Financial forecasting forms the basis for calculating the planned budget of an enterprise, which usually includes a whole set of documents: an implementation plan, a production plan, an inventory budget, a plan (or calendar) of direct material costs, a pay plan, plans for overhead production, sales and administrative costs, a planned report income statement, cash flow plan ( cash flows), payment calendar and, finally, planned balance.

The difference between financial forecasting and financial planning is that when forecasting, the possible future financial consequences of decisions and external factors are evaluated, and when planning, the financial indicators that the company seeks to achieve in the future are fixed.

Financial forecasting is the basis for financial planning in an enterprise (i.e., drawing up strategic, current and operational plans) and for financial budgeting (i.e., drawing up general, financial and operational budgets). The starting point of financial forecasting is the forecast of sales and related expenses; end point and goal - calculation of needs for external financing.

Financial forecasting is used by businesses in market conditions in order to determine the prospects for growth, to develop a sound financial strategy that takes into account possible changes in the situation on the commodity and stock markets. Research and development of possible ways for the development of enterprise finance in the future has the main task of determining the expected volume financial resources in the forecast period, the sources of their formation, directions for their most effective use based on an analysis of emerging trends.

Forecasting allows you to consider possible development alternatives financial strategy ensuring the achievement of a stable position in the market and strong financial stability by the enterprise.

One of the main advantages of forecasting is that it serves as a basis for making completely conscious and reasonable decisions. It is impossible to do without it when accepting any investment project, since it is the future benefits from investing that determine the tactics of the current behavior of the enterprise and influence the choice of the appropriate direction of investment.

Various methods are used in financial forecasting. Important among them belongs to economic and mathematical modeling and the method of expert assessments. Economic and mathematical modeling allows, with a certain degree of probability, to determine the dynamics of indicators depending on changes in factors that affect the development of financial processes in the future. When building models, in turn, methods of regression analysis, extrapolation, etc. are used. The task of obtaining the most reliable results in the course of financial forecasting involves the addition of modeling by the method of expert assessments, due to which the quantitative values of different aspects of financial processes found in the course of modeling are subject to adjustment.

42. Evaluation of the effect of arbitrary leverage (PL)

PL(operational) is the potential opportunity to influence the gross income by changing the s/s and Vvyp.

PL is pok-l, answering on the?: how many times the rate of change in sales revenue > the rate of change in sales revenue. from the basis, (this is the dynamics of prices or the dynamics of natural sales, or both factors together. - not appr. otherwise than the dyn.

If the change in demand for food is only h / z change in prices, and the natural V sales remains at the basic level, then the entire amount of growth or intelligence calculated from sales at the same time becomes the amount of growth or intelligence approx.

If the base prices are preserved, but the nat. -th costs

Changes in prices are largely reflected in the dynamics of sales income than changes in natural V sales.

This means that PL is expressed by 2 orders: the 1st is calculated when only prices change in the plan period; the 2nd - when the current Vsales changes.

Price PL (CPL) and natural PL (NPL).

Calculation of each type based on the method of direct account of the increase in sales and profits.

wb-basisn.vyr-ka from sales; Etc- variable cost in base transfer; Itz- change in prices for realizable products in the plan.per-de; Ying- change nat.Vsales; deltaV-increase (mind-s) vyr.ot sales; Delta-increase (mind-s) profit from sales; Pb-basic income from sales; Lts- price operating leverage; ln-nat. opera th leviridge.

DeltaV=V*Uz, deltaP=V*Uz

Growth rate or intelligence B from sales \u003d V / delta V in fractions of a unit; growth rate of profit from sales \u003d delta P / V

DeltaV=Wb*IC; deltaP \u003d Wb * Itz

Lts=(deltaV/Pb)/(deltaV/Wb)= Tue/Fri

It is possible to determine the financial results from the sales of the plus period using the Lts sales in practice.

DeltaV=Wb*In

DeltaP=Wb*In-Pr*In=In(Wb-Pr)

With uv-ii Vprod.accordingly uv-Xia Pr at constant prices

(deltaP/Pb)/(deltaV/Wb)=[In(Wb-Pr)/Pb]*[Wb/(Wb*In)]=(Wb-Pr)/Pb

Ln \u003d (Wb-Pr) / Pb

NPL-ratio of Wb, reduced by Pr of the same period to BOP

NPL-relative margin. to Pb

Conclusions: 1. The higher the price of both types, the greater fluctuations are subject to income with the same change in sales. unprofitable level.

2. a large difference in the levels of CPL&NPL reflects a relatively strong influence of variable costs on the dynamics of sales income. prices. And vice versa, the smart calculation in the case of the smart nat. Vsales leads to a better financial result than the smart prices.

The use of the PL program when planning the calculation and income from sales allows, without special calculations, to determine the maximum ability to calculate the calculation to maintain breakeven from sales or the minimum required growth vyv.to eliminate the loss on sales.

Data driven financial planning financial forecasting, which is the embodiment of the organization's strategy in the market. Financial forecasting consists in studying the possible future financial condition of an economic entity, depending on the qualitative and quantitative assessments of the dynamics of financial resources and sources of their coverage in the long term, depending on changes in external and internal environment factors. Important point in the implementation of forecasting - recognition of the fact of stability of changes in the performance of the company from one reporting period to another.

The objects of financial forecasting are:

– profit and loss statement indicators;

– cash flows;

- indicators of the balance sheet.

The result of long-term planning is thus the development of three main financial forecast documents: a planned profit and loss statement; planned cash flow statement; balance sheet plan.

For preparation of forecast financial documents it is important to correctly define volume of future sales (volume of products sold). This is necessary for the organization of the production process, the effective distribution of funds, control over stocks. Among other things, the sales forecast gives an idea of the market share of the company, which it intends to win in the future. The sales forecast helps to determine the impact of production volume, selling price, inflation on the organization's cash flows.

As a rule, sales forecasts are made for 3 years. Forecasting sales volumes begins with an analysis of current trends over a number of years, the reasons for certain changes. The next step in forecasting is to assess the prospects for further development of the enterprise's business activity from the standpoint of the formed portfolio of orders for the structure of products and its changes, the sales market, competitiveness and financial capabilities of the enterprise.

Based on the sales forecast data, the required amount of material and labor resources, and other component production costs are also determined. Based on the data obtained, a predictive report about incomes and material losses, which allows you to determine the volume of production and sales of products in order to ensure their break-even, set the size of the desired profit and increase the flexibility of financial plans based on the analysis of the sensitivity of critical ratios (taking into account various factors - price, sales dynamics, the ratio of shares of fixed and variable costs).

Further developed cash flow forecast plan. The need for its compilation is determined by the fact that many of the costs shown when deciphering the profit and loss forecast are not reflected in the procedure for making payments. The cash flow forecast takes into account cash inflow (receipts and payments), outflows (costs and expenses) and net cash flow (surplus or deficit). In fact, it reflects the movement of cash flows from current investment and financial activities.

When planning long-term investments and sources of their financing, future cash flows are considered from the perspective of the time value of money, based on the use of discounting methods to obtain commensurate results.

With the help of a cash flow forecast, you can evaluate how much of the latter you need to invest in the economic activities of the organization, the synchronism of the receipt and expenditure of funds, check future liquidity

Forecast balance of assets and liabilities (in the form of a balance sheet) at the end of the planning period reflects all changes in assets and liabilities as a result of planned activities and shows the state of property and finances of an economic entity. The purpose of developing a balance sheet forecast is to determine the necessary increase in certain types of assets, ensuring their internal balance, as well as the formation of an optimal capital structure that would ensure sufficient financial stability of the organization in the future.

Unlike the income statement forecast, the balance sheet forecast reflects a fixed, static picture of the company's financial balance. There are several ways to make a balance sheet forecast. The most commonly used are the following:

a) a method based on the proportional dependence of indicators on sales volume;

b) methods using mathematical apparatus;

c) specialized methods.

The first method consists in the assumption that balance sheet items that are interdependent on the volume of sales (stocks, costs, fixed assets, receivables, etc.) change in proportion to its change. This method is also called the percentage of sales method.

Among the methods using the mathematical apparatus, the simple linear regression method, the curvilinear regression method, and the multiple regression method are widely used.

Specialized methods include methods based on the development of separate predictive models for each variable. For example, receivables are evaluated according to the principle of optimizing payment discipline, and the forecast for the value of fixed assets is based on the investment budget, etc.

Problems and ways of improving financial planning at Russian enterprises in modern economic conditions

Lisyutina Anastasia Sergeevna
REU student G.V. Plekhanov (PF), Russia, Pyatigorsk
Email: [email protected]
Scientific adviser: Baklaeva Natalya Mikhailovna
Art. Lecturer at the Department of Economics and Finance
REU them. G.V. Plekhanov (PF),
Russia, Pyatigorsk

The modern market is dynamic and Russian organizations have to work in a rapidly changing external environment, often under conditions of uncertainty. At the present stage of development Russian economy powerful tool financial management is financial planning, which also acts as an essential part of the financial mechanism of the enterprise.

Both small and large enterprises there is a high need for effective financial planning, but, as a rule, it is available only to enterprises that have significant funds to attract highly qualified specialists who are able to carry out large-scale planned work.

One of the most popular and promising areas for improving financial management today is to improve the quality of the financial planning system at the enterprise.

In connection with the financial crisis that began in 2008, it became clear that Russian enterprises have serious problems in the financial management system.

The majority of Russian enterprises consider the reduction in demand and growth as the primary negative consequences of the crisis. production costs which significantly affects profitability. Also, one of the most important problems is the lack of funding for new projects. These phenomena can have a negative impact on the long-term development of enterprises.

One of the reasons for these phenomena is the lack of timely, accurate and complete information, both about the current financial condition of the enterprise and about the future. AT modern conditions economic instability, it is necessary to predict the future, to predict possible changes in the conditions of enterprises' activities with the help of advanced planning and control.

One of the common forms of financial planning is budgeting. But at Russian enterprises, budgeting is mostly conditional and most often consists in monitoring individual indicators, for example, accounts payable and receivable. As a rule, enterprises do not draw up a forecast balance, limiting themselves only to various cash budget options, income and expense budgets, and so on.

A significant contribution to the process of disorganization of financial management is also made by Russian system accounting and the taxation mechanism associated with it, in connection with which detailed tax planning does not guarantee the absence of claims from the tax authorities.

In enterprise management, the most important role is played by the competent setting of management accounting, the data of which are the basis for the financial management of the enterprise. Internal information about the activities of the enterprise allows you to determine the need to attract additional resources, and also allows you to predict financial flows.

Information about the financial condition of the enterprise is confidential, so it is necessary to ensure the distribution of user rights to protect against unauthorized access to this information. The effectiveness of financial management of the enterprise depends on the timely assessment of the final result. It is not enough to analyze only the profitability of the enterprise. It is necessary to receive timely information on the main parameters that can show an objective picture of the financial condition of the enterprise. This will identify available sources of funds, assess the possible pace of development of the enterprise. The key factor here is the volume and quality of the information used.

Another difficulty that arises in the process of financial planning at Russian enterprises is the competent setting of goals by the heads of enterprises. As a rule, profit is most often chosen as the main goal. As a result, indicators of liquidity, balance of financial flows are not taken into account, which, in turn, cannot lead to the formation of an integral system of financial goals, which makes it difficult to achieve them.

A rather difficult task is the automation of accounting. As a rule, the principles of accounting at enterprises are different and are based on the specifics of the activities of a particular enterprise. When using a full-fledged financial planning system in an enterprise, it is necessary to ensure the passage of information through all accounting systems in order to provide operational data on the execution of previously adopted financial plans. At the same time, it is necessary to provide a sufficient level of detail of information.

The problem is that most software development designed to solve individual problems of financial planning. This can complicate the implementation of financial planning in the enterprise.

In our opinion, in modern conditions of financial management in enterprises, it is necessary to apply a new system of financial planning. In the first place should be Information Technology, which will allow the financial manager to consider different options for financial plans in in electronic format and, if necessary, adjust the financial plan with automatic recalculation of interacting items, which will significantly save time.

In view of the foregoing, it seems possible for us to single out the following, topical problems of financial planning at Russian enterprises and suggest ways to improve them:

1. Reality of formed financial plans. Real and effective management company is possible only if there is a rational plan for a long period of time, in modern conditions, at least for a year. As a rule, unrealistic plans are generated by unreasonable planned sales data, underestimated repayment terms for receivables, etc. As a result, the plans drawn up are not an effective financial management tool.

As a way to solve this problem, we can propose to increase the reliability of data by involving managers and qualified managers of various levels in the financial planning process.

2. Efficiency in drawing up financial plans. Even a well-written plan is ineffective if it is not presented by the given deadline. The reasons for the low efficiency are: the lack of a clear system for the preparation and transfer of planned information from department to department, the lack and unreliability of information, etc.

As a way to solve this problem, we can suggest linking the strategy with the operational level of management, that is, presenting the goals of the enterprise in digital terms and monitoring their achievement.

3. Detachment of long-term financial plans from short-term ones. It is characterized by the absence of a sequence of operations passing through all departments.

In the process of solving this problem, it can be proposed to coordinate the work of all departments of the organization and all areas of activity among themselves.

4. Feasibility of financial plans. This refers to the feasibility of plans in terms of providing the enterprise with the necessary material and financial resources, as well as the absence of a shortage of funds. As shows Russian practice, financial plans are often accepted with a deficit of up to 30-60%.

The way to solve this problem is to use various methods of economic forecasting and modeling situations, which will allow us to assess the impact of various factors on the activities of the enterprise and respond to them in a timely manner.

5. Automation of management accounting. The main problem is the development of the concept of the management accounting system and its adequate perception by all stakeholders in the enterprise.

The solution to this problem is to attract qualified specialists to develop and implement a unified management accounting system for a particular enterprise.

Further study by economists of the essence of financial planning, analysis of its features and problems within the Russian economy, as well as the development of areas for its improvement should help improve the quality of financial management at Russian enterprises and, in general, contribute to the growth of the country's economy.

List of sources used

Afonasova M.A., Business planning: Proc. Allowance./ M.A. Afonasova. Tomsk: El Content, 2012. - 108 p.
Baklaeva N.M., Financial management: Textbook.- Pyatigorsk, RIA-KMV, 2016.- 260 p.
Davydenko E.A., Problems of organizing financial planning and control at domestic enterprises // Financial management.- 2014.- №2.- P. 32-39.

Goals and objectives of financial planning and forecasting at the enterprise

At present, the issues of financial planning are of particular relevance. Financial planning is one of the main functions of financial management in an enterprise. Financial planning can be defined as the ability to anticipate the goals of the enterprise, the results of its activities and the resources necessary to achieve certain goals. Financial planning covers the most important aspects of the financial and economic activities of the enterprise, provides the necessary preliminary control over the formation and use of material, labor and financial resources, creates conditions for strengthening the financial condition of the enterprise.

Transformations in the economy and construction market relations, the instability of the economic situation today allow us to fully appreciate the importance and necessity of financial planning for the activities of any business entity. It is uncertainty that increases the risk entrepreneurial activity, and hence the need for planning and forecasting in market conditions.

The main goal of financial planning in an enterprise is to substantiate the enterprise development strategy from the standpoint of an economic compromise between profitability, liquidity and risk, to determine the required amount of financial resources to implement this strategy.

Financial planning as a management function covers the entire range of activities for the development of plan targets and their implementation. Financial planning at the enterprise solves the following tasks:

specifies business prospects in the form of a system of quantitative and qualitative indicators of development;
reveals reserves for increasing the income of the enterprise and ways to mobilize them;
provides the reproduction process with the necessary sources of financing;
defines the most effective use financial resources;
ensures the observance of the interests of investors, creditors, the state;
controls the financial condition of the enterprise.

The basis of financial planning in the enterprise is the preparation of financial forecasts. Financial forecasting is a long-term development of changes in the financial condition of the object as a whole and its parts. Forecasting focuses on the most likely events and outcomes. Forecasting, unlike planning, does not set the task of implementing the developed forecasts directly in practice. The composition of forecast indicators can differ significantly.

The current planning system has a number of shortcomings. The planning process at the enterprise in modern conditions is very time-consuming and not predictable enough. In the conditions of instability of the Russian economy, it is impossible to reliably conduct a scenario analysis and analysis of the financial stability of an enterprise to changing business conditions. In the practice of most Russian enterprises, there is no management accounting, the division of costs into fixed and variable, which does not allow using the indicator in the planning process contribution margin, evaluate the effect of operating leverage, conduct a break-even analysis, determine the margin of financial strength. The planning process traditionally begins with production, not with the sale of products. When planning the volume of sales, the costly pricing mechanism prevails. The price is formed based on the full cost and the rate of return, not taking into account market prices. This leads to the creation of non-competitive products, and, consequently, to biased planned indicators of sales volumes, which will obviously differ from the actual results of the enterprise. The planning process will be delayed in time, which makes it unsuitable for making operational decisions. management decisions. Financial, accounting and planning services operate separately, which does not allow creating a single mechanism for managing the financial resources and cash flows of the enterprise.

Building effective system financial management is the main goal financial policy carried out at the enterprise. The development of the financial policy of the enterprise should be subordinated to both the strategic and tactical goals of the enterprise.

The strategic objectives of the financial policy are:

maximizing the profit of the enterprise;
optimization of the structure of funding sources;
ensuring financial stability;
increasing investment attractiveness.

The solution of short-term and current problems requires the development of accounting, tax and credit policies of the enterprise, the policy of managing working capital, accounts payable and receivable, managing the costs of the enterprise, including the choice of depreciation policy. The combination of the interests of the development of the enterprise, the availability of a sufficient level of funds for these purposes and the preservation of the solvency of the enterprise is possible only if the strategic and tactical tasks are coordinated, which are formalized in the process of financial planning at the enterprise. The financial plan formulates financial goals and criteria for evaluating the activities of the enterprise, gives the rationale for the chosen strategy and shows how to achieve the goals. Depending on the goals, strategic, short-term and operational types of planning can be distinguished.

Strategic financial planning defines key indicators, proportions and rates of reproduction. In a broad sense, it can be called growth planning, enterprise development planning. It is long-term in nature and is associated with the adoption of fundamental financial and investment decisions. Financial plans should be closely linked to the company's business plans. Financial forecasts only acquire practical value when the production and marketing decisions that are required to bring the forecast to life have been worked out. In world practice, the financial plan is the most important element of business plans.

Ongoing financial planning is necessary to achieve specific goals. This type of planning usually covers the short and medium term and is a concretization and detailing long-term plans. With its help, the process of distribution and use of financial resources necessary to achieve strategic goals is carried out.

Operational financial planning is the management of cash flows in order to maintain a stable solvency of the enterprise. Operational planning allows you to track the status working capital enterprises, to maneuver sources of financing.

The financial part of the business plan is developed in the form of forecast financial documents, which are designed to summarize the materials of the previous sections and present them in value terms.

The following documents should be prepared in this section:

1) income forecast;

2) cash flow forecast;

3) balance forecast.

Forecasts and plans can be made to any level of detail. Drawing up a set of these documents is one of the most widely used approaches in the practice of financial forecasting. A financial forecast is a calculation of the future level of a financial variable: the amount of cash, the amount of funds or their sources.

As you know, the activity of the enterprise is usually divided into three main functional areas:

1) current;

2) investment;

3) financial.

Under the current activity of the enterprise is meant the activity of the organization, pursuing the extraction of profit as the main goal or not having the extraction of profit as such a goal in accordance with the subject and objectives of the activity, i.e. production of industrial products, performance construction works, agriculture, trade, catering, harvesting agricultural products, leasing property and other similar activities.

Under the investment activity of the enterprise is understood the activity of the organization associated with the capital investments of the organization in connection with the acquisition of land, buildings and other real estate, equipment, intangible assets, as well as their sale; with the implementation of long-term financial investments in other organizations, the issuance of bonds and other valuable papers long-term nature, etc.

Under financial activities enterprise means the activities of the organization related to the implementation of short-term financial investments, the issuance of bonds and other short-term securities, the disposal of previously acquired shares, bonds, etc. for up to 12 months.

The preparation of forecast financial documents usually begins with the preparation of an income forecast (forecast profit and loss statement). It is in this document that the current activities of the enterprise are reflected (Table 7.1).

Table 7.1

Forecast of financial results of the current activity of the enterprise

Profit and loss forecast reflects the production activities of the enterprise. Therefore, it is also called outcome prediction. production activities. Sometimes the process of producing and marketing products or services is called operations. The forecast of financial results will only be reliable when information about the growth prospects of the main production indicators, the dynamics of which was justified in other sections of the business plan.

Profit and loss forecasting should begin with a sales forecast. Information on sales volume can be obtained from the section of the business plan on the planned sales volume.

This forecast is intended to give an idea of the market share that the company is going to win. Building a sales forecast begins with an analysis of products or goods, services, existing consumers. In doing so, the following questions must be answered.

What was the level of sales for last year?
How will relations with buyers of products for its payment develop?
Is it possible to predict the same level of product sales as in the reporting period?

At the same time, it is very important to analyze the base period, since it is it that provides answers to a number of questions and allows you to predict the impact of individual factors on sales in the upcoming period. Thus, it is possible to assess how volume indicators will be affected by changes in product quality, price level, demand level, and therefore, to more accurately determine the amount of revenue from sales of products based on the forecast sales volumes for the planned year and forecast prices, as well as predict the expected changes in terms of costs and future profits of the enterprise. The most important task of each business entity is to obtain more profit at the lowest cost by observing a strict regime of savings in spending money and using it most efficiently. The cost of production and sales of products is one of the most important qualitative indicators of the activities of enterprises. The composition of costs for the production and sale of products is regulated by the Regulation on the composition of costs for the production and sale of products (works, services) and the procedure for the formation of financial results taken into account when taxing profits, approved by the Government Decree Russian Federation dated August 5, 1992 No. 552 with subsequent changes and additions.

In the presented calculation of profits and losses, not all elements of the costs of the enterprise are reflected in the procedure for making payments. Many of the cost elements shown in the income statement have no effect on the entity's payments. So, for example, materials used in the production process could be purchased and paid for many months before these costs are reflected in the profit and loss calculation. At the same time, the opposite situation may also occur, when materials are used in the production process, are taken into account in the profit and loss forecast, but are not paid. Cost elements such as rent, payment utilities, interest on a loan, etc., occur gradually over the course of a year and are therefore shown in the income statement as equal amounts. In reality, such payments are made on a quarterly, semi-annual or annual basis, and therefore the data for the months in which they are actually made may be much higher. For these and other reasons, a business making a profit does not necessarily mean that cash has increased, and an increase in cash does not mean that the business is making a profit. Therefore, it is necessary to plan and control both parameters. There can often be big differences between cash and profit. You can plan cash flow by making a cash flow forecast (cash flow plan). The construction of this document is based on the cashflow analysis method (cash flow, or cash flow).

When forecasting cash flows, it is necessary to take into account all possible sources of cash receipts, as well as directions of cash outflows. The forecast is developed by periods in the following sequence:

1) forecast of cash receipts;

2) cash outflow forecast;

3) calculation of net cash flow (surplus or shortage);

4) determination of the total need for short-term financing.

All receipts and payments are displayed in the cash flow plan for periods of time corresponding to the actual dates of these payments, taking into account the delay in payment for products or services sold, the delay in payments for the supply of materials and components, the conditions for the sale of products, as well as the conditions for the formation production stocks.

The forecast of cash receipts involves the calculation of the volume of possible cash receipts. The main source of cash flow is the sale of goods. In practice, most businesses keep track of the average time it takes customers to pay bills, i.e. determines the average turnaround time.

The main element of the cash outflow forecast is the repayment of accounts payable. It is believed that the company pays its bills on time. If accounts payable are not repaid on time, then deferred accounts payable become an additional source of short-term financing.

Calculation of net cash flow is carried out by comparing the projected cash receipts and payments.

Thus, the cash flow forecast (cash flow plan) shows the cash flow and reflects the activity of the enterprise in dynamics from period to period.

The surplus or deficit data shows in which month you can expect cash inflow and which you can not, so these two parameters are extremely important. In other words, they reflect how the business brings in money (fast or slow). The closing balance of a bank account monthly shows the state of liquidity. A negative figure not only means that the company will need additional financial resources, but also shows the amount necessary for this, which can be obtained through the use of various financial methods.

There are several parameters that appear in the earnings forecast and are absent in the cash flow forecast, and vice versa. The earnings forecast does not contain data on capital payments, subsidies, VAT, and the cash flow forecast does not contain information on depreciation. Depreciation deductions belong to the category of calculation costs, which are calculated in accordance with established depreciation rates and are included in the process of calculating profits as expenses. In reality, the accrued amount of depreciation deductions is not paid anywhere and remains on the company's account, replenishing the balance of liquid funds. Therefore, there is no item “Depreciation charges” in the cash flow forecast. Thus, depreciation deductions play a special and very important role in the system of accounting and planning of the enterprise, being an internal source of financing. They are a factor stimulating investment activity. The greater the residual value of the assets of the enterprise and the higher the depreciation rate, the lower the taxable profit and, accordingly, the greater the net cash flow from the production activities of the enterprise.

To check the correctness of the forecast of profit and cash flow, it is advisable to develop a forecast balance. For this purpose, use the balance sheet prepared as of the last reporting date or at the end of fiscal year. This method of financial forecasting in the literature is called the method of formal financial documents. This method is based on the directly proportional dependence of almost all variable costs and most of the current assets and current liabilities of sales, which is why this method is sometimes called percentage-of-sales forecasting. In accordance with this method, the enterprise's need for assets is calculated in order to increase the volume of sales of products and the profit of the enterprise. This calculation is based on the condition that the assets of the enterprise increase in direct proportion to the growth in sales, and therefore, for the growth of assets, the enterprise needs additional sources of financing.

The task of the forecast balance will be the calculation of the structure of funding sources, since the difference between the asset and the liability of the forecast balance will need to be covered by additional sources of external financing.

The process of compiling profit and balance forecasts ends, as a rule, with a choice of ways to attract additional financial resources and an analysis of the consequences of such a choice. The choice of funding sources is also a balancing act. The compilation of these documents does not give a complete picture of the financial stability of the enterprise. In order to assess the solvency and liquidity of the forecast balance, in addition to the forecast of profit and balance, a cash flow forecast is necessarily compiled.

Financial forecasting in the organization.

The process of obtaining predictive levels of indicators is called forecasting (from the Greek. forecast- foresight, prediction).

The basis of long-term planning is forecasting.

Forecasting- activities aimed at identifying and studying possible alternatives for the future development of the enterprise.

The main purpose of the forecast is to determine the trends of the factors influencing the market situation.

financial forecasting- this is a substantiation of indicators of financial plans, foresight financial position for any other period of time.

Forecasting stages:

1. Making a sales forecast by statistical and other methods.

2. Making a forecast of variable costs.

3. Drawing up a forecast of investments in the main and current assets necessary for the forecasted sales volume.

4. Calculation of the need for external financing and finding appropriate sources (taking into account the rational structure of the organization's sources of funds).

Financial forecasting is a mechanism for using specific methods to calculate the main financial indicators. The main methods include econometric forecasting, mathematical modeling, trending and expert assessments.

Of the many approaches to forecasting, three groups of methods are most widely used:

Methods of expert assessments- multi-stage survey of experts according to special schemes and processing of the results obtained using the tools of economic statistics. Disadvantages: reduction or complete absence of personal responsibility for the forecast made. Expert assessments are used to predict the values of indicators and in analytical work, for example, to develop weight coefficients, threshold values for controlled indicators, etc.

The sequence of execution and processing of expert surveys:

1) determination of the purpose of using the expert method, selection of experts and formation of expert groups;

2) determination of the size of the expert group, which can be carried out on the basis of the use of indicators of mathematical statistics or on the basis of a "pragmatic" approach;

3) formation of questions and compilation of questionnaires;

4) formation of rules for determining the total assessments based on the assessments of individual experts. To determine the degree of consistency of expert assessments in statistics, the Kendall concordance coefficient is used. (W) whose value lies in the range of 0 before 1:

5) work with experts;

6) analysis and processing of expert assessments. The prioritization method discussed earlier, the ranking method, etc. can be used.

Stochastic Methods suggest the probabilistic nature of the forecast and the relationship between the studied indicators. The probability of an accurate forecast increases with the increase in the number of empirical data. These methods occupy a leading place in terms of formalized forecasting and vary significantly in the complexity of the algorithms used. The simplest example is the study of sales trends by analyzing the growth rates of sales indicators (extrapolation).

Deterministic Methods - consist in the presence of functional or rigidly determined relationships, when each value of the factor attribute corresponds to a well-defined non-random value of the effective attribute. Using this model and substituting into it the forecast values of various factors, it is possible to calculate the forecast value of one of the main performance indicators - the return on equity ratio.

Another illustrative example is the income statement form, which is a tabular implementation of a rigidly determined factor model that links the effective attribute (profit) with factors (sales income, cost level, tax rate level, etc.).

The list of predicted indicators may vary, and according to their set, forecasting methods can be divided as follows:

Methods in which one or more individual indicators are predicted that are of the greatest interest and significance to the analyst, such as sales revenue, profit, production cost, etc.

Methods in which forecast reporting forms are built entirely in a typical or enlarged nomenclature of articles. Each article (enlarged article) of the balance sheet and report on financial results. The advantage of the methods of this group is that the resulting reporting allows you to comprehensively analyze financial condition enterprises.

Reporting forecasting methods, in turn, are divided into methods in which each article is forecasted separately based on its individual dynamics, and methods that take into account the relationship between individual articles both within the same reporting form and from different forms.

Let's consider some concrete methods of forecasting financial indicators.

Coefficient method. With the help of coefficients based on the achievements of the previous period, somewhat refined, they calculate the estimated income and costs, payments to the budget and extra-budgetary funds.

balance method. The substantiation of individual items of financial plans, even in the most progressive ways, will not ensure the reality of tasks if incomes and expenses are not balanced.

The essence of the balance method is the coordination of costs with sources of coverage, the relationship of all sections, as well as financial and production indicators.

Discounted cash flow method- used in the preparation of financial plans to predict the totality of time-distributed receipts and payments of funds. The concept of discounted cash flows is based on the calculation of the present (present) value of expected cash inflows and outflows. The discounted cash flow method reveals the outcome of financial decisions without reference to traditional accounting assumptions. Estimation of predictive changes in financial flows for a certain period of operation of the enterprise based on the time factor may differ from traditional economic analysis.

Questions for self-control

1. Essence of planning

2. Financial planning in the organization.

3. Goals and objectives of financial planning in the organization

4. The essence of the strategic plan

5. Essence production plan

6. Tasks of financial planning

7. Types of financial planning in the organization

8. The main objective of financial management

9. The essence and purpose of the business plan

10. Budgeting is a financial planning tool

11. Methods for forecasting the main financial indicators of the organization.