maker, and perhaps everyone in the organization. One manager can fine an employee for the slightest offense, fine those who are engaged in social activities at work. Another manager may decide that being too strict on these issues threatens to cause moral problems, resulting in increased absenteeism, employee turnover, and possibly worse customer service, reduced productivity and product quality. Refusing administrative punishments, the manager decides that there will be more use from a direct but firm conversation with the employee. However, over time, repeated instances of being late for work and reduced activity due to violent social activities can force the manager to still decide to dismiss the employee. If an organization is large and influential, the decisions of its top leaders can change the local environment in a decisive way. Some management decisions literally change the course of history. Major government decisions, such as President Truman's use of the atomic bomb, fall into this category.

Responsibility for making important organizational decisions is a heavy moral burden, which is especially evident at the highest levels of management. However, leaders of any rank deal with property belonging to other people and through it influence their lives. If a manager decides to fire a subordinate, the latter can suffer greatly. If a bad worker left unchecked, the organization may suffer, which will adversely affect its owners and all employees. Therefore, the leader, as a rule, cannot make ill-considered decisions. Before understanding how a leader can act more rationally and systematized, it is necessary to become more familiar with the universality of decision making, its organic connection with the management process and some characteristics of organizational decisions.

One of the performance indicators of a manager is his ability to make the right decisions. Since managers perform four management functions, they actually deal with a constant stream of decisions for each of them, i.e. planning, organization, motivation and control. Development and decision-making is a creative process in the activities of the leader. It usually includes a number of stages:

development and goal setting;

study of the problem on the basis of the information received;

selection and justification of the criteria for efficiency (effectiveness) and the possible consequences of the decisions made;

consideration of options for solutions;

selection and formulation of the final decision;

· decision-making;

specification of the decision for its executors;

control over the implementation of decisions.

A managerial decision is understood as the choice of an alternative; action to resolve a problem.

Decision making is a conscious choice among available options or alternatives to take a course of action that bridges the gap between the present and future desired state of the organization. The basis for making effective management decisions is high-quality information. Features of management decisions: validity; timeliness; the complexity of the approach; legality; a clear statement of tasks; feasibility of execution; continuity and consistency with previous decisions.

The manager during his activity is forced to constantly make decisions, he accumulates certain experience in this area. In many ways, the technology of management depends on the personal qualities of the leader, his national characteristics, the characteristics of management adopted in a particular country. Management decision is a creative act of the subject of management, aimed at eliminating the problems that have arisen in the management object.

Types of management decisions.

They can be classified in many ways. However, the determining factor is the conditions under which the decision is made.

Under certainty, the manager is relatively certain of the outcome of each of the alternatives.

In an environment of risk or uncertainty, the most a manager can do is determine the probability of success for each alternative. The decision is made under conditions of uncertainty, when it is impossible to estimate the likelihood of potential outcomes. This should be the case when the factors to be considered are so new and complex that it is not possible to get enough information about them. As a result, the likelihood of a particular outcome cannot be predicted with sufficient certainty. Uncertainty is characteristic of some decisions that have to be made in rapidly changing circumstances.

When faced with uncertainty, managers use two options. First, they try to get additional information and re-analyze the problem. Second, they act on past experience, judgment, or intuition and make an assumption about the likelihood of events. Decisions made under risk are those whose outcomes are not certain, but the probability of each outcome is known. Probability is defined as the degree of possibility of a given event and varies from 0 to 1. The sum of the probabilities of all alternatives must be equal to one. Under certainty, there is only one alternative.

In this case, the organization's own culture, values and traditions are of great importance. Employees are exposed to the culture and therefore do not consider solutions outside of it.

The classification of managerial decisions is necessary to determine general and specific approaches to their development, implementation and evaluation, which makes it possible to improve their quality, efficiency and continuity. Management decisions can be classified in a variety of ways. The most common types of classification are:

functional content,

by the nature of the tasks to be solved (sphere of influence),

in the hierarchy of control

by the nature of the development organization,

By the nature of the goals

· on causes,

according to the original development methods,

Organizational design.

Management decisions can be classified according to their functional content, i.e. towards general functions controls, for example:

planning decisions,

organizational,

· supervising,

predictive.

Typically, such decisions affect, to one degree or another, all management functions, however, in each of them, it is possible to single out the main core associated with some main function.

Another classification principle is related to the nature of the tasks being solved:

economic,

organizational,

technical,

technological,

ecological and others.

Most often, management decisions are associated not with one, but with a number of tasks, to some extent having a complex character.

Depending on the organization of the development of solutions, the following management decisions are distinguished:

individual,

collegiate,

collective.

The preferred method of organizing the development of a managerial decision depends on many reasons:

The competencies of the leader

The skill level of the team

The nature of the tasks

resources, etc.

By the nature of the goals, the decisions made can be represented as:

current (operational),

tactical,

strategic.

Based on the causes of occurrence, management decisions are divided into:

situational, related to the nature of the circumstances that arise,

By order (order) of higher authorities,

program related to the inclusion of this control object in a certain structure of program-target relations, activities,

proactive, associated with the manifestation of the initiative of the system, for example, in the production of goods, services, mediation,

· episodic and periodic, arising from the periodicity of reproduction processes in the system (for example, the seasonality of agricultural production, river rafting, geological work).

An important classification approach is the initial methods for developing a management decision. These include:

graphic, using graphic-analytical approaches ( network models and methods, strip charts, block diagrams),

Mathematical methods involving the formalization of representations, relationships, proportions, timing, events, resources,

· Heuristic, associated with the widespread use of expert assessments, scenario development, situational models.

According to the organizational design, management decisions are divided into:

Rigid, unambiguously setting the further path of their implementation,

guiding direction system development,

flexible, changing in accordance with the conditions of functioning and development of the system,

normative, setting the parameters of the processes in the system.

Since decisions are made by people, their character largely bears the imprint of the personality of the manager involved in their birth. In this regard, it is customary to distinguish between balanced, impulsive, inert, risky and cautious decisions.

Balanced decisions are made by managers who are attentive and critical of their actions, put forward hypotheses and their testing. Usually, before starting to make a decision, they have a formulated initial idea.

Impulsive decisions, the authors of which easily generate a wide variety of ideas in unlimited quantities, but are not able to properly verify, clarify, and evaluate them. Decisions therefore turn out to be insufficiently substantiated and reliable;

Inert solutions are the result of a careful search. In them, on the contrary, control and clarifying actions prevail over the generation of ideas, so it is difficult to detect originality, brilliance, and innovation in such decisions.

Risky decisions differ from impulsive ones in that their authors do not need to carefully substantiate their hypotheses and, if they are confident in themselves, may not be afraid of any dangers.

Cautious decisions. They are characterized by thorough evaluation by the manager of all options, a supercritical approach to business. They are even less than inert ones, they are distinguished by novelty and originality.

These types of decisions are made mainly in the process operational management. For the strategic and tactical management of any subsystem of the management system, rational decisions are made based on the methods of economic analysis, justification and optimization.

There are other criteria for classifying management decisions:

By the duration of the consequences of the decision: long-, medium- and short-term;

By the frequency of acceptance: one-time (random) and recurring;

By breadth of coverage: general (concerning all employees) and highly specialized;

By the form of preparation: individual, group and collective decisions;

By complexity: simple and complex;

Of particular interest is the classification of managerial decisions given by M. Mescon, M. Albert and F. Khedoury, which single out organizational, intuitive and rational decisions.

An organizational decision is a choice that a leader must make in order to fulfill the responsibilities of the position. The purpose of an organizational decision is to ensure movement towards the tasks set for the organization.

Organizational decisions can be divided into two groups:

In a programmed decision, the number of possible alternatives is limited and the choice must be made within the directions given by the organization.

Non-programmed decisions are decisions that require new situations to a certain extent, they are not internally constructed or are associated with unknown factors. The unprogrammed ones include decisions on the following questions: “what should be the goals of the organization?”, “how to improve products?”, “how to improve the structure?” etc.

In practice, few management decisions are programmed or unprogrammed in their pure form. In fact, the process of making organizational decisions is very closely related to the process of managing the organization as a whole.

1.2 Stages of the study of the organization as a decision-making system

The development of a scientific approach to decision-making predetermines the need to develop a specific plan in the form of interconnected processes of preparation, justification, acceptance, input, etc. solutions into action.

Providing comprehensive information.

The preparation of a specific decision requires that it be fully informed and justified. The work involves familiarization and understanding by the managers of the nature and consequences of the previously applied decision, which is the previous decision. Familiarization with current instructions, receiving additional information from persons and departments competent in the field of this problem. Along with this, it must be taken into account that the decision taken should not contradict existing acts and the above directive. In carrying out this work, it is necessary to explore the multilateral dependencies and relationships caused by the formed decision, to study the nature of the consequences of the decisions being made. At the same time, the manager should be given the freedom to receive information on the problem being solved from the information department, as well as he should be given the opportunity to receive information in all departments when collecting any new data that, in his opinion, is necessary to identify the cause of the existence of the problem being solved. The leader should be aware of the latest achievements in his field, he should constantly work to improve his competence in the specialty, look for an opportunity to attend conferences, seminars, listen to special lectures and other classes. At the same time, it is important to proceed from the fact that now, more than ever, managers must have a sense of the new, the ability to think economically competently, and keep up with scientific and technological progress.

Working with information accompanies and permeates the entire decision-making and control process. A necessary prerequisite for making the right decision is the optimal amount and quality of the processed information. Of particular importance is also the method of information analysis and synthesis, which forms ideas about possible solutions. Each solution option is nothing more than a set of information about the possibilities of answering a question, assembled into a single logical whole and having a certain purposefulness.

General assessment and classification of materials. When starting to collect the information necessary for making a decision, the manager usually encounters two difficulties - its excess or lack. With an excess of information, the difficulty lies in the ability and ability of the manager to find the information that is directly related to this issue. With a lack of information, there is a constant threat of making an incorrect, insufficiently substantiated decision. In this regard, the manager must develop a clear approach to the overall assessment of the material, determine the required number of factors and their content, the timing of their collection and processing, the effectiveness of the expected results in relation to the time spent on collecting information; establish methods and techniques for classifying material, etc. In general, it is necessary to obtain all the factual materials, give them a general assessment, classify, analyze and process. A detailed analysis is designed to identify shortcomings, establish their causes and create prerequisites for decision-making, establishing the boundaries of their applicability. At the same time, it must be remembered that the most important condition for making the right decisions is the analysis of situations. Intuitive solutions are admissible only in the case of solving current tasks. The possibility of forming a decision in the process of collecting and processing facts is not ruled out. At the same time, it is necessary to think carefully about the statements of people regarding various aspects of the problem, remember that it is easy to believe in what you want to subjectively believe.

The study of the problem and its clarification suggest the need for full concentration of one's attention on it in order to identify its competencies and clearly formulate its target directions. It is necessary to find out what this problem is, to determine the causes of its occurrence, the need to change the “existing situation”, its goals and possible consequences, to establish positive and negative consequences, the degree of risk in making a decision, its urgency and importance. Performing this work, it is necessary to compile a list of facts to clarify the problem, check their accuracy; study them in the light of past experience; consult on their reliability, identify the main obstacles in solving the problem and the limits of authority in solving it. Such a sequence of studying and understanding the problem is aimed at finding out if there are any hidden facts that change the very essence of the problem.

Ensuring specificity and efficiency. Urgent issues must be resolved in a timely manner, quickly, without unnecessary paperwork, realistically, taking into account all the most important factors, firmly, in live communication with the team on the basis of a detailed acquaintance with the situation and specific conditions. Along with this, efficiency should not lead to improvisation, turmoil, arbitrary and frequent change of decisions.

If a decision is formed and developed by a group of specialists, say a council, it is necessary to organize the work in such a way that each of the specialists retains the individual positive features of his activity, directing them to solve this problem. Moreover, the size of the group should be optimal, since large groups are ineffective. There are no opportunities for a lively discussion in them; it is difficult to create a spirit of discussion, success in work, and creative discussion. The leader is called upon to create in the work the spirit of creative search, exchange of opinions, healthy criticism, search for solutions taking into account the real situation, and not guided by the rule of mutual concessions, pressure by authority, etc. In addition, it should be borne in mind that if an employee puts forward a rather original and new idea, she is on initial stage, as a rule, is subjected to intense influence by the majority of those discussing who have turned into opponents, in the form of revealing various negative aspects, criticism, excessive and not always justified and convincing, objective. The leader's role consists in the guiding and restraining function of preventing unfounded criticism, in requiring specificity and promptness on the merits of proposals. .

Definition of alternative solutions. In determining the choice of alternative solutions to a problem, the manager, seeking to increase the likelihood of obtaining a higher return, may wish for as many alternative solutions as possible. The best result in decision-making is achieved with a greater number of skillfully designed bold creative options. However, the choice of one of them becomes the more difficult, the more there are. In practice, only one possible action is carried out, therefore it is recommended to first determine the economic feasibility, labor intensity and profitability of finding all possible alternative solutions. The choice of a certain alternative includes evaluating the effectiveness of decisions, determining the expected return of the output minus the input using formal-logical and heuristic methods based on the creative abilities and experience of the manager. It is necessary to establish criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of the solution, and based on the criterion of effectiveness, take into account extremes.

If it is impossible to give and carry out such an assessment with sufficient accuracy, then it is advisable to determine the expected risk value for each of the decisions. In the absence of information, the basis of the choice can only be a known intended direction of action, while the determining factor in the choice can only be the subjective opinion of the leader, who makes the decision based on his ability. Psychologists note that it is not enough to have the full possibility, even the richest probability, it is also necessary to be able to make an appropriate choice from these probabilities at the appropriate moment. And that takes a lot of art. What is the essence of choice? What does the expression "someone chose this and that" mean? This means that someone:

1) suggested (and in a separate case calculated whether it was right or wrong) that one could do this and one could do something else;

2) compared the first and second;

3) deliberately made it so that one of the two was, and deliberately did not make it so that the other was not (in one case he did it successfully, in the other he went after what he considered the best, but both of these cases can occur and usually occur together ). It is clear that there can be many compared probabilities.

Determining the relative values of individual options, the disadvantages and advantages of various alternatives, it is necessary to determine to what extent the author mastered the problem, what creative abilities he possesses and whether he is objective enough, whether he knows how to use the objective opportunities that this situation presents to him.

The leader must evaluate these actions, while doing this work, avoid irrational ideas, think over whether all the facts are taken into account by him, consider the consequences if actions are not taken.

Using the master link method. Of the many issues to be resolved, it is necessary to select and solve the most important ones, on which the successful solution of the problem depends.

The ability to choose the main, leading links, which predetermines the general course of the development of a phenomenon, characterizes the scientific validity of a particular decision. The head, developing and making decisions, must evaluate various options, choosing the best, the main ones, the key ones.

Ensuring autonomy in decision making. The need to ensure independence in decision-making is due to the fact that decision-making within the existing powers is not only a right, but also an obligation of every leader. Each employee must make a decision independently, but within the limits of his competence, within the framework of the tasks, orders and orders of a higher manager. No one should shift decision-making to higher or lower employees in order to avoid responsibility.

Development of a preliminary decision. It is necessary to cover a large number of different factors and related documents, which will allow you to delve into the very essence of the problem. The solution being formed at this stage is only a proposal, because it is still possible to make changes or modifications to it, to weigh and evaluate various options and proposals, to identify the reactions of various people, i.e. discuss it with your employees and other professionals with whom you have contact, and this work involves. When developing a preliminary decision, the manager can use the accumulated experience, intuition, creative imagination, can also proceed from traditional methods, but it is better to use modern methods for this. computer technology, having worked quite easily several dozen options, which will increase the likelihood and reliability in choosing the best, optimal. But the important thing in this is the correct choice of criteria, the introduction of key positions, and not replacing it with verbose reasoning. A computer allows you to quickly, clearly and reliably check various assumptions, make correct conclusions based on processed information. .

Discussing problems in an informal setting. In the process of developing, shaping and creating the prerequisites for putting a solution into action, it is important for a leader to attract a real interest in him, a conscious attitude of his colleagues, employees, public organizations. The need for this is due to the fact that the new solution, most likely, will affect existing methods, techniques and work, will require employees to switch to more appropriate, progressive techniques and to some extent change the nature of their behavior, acquire new skills, change the balance of mental , physical or psychological effort. A preliminary discussion of the problem in an informal setting is necessary in order to smooth out the possibilities of emerging contradictions and discrepancies, since performers, getting used to the traditional style or methods of work, are usually reluctant to change the usual methods that seem to them the most convenient and economical, stable and stable psychologically.

When discussing the problem in an informal setting, it is necessary to convince subordinates of the desire for progressive changes, for improvement and certain benefits from its implementation. In addition, during the discussion, ordinary employees notice and reveal such points related to the decision that the manager may not even guess about. That is, a preliminary discussion of the issue creates certain guarantees for its successful implementation, since it imposes on those discussing a certain responsibility for the formulation, clarification and decision. The reality of the implementation of the decision in practice is due, first of all, to its feasibility on the part of the performers.

When discussing, it is necessary to create certain conditions, namely:

Do not interfere with opportunities, subject the decision to criticism and doubt;

create conditions for frankness, the possibility of making changes and additions to the decision;

Prevent a system of mutual compromises caused by the dependence of participants on each other.

Decision approval. It is necessary to achieve agreement with the proposed decision both by the heads of those departments whose activities may be affected by the decision, and with those executors who will implement it. If the manager disagrees with a particular decision or if he believes that this decision will adversely affect his activities, it is necessary to prepare a convincing justification for his objection with quantitative and qualitative calculations.

Performing this work, it is recommended to bring to each performer their intended duties, indicate their validity, expediency, the benefits and advantages that follow in connection with their commissioning. After verbal agreement, for greater confidence in its effective implementation, it is necessary to obtain approval from the employee as a member of the primary labor collective. As practice shows, the time spent here is insignificant. Coordination of proposed decisions must be carried out both vertically and horizontally in the management hierarchy, depending on the issue being resolved. Sometimes a manager makes a mistake in his actions, drawing a line of sub-optimization that occurs when ignoring the opinions of managers and specialists from other departments, colleagues at work, whose work results and activities are influenced (moreover, negatively), decisions made without coordination with them or carried out by any or other actions by this leader.

Decision approval. The procedure for approving a decision is sometimes a pure formality for collecting the appropriate signatures and sanctions, since at the previous stages of the decision-making mechanism, in essence, the best option and method for its implementation was sought. However, the need to perform this work is also due to the requirements of legality, indicating that the solution has reached a point where all members of the team involved in solving the problem have assumed some responsibility.

With a certain version of the decision, the manager sometimes needs to consult with trade union organizations or with a team of workers. However, in the end, the decision is approved by the leader himself, since he is personally responsible for the effectiveness of the activities of the team entrusted to him, performing the functions assigned to him in accordance with the principle of unity of command.

The final solution to the problem. Making a decision is essentially choosing from among several possible solutions to a given problem. Options for decisions can be real, optimistic and pessimistic. A sign of the scientific organization of management, the scientific style and methods of work of the head is the choice of the best solution from several possible ones. The final solution of the problem comes after "playing" various options, grouping them according to their significance, rejecting those that are obviously unsuitable and unrealistic. One should also beware of the desire to speed up the decision-making process, which sometimes entails inaccuracies and distortions in the decisions made. When choosing the final version of the solution, it is necessary to take into account a huge variety of different influences and miscalculation possibilities, explained both by the subjective data of the employee himself, and by some - by the objective data of the calculation accuracy mechanism itself. The leader must take into account that in practical, real reality, it is rarely possible to implement only one option, which has a clear and significant advantage over others. When making a final decision, it is also necessary to foresee the possibility of only partial success or failure of the decision being made, and therefore it is recommended to pre-plan auxiliary (reserve) activities that, if the decision fails, can be carried out instead of unmarked ones.

When solving important problems, it is advisable to critically consider any generalization in the decision-making methodology, take into account that sometimes it is necessary to allow exceptions to the general rules, but at the same time, one must always adhere to the main principles in the final solution of the problem, once again comprehend the decision being made and determine:

What can be affected by the decision, what are the goals and why it is generally necessary to change the existing real situation;

What is the degree of freedom of action, i.e. how we are connected from the very beginning (decrees, conditions for making decisions, internal and external relationships in management);

the urgency and importance of the decision, conditions own work and cooperation with other workers;

risk in making a decision (possibility of gain and loss, undesirable outcome).

The final decision is made by the head, regardless of the procedure for discussion and approval.

1.3 Decision-making methods

All decision-making methods can be grouped into three groups.

Informal (heuristic) decision-making methods.

Management practice shows that when making and implementing decisions, a certain part of managers use informal methods that are based on the analytical features of those who make managerial decisions. This is a set of logical techniques and methods for choosing the best decisions by the manager through a theoretical comparison of alternatives, taking into account the accumulated experience. For the most part, informal methods are based on the manager's intuition. Their advantage is that they are accepted promptly, the disadvantage is that informal methods do not guarantee against choosing erroneous (inefficient) decisions, since intuition can sometimes fail a manager.

Collective methods of discussion and decision making.

The main point in the process of collective work on the implementation of management decisions is the determination of the circle of persons participating in this procedure. Most often, this is a temporary team, which includes, as a rule, both leaders and performers. The main criteria for the formation of such a group are competence, the ability to solve creative problems, constructive thinking and communication skills. collective forms group work can be different: meeting, meeting, work in the commission, etc. The most common method of preparing managerial decisions is “brainstorming” or “brainstorming” (joint generation of new ideas and subsequent decision-making).

If a complex problem is to be solved, then a group of people gathers to offer their own solutions to a particular problem. The main condition for "brainstorming" is the creation of an environment conducive to the free generation of ideas. To achieve this, it is forbidden to refute or criticize the idea, no matter how fantastic it may be at first glance. All ideas are written down and then analyzed by the leaders (Appendix 1)

The Delphi method got its name from the Greek city of Delphi, famous for the sages who lived there and predicted the future. The Delphi method is a multi-round questionnaire procedure. After each round, the survey data is finalized, and the results are reported to the experts, indicating the location of the assessments. The first round of the survey is conducted without argumentation, in the second - a different answer is subject to argumentation, or the expert can change the assessment. After the assessments stabilize, the survey is terminated and a decision proposed by experts or a collective decision is made.

The Japanese, so-called, ring decision-making system “kingisho”, the essence of which is that an innovation project is being prepared for consideration. It is submitted for discussion to persons according to the list compiled by the leader. Everyone should consider the proposed solution and give their comments in writing. This is followed by a meeting. As a rule, those specialists are invited whose opinion is not entirely clear to the manager. Experts choose their solution according to individual preferences. And if they do not match, then a preference vector arises, which is determined using one of the following principles:

· Dictator principle - the opinion of one person of the group is taken as a basis. This principle is typical for military organizations, as well as for decision-making in emergency situations;

· Carnot's principle - is used when there are no coalitions, ie. when the number of solutions equal to the number of experts is proposed. In this case, it is necessary to find a solution that would meet the requirement of individual rationality without infringing on the interests of each individual;

· Pareto principle - is used when making decisions when all experts form a single whole, one coalition. In this case, the optimal solution will be one that is unprofitable to change all members of the group at once, since it unites them in achieving a common goal;

· The Edgeworth principle - is used if the group consists of several coalitions, each of which is not profitable to change its decision. Knowing the preferences of coalitions, it is possible to make the optimal decision without harming each other.

Quantitative Decision Methods

They are based on a scientific and practical approach, which involves the choice of optimal solutions based on specific figures and calculations.

Mathematical methods.

Depending on the type of mathematical functions underlying the models, there are:

linear modeling - linear dependencies are used;

· dynamic programming - allows you to enter additional variables in the process of solving problems;

· probabilistic and statistical models - are implemented in the methods of queuing theory;

Game theory - modeling of such situations, decision-making in which should take into account the discrepancy between the interests of various units;

Simulation models - allow you to experimentally verify the implementation of solutions, change the initial prerequisites, clarify the requirements for them.

· economic analysis- A typical "economic" model is based on a break-even analysis, a decision-making method that determines the point at which total revenue equalizes total costs, i.e. the point at which the business becomes profitable.

Payment matrix. The essence of each decision taken by management is the choice of the best of several alternatives according to specific criteria established in advance. The payoff matrix is one of the methods of statistical decision theory, a method that can help the manager in choosing one of several options. It is especially useful when a manager must determine which strategy will most contribute to the achievement of goals. A payoff is a monetary reward or utility that results from a specific strategy combined with specific circumstances. If payments are presented in the form of a table (or matrix), we get a payoff matrix. The words "in combination with specific circumstances" are very important to understand when to use the payoff matrix and assess when a decision based on it is likely to be reliable. In its most general form, the matrix means that the payment depends on certain events that actually occur. If such an event or state of nature does not actually occur, the payment will inevitably be different. In general, a payoff matrix is useful when:

1. There is a reasonably limited number of alternatives or strategies to choose from.

2. what might happen is not known with certainty.

3. The results of the decision made depend on which alternative is chosen and what events actually take place.

In addition, the manager must have the ability to objectively assess the likelihood of relevant events and calculate the expected value of such a probability. A leader rarely has complete certainty, but also rarely does he act in conditions of complete uncertainty. In almost all cases of decision-making, the manager has to evaluate the likelihood or possibility of an event. Probability can be determined objectively, as a roulette player behaves when betting on odd numbers. The choice of its value can be based on past trends or the subjective assessment of the manager, who proceeds from his own experience of acting in similar situations.

A decision tree is a schematic representation of a decision problem. Like the pay matrix, the decision tree gives the manager the opportunity to take into account various areas of action, correlate with them financial results, adjust them according to the probability assigned to them, and then compare the alternatives. The concept of expected value is an integral part of the decision tree method.

A decision tree can be built for complex situations where the results of one decision affect subsequent decisions. Thus, a decision tree is a useful tool for making consistent decisions.

Many of the assumptions a manager makes are about conditions in the future over which the manager has little or no control. However, these kinds of assumptions are necessary for many planning operations. It is clear that the better the manager can predict external and internal conditions in relation to the future, the greater the chances of drawing up feasible plans.

Forecasting is a technique that uses both past experience and current assumptions about the future to determine it.

Types of forecasts:

1. Economic forecasts are used to predict the general state of the economy and sales for a particular company or product.

2. technology development forecasts will allow predicting what new technologies can be expected to develop, when it can happen, how economically viable they can be.

3. Forecasts of the development of competition allow you to predict the strategy and tactics of competitors.

4. Forecasts based on surveys and research make it possible to predict what will happen in complex situations using data from many fields of knowledge. For example, the future car market can only be assessed in light of the impending change in the state of the economy, social values, political environment, technology and standards for environmental protection from pollution.

5. social forecasting, which is currently being pursued by only a few large organizations, used to predict changes in people's social attitudes and the state of society

Forecasting methods:

· informal methods;

· quantitative;

quality.

Informal methods include:

verbal information (information obtained from radio and television broadcasts, from consumers, suppliers, competitors, at sales meetings, in professional organizations, from lawyers, accountants, financial auditors and consultants). Such information affects all major environmental factors of interest to organizations. She has a frankly changeable nature, she is easy to get, and often quite reliant on her. Sometimes, however, the data may be inaccurate, outdated, or vague. If this happens, and management uses poor quality information to formulate the organization's goals, the number of problems in achieving the goals can be significant;

Written information (newspapers, trade magazines, newsletters, professional journals and annual reports). Although this information is readily available, it suffers from the same shortcomings as verbal information, namely that the written information may not be fresh or particularly profound;

industrial espionage (sometimes it is a successful way to collect data on the actions of competitors, and this data is then used to reformulate the goals of the organization, so managers must protect data that has the status of their intellectual property).

Quantitative methods can be used for forecasting when there is reason to believe that activity in the past had a certain trend that can be continued in the future, and when the available information is sufficient to identify statistically significant trends or relationships. In addition, the manager must know how to use a quantitative model, and remember that the benefits of making a more effective decision must outweigh the costs of creating a model. Two typical quantitative forecasting methods are time series analysis and causal (causal) modeling.

Time series analysis, sometimes referred to as trend projection. Time series analysis is based on the assumption that what happened in the past gives a fairly good approximation of the future. This analysis is a method of identifying patterns and trends of the past and extending them into the future. This method of analysis is often used to estimate the demand for goods and services, estimate the need for inventory, forecast the sales structure, which is characterized by seasonal fluctuations, or the need for personnel.

What is decision making and why is it important

We have to choose the strategy of our behavior in most life situations, and we always choose, even when it seems to us that we are not doing it. But the decision-making skill is, of the many options, the one that will affect the situation in the best way. Simply put, there is a certain objective function that helps to evaluate the "usefulness" of a particular situation. It can concern not only the person making the choice, but also his relatives, friends, colleagues, or in general the whole of humanity. And the ability to make decisions is the skill of choosing a scenario with the maximum value of the objective function. It is important to note that the choice is not always correct objectively - it is simply the best in the opinion of a particular person.

There are situations in which it is difficult to make a choice and make a decision. For example, the above objective function can produce the same values, different options can be equivalent, both scenarios can be equally valuable to a person. And if he cannot make a decision, he can be characterized as.

Another variant of difficulties with decision-making is expressed in the fact that the objective function is not set. In other words, a person simply does not know what he wants. This case is much more complicated and requires a more serious determination of the causes of the difficulties.

Based on the foregoing, the ability to make decisions is a whole set of skills:

The skill of seeing the maximum number of possible solutions
(objective function definitions) for each specific situation
The skill of choosing one solution among all their many

It would not be superfluous to note that all these functions for a person initially (while he is in childhood) are performed by adults. But the older he gets, the more choices he has to make himself. And it is generally accepted that upon reaching adulthood, a person is already able to make any decisions that determine his future life.

A person develops further, and is already learning to make decisions that concern not only him, but also other people. Those. he learns to make decisions for others, for example, at home or manage employees at work. This skill is also very important, but it is also more difficult, because. the number of choices expands, and the objective function includes personal interests and the interests of others.

If a person does not know how to make decisions, he will be torn between options, which leads to inconsistent actions and even letting the situation take its course. And here it is important to note that he does not decide to do nothing, choosing this strategy as optimal, but simply does not make any decision at all, remaining a passive observer.

But such passivity is acceptable only in rare cases - when the situation is positive and does not require intervention. When things get worse, whether it's a specific person or a group of people, changing it always requires action. Actions are a reasonable act, and behind each of them there is a decision taken to perform it. A person who is not able to make a decision is also unable to take actions to resolve negative situations.

All this suggests that the ability to make a decision is, first of all, the ability to act, resolve situations, solve problems and improve one's own life. And how much a person owns this skill can depend on how his own life and professional results and other people's results. And here is the time to talk about professional solutions.

The Importance and Significance of Management Decisions

The conditions of the modern market are very tough, and the competition is very high. In such an environment where all companies and organizations have similar technologies, high-performance, correct and rational decisions at all levels of management play a huge role in success, competitive confrontation and achievement of set goals.

Management decisions are defined as methods of purposeful influence on management objects, based on the analysis of reliable information characterizing a specific management situation, as well as setting the goal of influence and ways to achieve this goal.

Decision-making from this position is one of the main, and sometimes even the most responsible functions performed by managers or departments of organizations and enterprises. The need to constantly make managerial decisions pervades literally all areas of activity of leaders and managers. For this reason, everyone who is somehow involved in management must understand the essence of the decision-making process. The effectiveness of the organization as a whole depends on how adequate and timely management decisions will be.

Speaking specifically about Russia, in our country for a very long time there were no attempts to professionally train management personnel to make decisions. This was greatly influenced by the presence of an administrative-command apparatus, in which all serious decisions were made at the highest level of various departments and ministries. The lower levels were engaged only in execution.

But with the transition to a market economy, the responsibility for making managerial decisions has seriously increased at all levels. Each decision made began to influence the position of organizations, and there are no higher authorities controlling this.

Today, when the economy is developing very intensively, leaders are increasingly faced with the need to look for new ways to solve problems, which is associated with great risks. Management decisions associated with a large number of processes are now characterized by the complexity of their development and a high degree responsibility.

This determines the special importance among managers of different levels of the skill of developing, adopting and implementing highly effective management decisions, taking into account all prospects and risks. Actually, this once again indicates the relevance of the course offered to your attention.

Fundamentals of Decision Making

In this small section of the introduction, despite its theoretical and fact-finding focus, we still want to offer some useful recommendations, based on which you can now rethink something and increase the effectiveness of your decisions. The information provided will teach you how to do more right choices in education, work, business, family and friendships, and in any other area of life.

Get rid of frames

When thinking gives you only two options: "Yes" or "No", you are trapped in the framework. Choosing between them, you get stuck in the boundaries of just one alternative and ignore the rest. Instead, you need to look for a solution in another plane, despite the desire and instinctive desire to keep everything simple and avoid diversity.

In addition, people often try to find an option between two extremes, despite the possibility of finding a compromise or the simultaneous implementation of both options without having to make a choice. Situations in which several options are available at the same time, although not often, but occur.

Never be in a hurry to make a decision. It is much more correct to try to see the maximum number of options. This will allow you to better orient yourself and protect yourself from the influence of emotions, which is not always useful.

There is no need to be overly attached to the goal that thinking initially sets for itself. From this, the ability to make decisions becomes inert, and we see only what confirms the decision, and what contradicts it remains unnoticed.

The obvious choice is not always the best one, and there may be better decisions behind it. It is dangerous to stick to one solution, and to expand the choice, a comparative analysis of other paths should be carried out.

Gather Information

Before making any decision, you need to collect as much information as possible on the current problem. It can be obtained from other people, from the Internet or books, from some other third-party sources.

A large amount of information will expand your vision of the problem, highlight the initially invisible details and subtleties of the issue, and make your understanding of the situation more objective. With a sufficient amount of information, it will be possible to evaluate all the pros and cons of the available options, and therefore make a choice in favor of the most suitable one.

Don't get emotional

As we said, emotions, especially momentary ones, often create serious obstacles in decision making. Due to emotions, you can lose sight of something important, focus on small things that often turn out to be insignificant.

Impulse and unconscious decisions lead to severe and not always reversible consequences, because in the process of such a choice a person is blinded by emotions and is not able to see the whole picture.

Set Priorities

For decisions to be correct, you must always. Many difficulties are due to the fact that a person makes decisions (or tries to do so) based on values that do not correspond to basic priorities.

Think about it: why are you making a choice at all? How suitable are the available options for your parameters? Will you be comfortable after the decision is made? Only through understanding what you really need can you come to the right decision.

Among other things, decisions that run counter to priorities often cause internal contradictions and conflicts with oneself, and mental health largely depends on this. Remember that making the right decisions, in addition to everything else, you also take care of your health. Priorities are always higher for those decisions that contribute to the achievement of your main goals.

Consider simple solutions

Earlier we said that instead of one alternative, you need to look for several, but there are some limitations here. For example, a wide range of options similar to each other is far from simplifying the decision. If the number of such options grows, the number of variables that serve as the basis for selection will also increase. And the more variables, the more difficult the choice.

In this case, you can use advice from the poker literature, which says that you need to create space for simple solutions. You need to try to avoid the need to make difficult decisions. This requires not the first stages to determine the basic priorities in order to understand what is really important, and what can be overlooked.

By doing this, you, firstly, will save the lion's share of time for thinking and analyzing all the options, and, secondly, you will simplify the task of choosing for yourself, because. only the most optimal alternatives will be at your disposal.

Try

You can think about everything FOR and AGAINST indefinitely. But it's much more productive to just get started. Of course, this option is more suitable for cases where it is possible to run a "test" version of the solution. This will help you find out what prospects await you after making a decision.

Keep in mind that even employees are hired for probation to understand how they will work, and only then make a decision on admission. This is the same test case. If there is no opportunity for a test, then collect as much information as possible to make the most accurate predictions.

Set conditions

To make effective decisions, you can use a trick - to set certain conditions (preferably unfavorable), under which specific actions will be performed.

When making a decision, you can fall into the trap of overconfidence, believing that everything will be fine. But when faced with problems, you can no longer take a step back, being strongly attached to your decision.

The conditions we are talking about will make it possible to avoid this. This means that you must set several variables under which your decision can be reversed. For example, you decided to invest in an investment project, but at the same time you promised yourself that if in a year the investments do not start to make a profit, you will leave the project - this is your condition.

This method helps to avoid difficult situations, allows you to see hidden risks and prepare for them, indicate ways of retreat and look at things more realistically. In addition, you will be less attached to your decision and get rid of excessive arrogance.

Accept criticism

Sometimes it helps to make the right decision to accept criticism from the outside. But it is important to understand what you need to be able to do, because it is not always constructive, especially when it is a projection of the fears and expectations of other people onto its object. In criticism, the psychological background is very important.

But still, the criticizing person should be perceived as a collaborator who helps you get rid of self-confidence and points to weak sides the decision you make. Criticism helps to look at the situation from a different angle and include this view in your point of view in order to get a more objective picture of what is happening.

Do none of the above

No matter how strange it may sound, there are situations when you can not follow any of the above tips. They help make decisions when options are driven by advantages and disadvantages. But there may not be any shortcomings, right.

If you understand that there is nothing to lose by choosing one of the options, put everything said above aside, make a decision and just watch what happens. One simple rule applies here: if the choice is worthless, you don’t need to think long - just act.

As you can see, learning to make the right decisions is not as difficult as it might seem. Naturally, there are very few people given advice to master this skill to the fullest, but for this our training “Decision Making” was created, which will also talk about other equally important things.

Decision Lessons

Our course includes five lessons that examine the individual components of the decision-making process. It has both a theoretical and practical focus, so the information you learn will be useful to anyone.

We advise you to go through the lessons in the presented sequence, but at the same time we recommend referring to auxiliary materials: we will give links to some of them, and you will have to look for some on your own (including books, the list of which is presented below).

Consistent passage of the lessons will allow you to better understand the features of making everyday and managerial decisions and assimilate the information in the best way, while being able to immediately apply new knowledge in practice. But let's clarify a little what kind of knowledge it will be.

As you yourself understand, decision-making is closely intertwined with human psychology. This topic is also very important for a more accurate assimilation of the specifics. this issue. One of the most popular and relevant research in this area today is the research of the Israeli-American psychologist Daniel Kahneman, who was awarded, among other things, the Nobel Prize for "the use of psychological methods in economics especially in the study of judgment formation and decision-making under conditions of uncertainty.”

in the fifth and final lesson training, we will talk about the psychological features of decision-making from the position of Kahneman and his colleague Amos Tversky. In particular, we will talk about two systems of thinking (fast and slow thinking), the prerequisites for the emergence of Kahneman's theory and the conclusions that he made thanks to his numerous experiments.

How to take classes

Training "Decision Making" aims to introduce you to the theoretical and practical foundations of decision making. Therefore, your task will be to approach the study of theory as carefully as possible and project knowledge onto the plane of practical application as quickly as possible.

1-2 days is enough to study each lesson, after which you can spend 1-2 days working in real conditions and studying auxiliary materials. Actually, practice should be present in your life all the time, because it will depend on it how quickly you master a new skill, and what results you can achieve.

Decision Making Books

The books that we have selected for you as additional materials are not just bestsellers that have earned popularity among readers around the world. In fact, this is a real treasure trove. useful information about everything that concerns decision-making both in everyday life and in professional and business life. The authors of these books are successful people who managed to reach the limits personal growth and productivity. Take advantage of the experience of these specialists, and serious results will not be long in coming.

Decision Making Books:

"What will you choose?" Tal Ben Shahar
"Why? Guidance for Finding Causes and Making Decisions. Samantha Kleinberg
"Problem solving using the methods of special services." Morgan Jones
"Jedi Techniques. How to raise your monkey, empty the inbox and conserve thought fuel. Maxim Dorofeev
". How to make the right decisions without doubt and stress. Guy Claxton
Why are we wrong. Thinking traps in action. Joseph Hallinan
“Microsolutions. A proven path to achieving big goals. Caroline Arnold
"Territory of delusions. What mistakes do smart people make? Rolf Dobelli
“Comprehension. The power of humanitarian thinking in the era of algorithms. Christian Madsbjerg
“All the right decisions. A Guide to Creating Breakthrough Strategies. Konstantinos Markides

And to conclude this introduction, we want to give you some food for thought. We offer you a small selection of quotes from famous people about the importance of decision-making skills. Let them once again point out to you why you need to be able to do this, and what significance all this has in the life of each of us.

Celebrity Quotes About Decision Making

“Before you think about solving future problems, learn to cope with today's problems in the least time and with greater efficiency”

“We need to discuss often, decide once”

“With an open discussion, not only errors, but the most absurdities are easily eliminated”

“The weak hesitate before making a decision; strong - after "

“There are no problems, there are only unpleasant solutions”

"Every complex problem has a simple, easy to understand wrong solution"

"Recognizing a problem is half the battle in solving it"

“He who wants to succeed must ask the right preliminary questions”

“All problems have a technical solution, it’s just that the biggest problem is choosing the right solution and abandoning those that entail other problems”

“Greatness is not in going to extremes, but in touching two extremes at the same time and filling the gap between them”

A managerial decision is a product of managerial work, and its adoption is a process leading to the emergence of this product. Decision making is the conscious choice of a course of action from available options to achieve an existing goal. A decision is a form in which the control action of the subject of control on the object of control is carried out. Therefore, the quality of managerial decisions is a criterion for the effectiveness of a manager.

The solution must meet a number of requirements. Chief among them are validity, clarity of wording, feasibility, timeliness, economy, efficiency (the degree of achievement of the goal in comparison with the expenditure of resources).

As a rule, decisions should be made where a problematic situation arises; for this, managers of the appropriate level must be given the appropriate authority, at the same time making them responsible for the state of affairs at the managed facility. A very important condition for the positive impact of a decision on the work of an organization is its consistency with those decisions that were made earlier (both vertically and horizontally (this, of course, does not mean the case when the task is to radically change the entire development policy) .

2. Classification of management decisions

Organizations make a wide variety of decisions. They differ in content, duration and development, focus and scale of impact, level of acceptance, information security, etc. With the help of classification, it is possible to distinguish classes of decisions that require a different approach to the process and methods of their adoption, which are not the same in terms of time and other resources (Table 1).

Table 1

Classification of decisions made in the organization

Programmable solutions are solutions to recurring and well-defined problems. As a rule, these are standard tasks that repeatedly arise in the organization, about which there is sufficiently reliable and reliable information, as well as ready-made, developed and previously successfully applied rules and procedures. The procedure establishes the order, sequence of actions, rights, obligations of the participants in the interaction in the decision-making process. As an example, we can cite the task of placing a periodic order for inventory for one of the workshops of an enterprise. For the development and optimization of programmable solutions, formalized methods are used that have a clear algorithm for solving the problem in the form of economic and mathematical models, methods for analyzing and calculating data, computer programs, providing high accuracy of quantitative assessment of the options being developed.

Non-programmable solutions are associated with new, complex, never seen before, unconventional, unforeseen problems that are not amenable to exact quantification. As a rule, they are difficult to define and structure, they are characterized by an unclear formulation of the goal, inaccuracy and uncertainty of information, and the absence of clear rules and decision procedures. When developing non-programmable solutions, heuristic methods are used. They are characterized by the fact that the development of alternative solutions is not based on exact calculations, but on logic, judgments and inferences. It uses professional knowledge high level qualifications, creative abilities of specialists in various fields. Non-programmed decisions include decisions related to setting goals and formulating an organization’s development strategy, changing its structure, forecasting work in new markets, etc. The number of such decisions increases as the scale and complexity of the organization grows, the dynamism and uncertainty of its external environment increase .

Intuitive decisions are choices made only on the basis of a feeling of being right. The decision maker does not weigh the pros and cons for each alternative, he does not evaluate the situation, but relies on insight, feeling. Intuition includes hunches, imaginations, insights, or thoughts that often spontaneously manifest themselves in consciously grasping a problem and in subsequent decision making. An intuitive approach can work well when analyzing urgent problems in a situation with difficult to define goals, inaccurate information and the inability to quantify.

Judgmental decisions are choices based on knowledge and experience. A person uses knowledge of what has happened in similar situations before and predicts the outcome of an alternative choice. Here there is a danger of missing out on a new alternative, as the leader is guided by the old experience of solving similar problems.

Rational decisions do not depend on past experience. The process of their adoption involves the choice of such an alternative that will bring maximum benefit to the organization. The search for the best solution is underway. The rational decision-making procedure includes seven successive steps:

1) problem definition;

2) formulation of restrictions and criteria for decision-making;

3) identification of alternatives;

4) evaluation of alternatives;

5) choice of alternative;

6) implementation of the solution;

7) feedback.

3. Factors influencing the decision-making process

Problem definition. Necessary condition decision making is the problem itself: if there were no problems, there would be no need for solutions. Problems are usually of three types: favorable, crisis and ordinary.

Crisis and routine are clear issues that should be considered by managers.

Favorable ones, on the other hand, are usually veiled, and the manager must discover them.

Since most crisis and routine problems by their nature require immediate attention, a manager can spend a lot of time looking at them and not have time to deal with important new favorable issues.

Many well-managed organizations attempt to move away from crisis and routine issues and focus on longer-term issues by defining forward-looking goals, strategies, and planning programs.

The first phase of identifying a problem is recognizing the symptoms of failures or opportunities. These symptoms are:

1) low profit, sales, labor productivity, product quality;

2) high costs of production and circulation;

3) numerous conflicts in the organization, high staff turnover, low motivation and dedication of the staff. The second phase of diagnosing a problem is identifying the causes of problems.

The next step is to rank the problem among other problems. The ranking can be based on the following factors:

1) impact on the organization;

2) urgency of the problem and time constraints;

3) support of the problem from the outside in favor of its solution;

4) life cycle Problems.

Formulation of constraints and decision criteria.

At this stage, resources for the implementation of the solution are taken into account. They must be realistic. Limiters can be time limits for the development and solution of the problem, the amount of funds allocated for this, the parameters of the effectiveness of achieving goals. In addition to constraints, the manager also defines the standards by which alternative choices must be evaluated. These are decision criteria. They have different content and form. The most complete criteria are developed for programmable solutions, where it is possible to use methods quantitative analysis and electronic data processing.

The application of economic and mathematical methods to solving managerial problems makes it possible to use the target function as a selection criterion, which usually needs to be maximized or minimized; Therefore, such a choice is called an optimization one. Examples of optimization criteria are: maximization of profit, income, productivity, efficiency; minimization of costs, losses from marriage or downtime, etc. The optimal solution is selected based on a comparison of the quantitative value of the objective function for all possible options; the best solution is the one that provides the most desirable value of the target criterion. An example of such solutions is the optimization of equipment loading, inventory, material cutting, etc.

To evaluate options for semi-structured solutions, a system of weighted criteria is used. Possibilities of this approach to selection the best option can be shown with a simple example. Suppose an organization is faced with the problem of choosing a supplier of the necessary materials. Several such firms were found, and all of them, during preliminary negotiations, agreed to cooperate with this organization. However, they offer different conditions regarding deliveries, prices, discounts, etc. It is required to determine the most suitable supplier. To do this, a comparative analysis of the proposed options is carried out with a focus on the most significant criteria for the consumer organization. Suppose that in this case the following criteria are chosen as such criteria:

1) price per unit of supplied material;

2) the size of the minimum supply;

3) conditions for granting discounts and benefits;

4) the quality of the material;

5) geographical location of the supplier company;

6) the status of the latter.

In terms of their importance for the organization, they are not the same, so they must be “weighed” relative to the main criterion. Let the price of the supplied material be defined as such, and it is given the maximum numerical rating, for example, 10. The rest are evaluated by comparison with the highest rating (Table 2), as a result of which they are assigned the weights indicated in the table.

table 2

Criteria weighting

In particular, attention should be paid to the fact that the organization attaches the same importance to the geographical location of the supplier firm as to the price of the supplied material. This is due to the high transport tariffs for freight transportation. The table also shows that the organization in question is not very concerned about the minimum size of the supply and does not attach much importance to the status of the supplier, although it still takes it into account in the selection. According to the selected and weighted criteria, all possible solutions are evaluated. Conventionally, four supplier firms are considered, which are designated as A, B, C, and D. In fact, there may be much more of them, but they are either unknown or not taken into account (for one reason or another). At this stage, a comparative assessment of each firm is made for each criterion (the result is presented in Table 3); the maximum score is 10. If we sum up all the scores received by firms for all criteria, then firm A will receive a sum of 40, B - 38, C - 34 and firm D - 37.

However, it is too early to make a final decision. It is necessary to take into account the different "weight category" of each criterion, and only after that it is possible to determine the firm that will be given preference. The results of this stage are presented in table 4, and a somewhat unexpected conclusion follows from them: the highest total scores with a significant lead are received by firm G, which at the previous stage occupied the penultimate place.

Table 3

Weighting options by selection criteria

Table 4

Total weighting of options by selection criteria

The use of this approach is based on the assumption that it is possible to determine all the criteria and solutions, that the priorities are known and that they, like the weights given to them, are of a constant nature. Under these conditions, the option with the highest score is chosen.

Identification of alternatives. Theoretically, it is necessary to identify all possible solutions to the problem, but in practice, the manager rarely has the knowledge and time to do this. Therefore, the number of alternatives for further consideration is limited to a few options that are considered good enough to improve the problem situation. Often new, unique problems arise. Then the choice of alternatives becomes a complex creative process.

There are many methods of creative search for alternatives, the main purpose of which is to generate ideas: brainstorming, group analysis of the situation, cause-and-effect diagram, morphological analysis, electronic brainstorming, etc. The task of the leader is to create a creative atmosphere for finding alternatives .

The conditions for creating such an atmosphere can be:

1) motivation in the search;

2) providing all the necessary information to fully understand the problem;

3) free discussion and admission of any ideas to solve the problem, exclusion of criticism of proposals;

4) allocating time for nurturing ideas.

Evaluation of alternatives. At this stage, the advantages and disadvantages of the identified options for solving the problem are determined. To compare alternatives, the criteria established in the second stage are used. If a solution does not meet the criteria, it is not considered further. An important point in the evaluation is to determine the likelihood of implementation of each alternative.

Choosing an alternative or making a decision. The best solution will be the one that is most consistent with the firm's goals and values while using the least amount of resources.

If the problem has been correctly identified and alternative solutions have been carefully evaluated, it is relatively easy to make a decision.

However, if the problem is new, complex, and you have to take into account many probabilistic factors or subjective information, it may turn out that no choice will be the best.

In this case, you can rely on intuition and experience. You can also resort to experimentation and the use of ready-made decision models for especially difficult situations.

Solution implementation. This stage allows you to determine the correctness, optimality of the decision. To implement the decision, it must be brought to the performers. They should receive clear information about who, where, when and by what means should carry out actions consistent with this decision.

It is necessary to develop a plan for its implementation, which provides for a system of measures to ensure the successful achievement of the goals.

One of the planning mechanisms at this stage can be the so-called decision tree, which allows, by decomposition of the selected option, to present a set of goals and objectives to be achieved and solved. Conditional example is.

Suppose, in the process of solving the problem of determining the organization's strategy for the future, the main strategic directions were chosen to ensure the achievement of the goal set by the management for this period: to survive in severe crisis conditions; maintain and strengthen its position in the market competitive products; create the prerequisites for further intervention in the markets, as well as for maximizing and building the capacity of the organization. These directions are formulated as follows:

1) to concentrate efforts on the production of competitive products A, B, C, using both domestic and foreign markets for its sales;

2) develop and implement a program of cooperation with other enterprises and organizations directly or indirectly related to the production of products A, B, C, in order to attract equity investments;

3) change the management system of the organization in order to de-bureaucratize it, create the most favorable conditions for the development of creativity and the use of a team work structure.

Feedback. It is carried out in the form of monitoring the implementation of the decision based on information about the progress of its implementation, measurement, evaluation and comparison of actual results with planned ones.

Control can reveal not only deviations from the planned action plan, but also the shortcomings of the solution itself, which require timely elimination.

To reduce such shortcomings, the control function should be carried out at all stages of the decision-making process.

This may make it necessary to repeat the procedures of the previous steps. Decision making becomes an ongoing process.

It does not end with the decision-making stage, the choice of a single option. Feedback provides managers with information that can initiate a new decision cycle.

4. Group decision making

In most organizations, many decisions are made in teams, groups. Managers often face situations that require discussion in meetings. This is especially true for non-programmable problems, which are new, complex, and involve great uncertainty in the outcome. Solving such problems by one person is rarely accepted on a regular basis.

It requires special knowledge in a number of areas that one person usually does not possess. This requirement, along with the obvious reality that decisions taken should be perceived and implemented by multiple departments of the organization, has expanded the use of a collective approach to the decision-making process.

There are many methods of group discussion of the problem and decision making. The main ones are: synectics, nominal group method, Delphi method, peer review method, consent planning, script writing. Let's take a closer look at synectics.

Synectics is a combination of different elements that do not correspond to each other. As a method, it involves the identification of opposite sides or trends in the object under consideration. Great importance is attached to the formulation of the problem. It is believed that premature formulation may hinder the search for original solutions. Therefore, the discussion often begins not with the formulation of the problem, but with the identification of the essence of the problem, the fundamental principles of the functioning of this object or process. This allows you to then move from the general range of problems to research specific conditions this task.

Constructive criticism is allowed in the synector attack. The main creative techniques used in synectics are different kinds analogies: direct, personal, symbolic and fantastic.

In a direct analogy, the problem or object under consideration is compared with similar problems or objects from another field (biology, engineering, medicine, etc.). For example, if the problem of adaptation is being solved, then it is easy to draw a parallel with a chameleon that changes color, etc. With a personal analogy, the participants in the “synector attack” try to get used to the problem or object, merge with them together, look at them from the inside in order to to better understand the conditions and mechanism of action.

With a symbolic analogy, a concise semantic formulation is selected in the form of a brief definition that reflects the essence of the problem under consideration. For example, a flame is visible warmth, strength is a forced integrity, etc. In a fantasy analogy, the developer introduces into the problem being solved some fantastic creatures or objects (for example, Aladdin's magic wand or magic lamp) that could do what is required according to the conditions of the task. Thus, with the help of analogies, developers try, when solving a complex extraordinary task, to see what is already known in the unknown, which allows using familiar methods. If an ordinary problem is solved, then the analogy allows you to avoid stereotyped thinking and look at the problem from a new, unexpected side and find an original solution.

Synectics is a more developed and complex way of creative group activity, the purpose of which is to formulate a solution. The synectic group is formed from researchers trained in creative work methods who are highly qualified specialists from different professions or different disciplines.

The age of the participants does not matter, but experience has shown that the most suitable "synectors" are people aged 25-40 years. It is believed that before the age of 25 a person does not have enough experience, and after 40 years he is no longer so receptive to new ideas.

Members of the synectic group should be distinguished by creative maturity, rich imagination and fantasy, independence and impartiality of opinion, the ability to take risks, the ability to abstract from habitual judgments, think outside the box and highlight the essence of the phenomenon, be relaxed and free in their thoughts, favorably perceive other people's ideas, be able to stop development found ideas in order to look for new ones, be focused and believe in the possibility of solving the problem. As experience shows, the formation of a synectic group can take a whole year. It is created on an ongoing basis, unlike groups organized for a short period, to solve any complex problems that arise in the organization.

She works full time for the time it takes to resolve a problem. The group is led by an experienced specialist who knows well the techniques of synectics. The main task of the synectic group is to use the experience and knowledge from different areas that the team members have to search for ideas and develop possible solutions.

From the inception of a project idea to the termination of a team, managers have to make decisions to move forward. Decisions made in the planning and implementation of the project are diverse both in complexity and in the scale of the resources involved in their implementation. As a rule, decisions are a choice of several options or alternatives. At the same time, each alternative carries a greater or lesser risk of failure, failure, wasted resources, effort and time. Therefore, the task of the project manager and project team members is to evaluate alternative solutions both in terms of resource and time parameters, and in terms of the risks of failure or performance of work with inadequate quality.

Areas of adoption and types of decisions in project management

With all the variety of projects, five decision-making areas can be distinguished, each of which is characterized by certain types of decisions and requires the appropriate skills and experience of managers. The examples below do not cover all types of problems and their solutions, but only illustrate the idea of the diversity and complexity of the tasks for each area of decision making.

1. For the field of solutions related to initiation project, when there is an understanding that a certain project or project phase should begin and it is necessary to involve resources in their implementation, the following decisions are typical:
- about the idea of the project, its purpose;
- about the expectations of the project owner;
- about the importance of the project for the organization on the basis of which it will be implemented;
- about the end user of the project results;
- on methods for assessing project risks;
- on the technical feasibility of the project;
- about the limitations of the project;
- about the resource provision of the project and a number of others.
2. For the area of solutions for planning The following solutions are typical for a project:
- about decomposing the main stages into smaller, easier-to-manage components;
- about the definition of work to be performed to achieve the various objectives of the project;
- the responsibilities of project team members;
- about interactions and interdependencies between jobs;
- about what resources (people, equipment, materials) and in what quantities will be required to carry out the work of the project;
- on methods for estimating the cost of resources;
- on the choice of the structure of the project team;
- on ways to link estimated costs to certain types of activities;
- on the use of various planning methods and technologies for the implementation individual works project and many others.
3. Region performance
- about the procedure for formalizing the design of the project;
- on the appointment of executors and managers of individual project works;
- about the tasks of the project team members;
- on the choice between potential project suppliers;
- on the conclusion of work contracts;
- transfer of project management functions to outsourcing;
- on financing the stages of the project work;
- about ways to inform project stakeholders about the progress of execution, etc.
4. For area control The project is characterized by solutions:
- about methods of monitoring and evaluating the work on the execution of the project;
- on the number of stages of control;
- on assessing the quality of project work;
- on reporting on the stages of the project work;
- on measures taken based on the results of control.
5. Area of problems completion The project is characterized by the following solutions:
- on the creation of a commission for the acceptance and transfer of the project to the customer;
- on evaluating the effectiveness of the project as a whole;
- regarding controversial issues between project stakeholders;
- on the conditions for closing contracts between project participants;
- about early completion of the project;
- on warranty obligations for the quality of the product or service of the project, etc.

All decisions made in project management can be divided into ordinary and administrative.

Ordinary solutions are the decisions that people make in everyday life. They are made by individuals, based on their personal interests and needs, and are in the nature of personal decisions. Since projects employ people who can pursue purely personal interests in their work, it is impossible to completely discount ordinary decisions, just the project management must ensure that ordinary interests do not go beyond the private life of people and do not affect their behavior when performing official functions.

Administrative decisions are taken to manage the project processes and are aimed at achieving certain project goals. They affect the interests of many people directly or indirectly associated with the project, so the responsibility of the project manager in making administrative decisions is high. He must be able to explain to team members, project owners, external stakeholders why he made this or that decision.

Administrative decisions can be divided into expert and managerial.

Expert Solutions are advisory in nature and are accepted by experts, analysts, consultants, i.e. persons who are not directly involved in the management of the project. For example, project financing solutions offered by independent financial analysts and consultants, or decisions on the environmental impact of a construction project, can be considered expert.

Management decisions are taken directly by managers and represent control actions aimed at achieving the goals of the project or its completion. They are undertaken to change the controllable factors affecting the project. After the management decision is made, it is communicated to the performers orally or is preliminarily drawn up in the form of a plan, order or other document.

In project management, four levels of decision making can be distinguished, each of which requires the manager to master certain key skills (Table 7.1).

Decisions made on routine level, are of a routine nature, are frequently repeated procedures. The manager is guided by the instruction or the existing program of action. Such decisions form the basis of the day-to-day work of front-line project managers. Situations requiring these kinds of decisions are easily recognizable. For example, such decisions are made by an accountant who issues a payment order in accordance with the invoice received, or an employee of the personnel department who prepares an order to dismiss an employee. Difficulties here can arise if the manager does not have a sense, misinterprets the available instructions for a particular situation, acts illogically, violates instructions, or shows indecision and cannot provide effective actions at the right time. Not required at this level creativity, since all procedures are predetermined.

Table 7.1. Decision-making levels and key skills (according to M. Woodcock and D. Francis)

Decision level	key skills
Level One: Routine	Strict adherence to procedure Reasonable assessment of the situation Humane Leadership Control/motivation
Level two: selective	Goal setting Planning Analysis/development Information analysis
Level three: adaptation	Problem identification Systematic problem solving Creation of working groups Possible risk analysis
Level four innovative	creative management Strategic planning System development

At the selective level of decision-making, initiative and freedom of action are required, but in limited. Here the manager evaluates the advantages and disadvantages of alternatives and tries to choose the best one. This may be a decision regarding the order of allocation of construction equipment for a particular object of the project or the choice of one of the candidates for the position of head of the department. Usually the choice between alternatives is not difficult to make, since the criteria are stable, consistent and understandable.

At the adaptation level, there are additional difficulties, since here the manager must develop a creative solution, which in a certain sense can be completely new. There is usually a set of proven options and some new ideas. The success of a manager depends on his personal initiative and ability to put forward new ideas. Such solutions provide an answer to problems that could have existed before, but in a different concrete form. The leader is looking for a new solution to a known problem. For example, these types of solutions include new approaches to rewarding project personnel or finding additional sources of project funding. Such decisions are typical for project managers of middle and higher levels of management.

Innovation Level characterized by the most complex, non-standard problems. In order to achieve a satisfactory result, they require a completely new approach. Often such a problem can be one that was poorly understood before, and completely new ideas and methods are required to solve it. The leader must be able to understand completely new and unpredictable problems, the solution of which often requires the development of the ability to think in a new way. The most modern and difficult problems may require the creation of a new branch of science or technology to solve them. These types of problems often include investment decisions, especially those involving high risks. In some cases, the creation of a new technical language, new computer programs, databases, tools or production facilities is required.

Useful for understanding the specifics of decisions in project management is the classification proposed by the American management theorist G. Simon. He proposed to divide all managerial decisions into programmed and non-programmed ones.

Programmed Solutions are accepted under well-defined conditions, and their adoption is a fixed sequence of steps in accordance with standard methods and rules, which reduces the likelihood of errors and increases the efficiency of decision-making, since it eliminates the need to develop new approaches, methods whenever an appropriate situation arises. Examples of such decisions could be scheduling employees, applying for Supplies, compiling a weekly or quarterly report on the work done, receiving materials in a warehouse or approving project documentation.

Unprogrammed decisions are new, unstructured solutions (that is, they cannot be broken down into a number of simple, programmed ones), standard methods cannot be applied to them, because they simply do not exist. The most important decisions in project management are non-programmed. They are characterized by a high level of uncertainty: making a decision does not automatically become a condition for its implementation.

On fig. 7.1 shows the relationship between certainty and uncertainty in decision making. As the level of certainty decreases and the level of uncertainty increases, decisions become less programmed.

Rice. 7.1.

It is the ability to make unprogrammed decisions that characterizes a good project manager, since a high level of intuition and understanding is required in making such decisions, therefore, especially in conditions of high project risk, a person who has a reputation as a good "problem solver" who knows how to find exit in the most difficult and confusing situation.

Types and types of management decisions. Management of the decision-making process Management decision-making in various systems