The main risk factors are:

Qualification asymmetry of persons wishing to get a job,

Professional imbalance of supply and demand in the labor market,

Blurred moral and value attitudes individual workers,

Actions by criminal elements;

Low skill level of workers,

Low level and quality of life of people.

To the main factors influencing the occurrence of personnel risks M.Yu. Khromov says:

1. Internal factors that determine the conditions for the occurrence of risks. (They are manageable, that is, they depend on the management of the enterprise and (indirectly) on external factors).
2. External factors that determine the degree of risk. (They are not manageable, that is, they do not depend on organizational management, but they determine the personnel policy of the enterprise.)

Khromov classifies risk events into accidental (unintentional) and non-random (purposeful). Accordingly, the causes of personnel risks also differ. Thus, accidental personnel risks can be caused by the following reasons: ♦ lack of awareness of the essence of what is happening and the consequences of one's actions; ♦ negligence, inattention, violation or lack of relevant rules and instructions;

♦ inappropriate in-house training;

♦ own vision of the situation (good intentions);

♦ gap between true and declared organizational values. Purposeful risky behavior is mainly due to:

own vision of the situation (good intentions); personal gain; individual values ​​different from the values ​​of the organization; the gap between the true and declared organizational values; low interest in the existence (development) of the organization; intra-corporate political intrigues, intergroup conflicts; disloyalty, demotivation, conflict (sometimes with specific individual). Disloyal employees sabotage work, they have little interest in quality and deadlines, in extreme cases they can deliberately harm the company.

Personnel security is “the security of an organization, achieved by reducing the risks and threats associated with personnel, their intellectual potential and labor relations in general, and depending on three factors”:

1. Hiring. It includes a set of security measures in the search for candidates, selection procedures, documentary and legal support for hiring, probation and adaptation. As well as safety procedures in the preparation of certification, in the planning of training.
2. Loyalty. A set of measures to establish positive relations between employees and employers. The enterprise, saving on this article, will be forced to spend even more resources on the activities of the next block.

Control. A set of measures from the regulations, restrictions, regimes, control and other operations and security procedures established for personnel and administration. It is aimed at eliminating the possibility of causing damage and is worked out, as a rule, by the security service.

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Introduction

3.1 Assessment of environmental factors

3.3 Assessing the probability of risk

3.6 Method of verbal functions

Introduction

In the conditions of the formation of a market economy in our country, planning the needs of an enterprise for personnel is a rather complicated type of forecast, because it requires taking into account: the level of education, professional skills and abilities of the personnel that the enterprise needs.

In the system of measures to implement the economic reform, special importance is attached to raising the level of work with personnel, putting this work on a solid scientific foundation, and using the experience accumulated over many years of domestic and foreign experience.

Personnel planning is defined as “the process of ensuring that an organization has the right number of qualified personnel hired in the right positions at the right time”. According to another definition, personnel planning is “a system for the selection of qualified personnel, using two types of sources - internal (employees available in the organization) and external (found or attracted from the external environment), which aims to meet the needs of the organization in the required number of specialists in specific time frame".

Personnel planning as one of the important functions of personnel management consists in the quantitative, qualitative, temporal and spatial determination of the need for personnel necessary to achieve the goals of the organization. Personnel planning is based on the development strategy of the organization, its personnel policy. The function of workforce planning is becoming increasingly important in supporting the strategy of the organization, since an accurate consideration of future needs allows a clear orientation in the development of plans for training and work with the reserve. However, it should be noted that the planned economic growth programs of the organization are increasingly not provided with appropriate management personnel, they pay more attention to financing and investment issues.

The relevance of the topic is related to the peculiarities of the Russian mentality, since in our country, if accurate planning is not carried out in the activities of personnel management in accordance with its needs, then this activity is less effective. Only with the proper organization of personnel records and monitoring of the results of the work of employees can high productivity and quality of work be achieved, and as a result, a competitive company.

1. The concept of personnel risk. Types of personnel risk, their classification

personnel risk probability threat

In practice modern enterprises in order to streamline business processes related to personnel, a personnel management system is formed. An important component of an effectively functioning personnel management system of an organization is the mechanism for managing personnel risks.

Personnel risk - a situation that reflects the danger of an undesirable development of events that directly or indirectly affect the functioning and development of the organization, personnel, society as a whole and the occurrence of which is associated with an objectively existing uncertainty due to a number of reasons: inefficiency of the personnel management system; behavior, action (inaction) of the personnel; external environment of the organization.

Based on the above definition, subjective and objective personnel risks can be distinguished. Objective personnel risks take place regardless of the actions and against the will of the organization's personnel. In the case of subjective personnel risks, the occurrence of any adverse events depends on the actions of a particular employee of the enterprise. Personnel risks occupy an important place in the system of entrepreneurial risks, which is due to a number of their features. First, the direct relationship between the level of personnel risk and the rate of return is not obvious, that is, an increase in the level of personnel risk does not lead to the maximization of the profit function of the enterprise. Secondly, the source or object of personnel risks is the personnel of the organization or an individual employee. Thirdly, the impossibility of fully transferring personnel risks to other market participants.

An approach to the classification of personnel risks has been developed, which reflects the socio-economic essence of personnel risks and allows planning and organizing the process of managing them on a systematic basis.

In modern theory and practice, there is no consistency in solving the issues of classification of personnel risks. At the same time, the reliability of ensuring the security of an organization is directly related to the completeness of ideas about personnel risks, which, in turn, requires an exhaustive, systematically presented classification of personnel risks. The classification of personnel risks, which involves their division into groups according to certain criteria, allows you to assess the place of each risk in common system and creates potential opportunities to select the most effective appropriate risk management methods and techniques.

Based on the foregoing, a classification of personnel risks is proposed in the form of a table.

Table 1. Classification of personnel risks (HR)

By area of ​​localization
Internal risks	External risks
By source of risk
Personnel risks	Risks of the personnel management system
By object of risk
Employee risks	Organizational risks	State risks
According to the systematic manifestation
Systematic risks	Unsystematic risks
By type of activity of the organization
Risks production activities	Risks in financial activities	Risks in business activities	Risks in innovation activity	Risks in management, etc.
	According to the results of activities
Pure risks	Speculative risks
	Possible extent of damage
Local		Significant	Global (strategic)
	According to the degree of regularity of potential manifestation
One-time (random) risks	Regular risks	Permanent risks
	According to the degree of sensitivity to the CI of various groups of stakeholders
Acceptable Risks	Acceptable Risks	Unacceptable Risks
	According to the degree of legitimacy
Justified risks	Unjustified risks
	For reasons of occurrence
Accidental (unintentional) risks	Non-random (targeted risks)

2. Analysis of problems of personnel risks

Risk analysis begins with a qualitative analysis. Quantitative methods rely on mathematical predefined strict dependencies and rules. So, for example, to the main factors influencing the occurrence of personnel risks, M.Yu. Khromov attributes: the qualification asymmetry of people who want to get a job, professional imbalance of supply and demand in the labor market, blurred moral and value attitudes of individual workers, actions by criminal elements; low level of qualification of workers, - low level and quality of life of people. Then he also divides into internal and external factors, into random and non-random. The same situation is observed in the classification of the personnel management system. In such a presentation, it is difficult for the practitioners of the organization to navigate risk management, since they are unaddressed and causeless. An analysis of the works on risk management by domestic and foreign authors allows us to conclude that by now, risk management activities have been well structured, which includes the following main areas: qualitative risk analysis, its identification, quantitative risk assessment, choice of risk management method and tool, risk prevention and control, risk financing, evaluation of results. The risks of personnel management in an organization can be observed already during the selection of employees of the organization. The risk of creating a negative image may arise already at the stage of the search for a candidate, for example, due to illiterate content and the form of the announcement of vacant position.

Theory and practice have developed various risk management methods: risk avoidance or evasion, risk dissipation, risk diversification, risk insurance, risk absorption, transfer (transfer) of risks to another economic entity, risk limitation.

The risk management process includes: risk management planning; diagnostics of risks, assessment and ranking of risks, selection of measures and analysis of effectiveness, monitoring of activities at all stages. In the process of risk management, one should be guided by the following principles: scale, minimization (limiting, hedging and insurance), adequate response, reasonable risk acceptance. The integration of risk management into the overall management process is expressed, in particular, in the fact that almost all departments of the company are involved in risk management: representatives of functional departments are involved in the identification and analysis of risks as experts, they are also involved in the development of measures to manage their risks and actually management of these risks, monitoring of their level, implementation of measures to prevent the onset and eliminate the consequences of risk events. At the same time, the risk management service retains the functions of coordination and control, as well as the consolidation and analysis of information on risk events and the development of the necessary corrective actions based on the data received. Thus, it is necessary to include sections of the analysis of personnel risks and risks in personnel management in the organization's personnel management system in the organization's in-house training programs.

3. Methodology for the analysis of personnel risks and their assessment

Within the framework of this chapter, target audience we will understand Russian companies that use information technology (IT) to capitalize production, as well as organizations for which information warfare is one of the mechanisms to remain competitive in the international market.

Let's consider what properties the organization's risk analysis and assessment methodology should have:

Ease of understanding by management and employees;

Low labor costs for implementation and operation;

Flexibility to modify the implementation as the organization grows or shrinks;

Possibility of continuous monitoring;

Possibility of integration into the corporate information security system (IS) based on the process approach;

Satisfaction with the requirements of international standards;

Accounting for the human factor;

Fault tolerance.

A risk-based approach is at the heart of modern corporate governance. Risk assessment allows you to make informed decisions, choosing the right protection mechanisms and prioritizing. Risk assessment helps avoid many crises. After the crisis, those who managed risks correctly remain. Considering small and medium-sized organizations on Russian market, it is worth noting their diversity associated with a large number of different cultures and economic conditions and, accordingly, needs. Among the existing products for risk analysis for almost any organization, it is possible to find a product with a number of advantages and benefits, but a universal product does not exist today.

The methodology for analyzing personnel risks should take into account the following aspects:

Types of personnel risks;

Probability and level of personnel risks;

Potential losses from the implementation of personnel risks;

Measures to manage personnel risks;

HR risk management budget;

Sources of financing for measures to manage personnel risks;

Deadlines and persons responsible for the implementation of measures to manage personnel risks.

The proposed methodology for analyzing personnel risks in working with the organization's personnel has hallmark transformation of the personnel risk management system itself, its focus on the prevention and prevention of personnel risks (Figure 2).

Figure 2. The logic diagram of the personnel risk analysis methodology

The central point of the developed methodology is the analysis and assessment of personnel risks, based on the method of expert assessment.

To assess personnel risks, it is proposed to use two criteria:

1) the result (the magnitude of the consequences) from the manifestation of the risk;

2) the probability of risk manifestation.

In order to manage risks, they must first be identified, i.e. assessed and measured. Risk analysis, i.e. assessment of the degree of risks, ensures their minimization and includes an assessment of the impact of environmental factors, an assessment of the likelihood of threats, an assessment of the economic damage from the implementation of threats. Risk assessment using the apparatus of probability theory is quite laborious. Here are some simple techniques used in practice.

3.1 Assessment of environmental factors

The assessment of environmental factors is based on taking into account two components: the strength of the impact of the factor in the present and the likelihood of an increase in this impact in the near future. In this case, the use of J. Wilson's method gives good results (Table 1).

Table 1 . Wilson matrix

3.2 Assessing the probability of occurrence of threats

The assessment of the probability of manifestation of threats is based on the definition of the frequency of their implementation. Here the risk ranking method is used, i.e. selection of "weight" coefficients (table 2).

3.3 Assessing the probability of risk

When assessing the probability of risk, the Harrington matrix is ​​used (Table 3).

Table 3. Harrington Verbal Numerical Scale

Personnel risk change interval	Personnel risk level	Description of personnel risk
1.0/0.8 Average score-0.9	Critical (very high)	The probability of manifestation of personnel risk is maximum; the consequences of personnel risk are very high
0.8/0.63 Average score - 0.71		The probability of manifestation of personnel risk is high; the consequences of personnel risk are significant
0.63/0.37 Average score - 0.5		The probability of manifestation of personnel risk is average; consequences of personnel risk are insignificant
0.37/0.2 Average score - 0.28		The probability of manifestation of personnel risk is low; the consequences of personnel risk are small
0.2/0 Average rating - 0.1	Minimal (very low)	Manifestation of personnel risk is unlikely; the consequences of personnel risk are minimal

Possible economic damage (risk value) is determined by the product of the damage from the implementation of a specific threat, including lost profits, and the probability of this threat. As A. Artemiev noted, both employers and employees have been managing risks to the life and health of workers associated with production activities for as long as the concept of “labor protection” exists. Only this assessment was intuitive, unconscious. Moreover, the irresponsible slogan about the “priority of the life and health of workers” over the tasks of production activity was and still remains in use. the possibility of the existence of production activities without any risk to life and health is allowed. The axioms of life safety unanimously state that this is impossible. Therefore, there are labor protection services and risk management. It is sometimes said that the term "risk management" is a misnomer, since it only makes sense to reduce risk. Unfortunately, it is not. In some cases, an employer may deliberately increase the acceptable level of risk for employees, for example, when responding to emergency situations, when fulfilling urgent but very profitable orders, or by waiving some previously established labor protection requirements if, after risk assessment, it turns out that these restrictions associated with negligible risks (but still risks). How does unconscious (implicit) risk assessment differ from risk assessment within the framework of a modern labor protection management system? Firstly, risk assessment should not be a spontaneous (subconscious) process, but the result of a conscious, purposeful activity in which both the employee and the employer should be interested. Secondly, risk assessment should be quantitative, since the magnitude of the risk is directly related to the amount of wages (risk premium), and risk reduction activities should also be quantified, since they require costs. Thirdly, risk assessment should be objective, based on principles, methods, approaches, etc. recognized by both the employer and the employee. This means that the approach to risk assessment in the workplace should be simple, understandable, including ordinary employees. Therefore, the assessment methodology occupational risk an occupational injury or occupational disease (hereinafter referred to as occupational risk) must meet the following requirements: 1) the methodology must provide quantitative risk assessment data (in this case, various quantitative scales can be used: interval, rank, ratios, etc.); 2) the methodology should be simple and clear, i.e., ensure the possibility of its application by representatives of the junior management of enterprises (foreman, foreman, site manager, foreman), i.e. those managers who actually manage risks; 3) the methodology must satisfy the requirement of reproducibility of the estimates obtained with a given accuracy (for example, in the event of labor disputes, when confirming compliance, as well as when assessing the effectiveness of the measures taken to reduce risks).

3.4 Quantifying probabilities and risks

Risk assessment makes it possible to finance risks on the basis of insurance, which implies the possibility of their quantitative assessment. To assess the risk, it is necessary to know the expected amount of damage and the probability of its occurrence or the frequency of damage.

The probability, or frequency, of damage. It is estimated most often on the basis of statistical data on the number of damage cases per set of objects exposed to this risk.

Expected value of damage E(x).

If X1 and X2 are two possible outcomes having, respectively, probabilities P1 and P2 , then

E(X)=P1 (X1)+P2 (X2)

Direct risk assessment methods involve identifying potential hazards, assessing the likelihood of each hazard occurring in different options Р*i and the estimated severity C*i of the consequences of each i-th option:

where R* is the risk of damage associated with the possible implementation of the i-th option of one of the identified hazards. Such calculations should be made for each of the identified hazards at each workplace.

The maximum amount of damage is determined for a specific insured in order to establish the maximum possible amount of monetary claims against the insurer in the event of an insured event. Indicators of deviations of actual results from expected ones. The probabilistic nature of the insured events determines the possibility of deviation of the actual statistics of losses from the expected one. The scatter or degree of variability in possible outcomes is measured in terms of variance, standard deviation, and variation. The relationship between frequency and magnitude of damage may be different for different risks. The most common are two types of their combination. The first type, characteristic of most risky situations, is characterized by relatively high frequency and small damages. These are the risks of loss or destruction of property, industrial injuries, and so on. The second type combines low frequency and significant damage. An example is aviation and maritime disasters. Their probability is not significant, but if these events occur, they lead to very large damages. Risks as a distribution of damage probabilities can be transferred between business entities.

For this purpose, there are various types of contracts at the disposal of the entrepreneur, among them an insurance contract. The transfer of risk to insurance is called risk transfer. The problem lies not only in the fact that such rare (from the point of view of statistics) events as an accident at work (at the workplace) is almost impossible to estimate the probability of their occurrence with acceptable accuracy. In addition, it is necessary to calculate the probability of occurrence of one of the options for the implementation of each hazard. At the same time, it is possible to estimate the direct material damage for the employer and for the employee as a result of a certain outcome quite accurately. For example, when a painter works on scaffolding, it is possible that he will fall. With what probability? And with what probability, as a result of a fall, will he dislocate his arm (small damage), and with what probability will he break his leg (large damage)? What is the probability that a worker will die as a result of a fall? In this case, the probabilities will change from floor to floor.

3.5 Risk assessment method based on the probability of damage matrix

The possibility of direct quantitative risk assessment without directly calculating the probabilities of events is implemented in the well-known risk assessment method based on the "probability-damage" matrix.

The essence of the method lies in the fact that the expert for each situation determines the rank of probability e? occurrence (for example: low probability, medium probability, high probability) and the potential damage corresponding to this situation (for example: small, medium, large).

At the intersection of the corresponding column and row, we find the desired conditional risk value. At the same time, the magnitude of the risk can also be presented in quantitative terms (Table 4).

Table 4. Matrix "Probability - damage"

This method is the most commonly used in developed countries due to its simplicity. In addition, since risk assessment in the workplace is the employer's legal responsibility in most developed countries, this simple method allows the employer to meet the government's occupational health and safety regulations at the lowest cost. The obvious disadvantage of this method is its absolute subjectivity. It is clear that different experts will evaluate the same situation differently, based on personal knowledge, experience, feelings, even personal mood. It is not a fact that the same expert some time later can assess the same risk in the same workplace in a different way.

3.6 Method of verbal functions

This approach makes it possible to practically eliminate subjectivity in assessing the probabilities of events and their consequences; however, it requires very thorough preliminary work and highly qualified experts who make up verbal descriptions of various situations. The essence of this approach lies in the fact that each quantitative value of the probability of an event is associated with a verbal description of a well-defined situation (Table 5). In this case, each time when describing a particular probability, it is necessary to be guided by the rules:

1. Any situation that does not fit this description fits another description.

2. No real or virtual situation can match two or more descriptions at the same time.

3. The formulation of a certain condition for the occurrence of a hazardous situation should be associated with a certain protective measure that should be provided for the complete elimination of this condition.

4. When implementing the protective measure associated with the description element (as a result of eliminating one of the conditions for the occurrence of the event), the situation moves to a higher level (the probability of the occurrence of the event decreases).

In this case, the improvement of the design (protective properties) of the equipment (from “eliminating the possibility of exposure to the BPF on the worker” with the existing possibility of its manifestation to the complete “elimination of the possibility of the manifestation of BPF” in the environment) reduces the probability of exposure from 0.2 to 0.1.

It is clear that the same situation can lead to different outcomes: from mild injury to death (the event "no accident" is not taken into account). In order not to get confused in the abundance options, you can use the approach used in assessing the risks associated with the operation of hazardous production facilities, i.e. take into account only two outcomes: the most probable and the most unfavorable. Risks are assessed for each outcome. More risk is taken into account. If different safeguards are to be applied to mitigate both risks, then both risks must be taken into account.

Table 5

Probability notation	Probability	Description of the condition for the occurrence of the event is extremely small
Extremely small		1. Applied constructive measures, excluding the possibility of manifestation of a hazardous production factor (OPF); 2. Theoretically, the manifestation of BPF is possible as a result of an extremely unlikely accident or equipment breakdown; 3. There is no information about the relevant accidents or breakdowns and related accidents in the organization itself or in other organizations
Very small		1. The possibility of manifestation of the OPF is not excluded, but constructive measures have been taken to exclude the possibility of the impact of the OPF on the employee, including the intent of the employee himself; 2. Other organizations are known to have had related accidents.

A distinctive feature of the proposed approach lies in its pronounced proactivity (focus on mastering the situation in order to achieve the goal). In this case, the risk is assessed without assessing the frequency of the expected event. The main essence of the approach is as follows: if the exclusion of an unfavorable outcome is not guaranteed, then this outcome will come sooner or later, but it will certainly come. The task is only to estimate the amount of potential damage from outcomes that are not completely excluded. The estimated probability of an event occurring is actually the reciprocal of the amount of time that can be scheduled for taking risk management measures.

Of course, the resulting score is not a "risk" exactly as defined. Moreover, it can be argued that this estimate will be deliberately overestimated, and the complete elimination of risk can be achieved (in accordance with the axioms of the BDZ) only as a result of eliminating the source of risk.

4. Personnel risks by example oil company. Development of measures to minimize risks

This chapter is devoted to the personnel risks of oil companies, the concepts of personnel risk, its types, and the consequences associated with it are considered. Personnel risks are the probabilities of causing material or moral damage to an enterprise in the process of making and implementing personnel decisions. And the situation on domestic market of the oil and gas industry is such that the task of providing the business with the necessary human resources in the context of the current imbalance in the labor market becomes one of the highest priorities for any company. Therefore, activities related to personnel should be given more precise and continuous attention.

The chapter highlights the main types of risks for most oil companies in Russia and presents their minimization.

The oil industry is a perfect example of a high-risk business. The main personnel risks that can be attributed to the industry include: the occurrence of accidents and emergencies at the fields, information security and protection of trade secrets, staff turnover and a lack of qualified resources, and a decrease in employee motivation. When examining the labor market in the oil and gas sector of Russia, it is worth paying attention to the fact that the specifics of the oil and gas industry is the presence of a fairly large number of single-industry towns that are built around giant oil and gas fields, primarily in Western Siberia. In this regard, when attracting young workers, a number of additional problems arise in terms of staff mobility, career and financial expectations, and the psychological factor.

The situation that has developed in the domestic labor market is such that the task of providing business with the necessary human resources in the context of the current imbalance in the labor market is becoming one of the highest priorities for any company.

At the same time, the problem of shortage of personnel and ever-increasing competition for highly qualified personnel goes beyond individual industries or regions.

However, despite the fact that the demand for highly qualified personnel is constantly growing in the industry, the level of professionalism of oil workers is becoming more and more strict requirements.

The rate of change in the external environment has increased so much that corporations can no longer afford not to change: they are looking for the most effective management approaches, revising the organizational structure, expanding areas of activity, and improving the system of training specialists. However, there are barriers to change, which mainly include:

Resistance from employees (from simple performers to top managers);

Absence corporate culture supporting change;

Poor communication between employees;

Failure to complete assigned tasks;

Failure to strategize.

For many oil companies in Russia, the following types of personnel risks can be distinguished, first of all, the main ones include the risk of a shortage of personnel, namely:

1. Lack of qualified resources;

2. The risk of transfer of skilled workers to other companies, or the most "fashionable" sectors, in particular in the field of renewable energy production.

3. Risk of indispensability of more mature personnel. Since many key engineers, senior managers and other professionals are mostly reaching retirement age, there may be a risk in the future that there will not be enough young professionals in the organization to replace and fill their places. And also, when attracting young workers, a number of additional problems arise in terms of staff mobility, career and financial expectations, and the psychological factor.

4. It should also be noted the risk associated with an incorrect assessment of personal and professional qualities job candidate, i.e. qualification and educational risk. In this regard, there is a possibility of financial, temporary losses.

5. It is necessary to highlight the risk of reducing employee motivation, which is associated with a drop in his productivity, this may affect the results of performance functional duties, including a negative impact on employees interacting next to such an employee. A large degree of risk is associated if a key employee of the Company loses motivation, then indirect losses from the realization of such a risk can increase many times over.

6. Many companies prioritize the development of research and development, and they invest heavily in this, then the risk of information security and the protection of trade secrets is associated with this.

7. Undoubtedly, there is another personnel risk associated with the remoteness of the fields, the risk of the employee adapting to difficult environmental conditions, and the lack of personnel to work on a rotational basis. All this is connected with the negative factors of the Far North: a long period of low temperatures, daily fluctuations in atmospheric pressure, strong winds, a deficit of ultraviolet rays, strong winds, water features, radiation background and much more, all this is characterized by a significant stress on the main body systems: cardio-respiratory , endocrine, vegetative, nervous.

8. Since the main oil resources are concentrated in the West Siberian oil and gas province, where, as noted above, there are difficult natural and climatic conditions and work in areas that have not been fully explored, therefore, for personnel working in the fields, there is a risk of accidents and emergencies during operating conditions, (risk to the health and safety of personnel), which do not allow easy exit from the danger zone, because this staff is located in close proximity to the production area.

Before drawing up recommendations for minimizing risks, it is necessary to highlight which personnel risks can most significantly affect the Company's activities. Thus, Table 6 presents an analysis of risks using expert assessment and identifies the most significant ones.

Table 6. Collection of expert assessments for personnel risks of oil companies in Russia

Name of risk					Mean
Lack of qualified resources
Staff turnover
Decreased employee motivation
Information security and trade secret protection
Adaptation of the worker to difficult environmental conditions
The occurrence of accidents and emergencies

Through expert evaluation, it was found that the most critical risk associated with personnel is the occurrence of accidents and emergencies. The second most important is the lack of qualified personnel, which can lead to various losses, and lead to other, for example, operational risks. From the presented risks, it is possible to identify a relationship, for example, a decrease in employee motivation can lead to staff turnover in other companies, as a result, there is a risk of either a shortage of qualified personnel, or even the absence of the right candidate. Dissatisfied staff, after leaving the company, can contribute to the disclosure of trade secrets.

Minimization of personnel risks, perhaps, should be started with those personnel risks that have the greatest impact on the company's activities.

1. From Table 6, the first risk is associated with personnel working at the fields, there is a risk of accidents and emergencies under the condition of operation, (risk to the health and safety of personnel), in order to avoid serious negative results, you need to:

o careful selection of candidates who know, First of all, everything theoretical basis specialties;

o professional training and training;

o help of mentors to young specialists;

o constant monitoring of the state of technological installations, a program for updating equipment;

o Increasing the level of automation of process control so that personnel are at a minimum in close proximity to the production area;

o maintain archives of equipment operation, create reports.

2. The second equally important and possible personnel risk is the lack of qualified resources. This risk is associated not only with the transfer of skilled workers to other companies, or the most “fashionable” sectors, in particular to the production of renewable energy sources, but also to the fact that many personnel of companies will soon reach retirement age, in connection with which will leave their jobs. To be affected by this risk, you need:

o because many companies cooperate with many educational institutions, then it is worth regularly holding events aimed at popularizing the professions and specialties of the oil and gas complex. To do this, carry out thematic classes in the areas of activity of companies, organize study tours at production facilities.

o maintaining targeted training;

o an annual scientific and technical conference of young scientists and specialists, which allows attracting young personnel to improve technological processes, introduction of new technologies, increase of production efficiency;

o maintaining an effective system of remuneration and motivation of personnel;

o formation of a personnel reserve;

o professional retraining and education.

3. Staff turnover is the third of the analyzed risks. To reduce it, the following minimization options are proposed:

o maintaining a corporate culture and a friendly team that clearly understands the purpose and strategy of companies;

o conducting surveys of satisfaction with their work and the working conditions of employees, so it will be possible to find out what does not satisfy employees, which in the future will help to avoid dismissal of personnel of their own free will;

o identifying the reasons for the dismissal of each employee and maintaining statistics on these reasons, and as a result, the formation of a new system for selecting and adapting employees. For an effective selection and evaluation system, it is necessary to have: job descriptions, regulations on structural units, clear criteria for the selection and evaluation of candidates, valid and reliable methods for evaluating candidates, qualified selection and evaluation specialists;

o maintaining the company's image.

4. The next considered risk is the adaptation of personnel in difficult environmental conditions, in particular, natural and climatic factors and the lack of infrastructure at remote fields. To impact on environment, namely, the natural and climatic conditions are unrealistic. But still, you should consider some options to reduce this risk:

o an important factor influencing the course of adaptation is the possibility, subjectively perceived by people, of realizing their needs (“social expectations”), taking into account the time of their realization.

o the wide geography of recruiting places for personnel, for example, shift teams, correlates with the constant improvement of the organizational infrastructure. Thus, the transport system should provide for the delivery of personnel to the base cities and to the shift by road, rail and air transport.

o if we consider shift method, as the most popular for work in remote fields, then shift camps must be provided with the necessary inventory and equipment, staffed with service personnel.

o decision on official level the issue of special training of direct line managers of rotational teams: foremen, heads of sections and shops.

5. Of the analyzed risks, the risk of a decrease in employee motivation for companies is in the penultimate place. Due to the fact that companies attach great importance to this. To attract and retain highly qualified specialists and ensure their interest in labor process company uses effective system wages and staff motivation. The material interest of company employees is based on a wage system with annual indexation, a system of annual and quarterly bonuses for meeting production and technical and economic indicators, as well as on incentive methods for rationalization work and innovation, the development of new technological processes. However, the risk still exists, so it cannot be neglected. The most effective risk minimization option: regularly hold various competitions professional excellence where employees will be awarded organizational, municipal, district and regional, departmental, and state awards for winning. This system is one of the incentives to increase the efficiency and productivity of labor and promotes the active participation of employees in the production activities of companies.

6. The last risk considered is related to information security and the protection of trade secrets. Minimization:

o disciplinary, material, administrative, criminal and civil liability for the disclosure and loss of information constituting a trade secret.

o organization of control over the handling of information by employees of companies. Permanent internal and external control. Legal, ethical, psychological and technical problems of the organization of control. The content of the regulation for monitoring the use by employees of the means of storing, processing and transmitting information.

Bibliography

1. Slobodskoy A.L. Risks in personnel management, - St. Petersburg, 2011

2. Mitrofanova A.E. Development of a methodology for managing personnel risks in the organization's personnel management system // Internet journal "Science Studies". 2013 No. 1.

3. Mitrofanova A.E. The concept of personnel risk management in work with the personnel of the organization // Competence. 2013. №3.

4. Mitrofanova A.E. Classification of personnel risks in the organization's personnel management system // Bulletin of the University (GUU). 2013. No. 7.

5. Gaifullina M.M., Sosina N.V. Economic sciences. personnel risks. Minimization of personnel risks //Internet resource

6. Evtushenko E.V. Personnel Management. Tutorial. Ufa: publishing house "Oil and Gas Business", 2004. 173s

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Operational risks: causes

Operational risk occupies a special place among the risks of the company and is formulated as the risk of direct and indirect losses due to a distorted construction of business processes, ineffective internal control procedures, technological deviations, unauthorized actions of personnel and external influence. Since these risk-forming factors are partly in the sphere of influence of the company's management, there is a possibility of limited impact on the source of operational risk. For this reason, the main direction in managing the company's operational risks is their minimization, and not optimization, which is typical for other types of risk.

The dominant role in the occurrence of operational risk is played by the internal uncertainty of the company's functioning process, which is associated with the impossibility of accurately predicting human behavior in the process of work (human uncertainty), with the complexity of the technology used, the level of equipment reliability, the pace of technical re-equipment of production, etc. (technical uncertainty) and with the desire of people to educate social connections and groups, to behave in accordance with accepted mutual obligations, roles, traditions (social uncertainty).

The potential opportunity to increase the company's competitiveness lies in the area of ​​operational risk management by minimizing the risks associated with the technologies used, but primarily with its own personnel.

The process of managing the company's human resources is continuous and should include: formulating goals, objectives and requirements for personnel, selection and hiring of employees, performance evaluation, development and training, personnel movement, system rationalization work motivation, wages and incentives. It is necessary to take into account the fact that the corresponding risks arise at each stage of the management process, but at the same time there are conditions for their minimization. For example, at the stage of developing requirements for personnel, job risks may arise as a discrepancy between a particular position and the types of activities, functions, goals, tasks, and technologies. The cause of job risk should be sought in the irrational distribution of functional responsibilities in staffing company or in a distorted job description. To minimize this risk, a reasonable structure of positions, powers and responsibilities should be formed and used as a tool not to job description describing the main functions of the employee, and the description (model) of the workplace is the main document that allows, among other things, to assess whether the candidate for filling the vacant position is able to perform the relevant functions.

The company's management considers a person working at the same time as "economic" (subject to the need to perform assigned work for a certain material reward), "psychological" (psychologically ready to work), "technological" (subject to work operations) and "ethical" (subject to the requirements professional ethics). At the same time, in the organizational environment, a person working is both “acting” and “communicating”. The “acting” person manifests himself in interactions and counteractions, and the “communicating” person feels himself attached or alienated in the communicative space of the company. Interaction in the organizational environment and the involvement of a person in the organization create conditions for the development of cooperation, and alienation from the organization causes confrontation. The involvement or alienation of a person from the organization is largely the result of his socialization in the organizational environment, which can be of the nature of merging with the environment, cooperation or conflict. merger testifies to the employee's loyalty. Cooperation associated with the need for the employee to enter the organizational environment to participate in joint activities and achieving personal goals, but is not a guarantee of loyalty to the organization. Conflict deprives a person of the possibility of unconditional entry into the organizational environment.

The absence or low level of involvement of an employee in the organization is one of the main reasons for the emergence of personnel risks. Numerous studies of corporate relations indicate that no more than 30% of employees are absolutely loyal to their company, but about 50% of employees are ready for illegal behavior and are able to harm their company if this does not lead to negative consequences for them, and 20% seek in order to satisfy their needs, damage the company even at the risk to themselves. Management practice states that only 20% of attempts of unauthorized access to confidential company information are carried out from the outside and hacks computer networks carried out equally by independent hackers and disgruntled employees of companies. About 80% of the material damage to companies is caused by their own personnel.

Operational risks arise from the actions or omissions of the company's personnel. There are three main reasons for their occurrence:

Insufficient (or excessive for individual representatives) level of human capital of personnel;

the human factor as a reflection of the psychological portrait of the individual, inadequate functional or official duties;

· a low level of involvement of a person in the organizational environment as a result of the absence (or unacceptability for all) of a single business culture of the company.

Formation of the company's internal control system

The initial prerequisite for creating an effective mechanism for minimizing all types of operational risk is the formation of an internal control system (HR audit) of the company, which should ensure:

· the unity of the personnel audit system within the organizational structure of the company;

continuous monitoring of the current activities of the company's personnel;

prompt identification and assessment of risk factors;

availability of reliable, timely and complete information for assessing current activities and making decisions.

Due to the fact that the basis competitive advantage of any company are its key and unique competencies, reflecting the level of knowledge, skills and abilities of the staff, the system of internal personnel audit contributes to:

• real assessment of the market value of the company;
• assessment of the place in the competitive environment and market prospects of the company;
• improvement of management methods;
• dynamic response to changes in the competitive environment;

· timely release from the "personnel ballast" and the growth of labor productivity.

Building a company's personnel profile

The personnel audit system should be based on the personnel profile of the company, which, based on the understanding of the organization as a socio-technical system, should be built separately for the production and management personnel of the company (business unit). In our opinion, the construction of a company's personnel profile should be based on the theories of a specific idea of ​​the object of motivation by D. McGregor (theories "X" and "Y") and V. Ouchi (theory "Z"). Following these theories, the personnel profile of any company, regardless of the field of activity, the adopted management system, the complexity of the organizational structure, etc. can be represented by three categories of personnel:

• category “X” (resistant workers), unable and unwilling to work;

Confirmation of this assumption is the situational leadership model of Harsey and Blanchard, which operates with the concept of “follower maturity” as the degree to which people have the ability and desire to perform the task set by the leader. The model identifies four stages of follower maturity:

M1 - the group is not able and unwilling to work due to its incompetence or self-doubt;

M2 - the group is not able, but willing to work, having the motivation to act, but not having the skills and abilities;

M3 - the group is able, but unwilling to work, because it is not attracted by the proposed work;

M4 - the group is able and willing to do what the leader suggests to it.

The personnel profile of a company can be considered as a set of four categories of personnel: personnel, personnel, personnel-resource, personnel-capital, in which it is easy to trace the correspondence to the stages of maturity of followers.

Due to the fact that the maturity of a person in a group is stable, slowly changing under the influence of investment in human capital characteristic, it can be argued that:

• category "X" corresponds to group M1 (personnel);
• category "Y" corresponds to groups M2 and M3 (personnel and personnel-resource);
• category "Z" corresponds to the group M4 (personnel-capital).

The rational personnel profile of the company's personnel should reflect the level of personnel qualification sufficient to perform labor functions and a high degree motivation for productive work while minimizing the number of workers who are unable and unwilling to work. These features of the group of workers of category "X" are not a stable characteristic, but are inherent in any employee during the period of production and social adaptation to the organizational environment. Qualification and educational risks in this case have the highest probability, but with an insignificant degree of impact due to the fact that the new employee is under the supervision of a mentor and the level of the employee's official influence is extremely low. The main conditions for the successful adaptation of an employee should be to ensure that the employee merges with the group, to overcome the stereotype of avoidant motivation in his mind and to consolidate the patterns of incentive motivation.

basis labor collective companies are made up of category “Y” employees - these are, as a rule, middle-aged people who actively form their human capital, knowledge and skills. The level of probability and degree of impact of qualification and educational risks in this group have average values.

It is generally accepted that highly qualified workers and senior management personnel should be classified as category “Z” employees who are able and willing to work, and the number of such employees is limited by the list of existing positions in the company's staffing table. Due to high qualifications, the probability of risk in this group is relatively small, but the degree of impact is extremely high. In our opinion, employees of this category are unevenly placed in all levels of the company's management without taking into account fixing in the organizational structure of management. These are people with incentive motivation, mentors and members of the personnel reserve at all levels. In addition, the content personnel work aimed at preventing personnel risks, should contribute to the professional and social development of any employee, instill in him an interest in work, the ability and desire to work. The principle "You know - it means warned" contributes to a positive perception of the technological discipline by the employee, which reduces the likelihood of risk situations. For this reason, the more employees of category “Z” are represented in all divisions of the company at all levels of management, the higher the competitiveness of the company's personnel as a whole.

The method of complex assessment of personnel "assessment center"

To draw up a personnel profile of the company's personnel, you can use a variety of widely tested methods of personnel assessment. Despite the fact that company management has access to numerous evidence-based methods of both initial and subsequent personnel assessments, in Russian practice only a limited part of them are used, primarily interviews and testing. It seems to us that when compiling a risk personnel profile of a company, one should focus on the method of comprehensive personnel assessment, called the “assessment center”. Psychological assessment in the selection and placement of personnel is a relatively new form of work with managerial personnel. A feature of this method is that it allows you to simultaneously solve such specific management tasks as identifying optimal candidates for leadership positions, development of recommendations for improving the leadership style, reducing the risk of losing valuable employees and motivational risks. According to foreign psychologists, the criterion validity of the assessment center reaches 0.75.

The structure of the assessment center includes three groups of methods:

methods of background diagnostics, i.e. diagnostics of common behavioral traits (personality and intelligence tests, tests of interests and achievements, etc.);

Methods focused on "past" behavior (interviews to study attitudes, analysis of bibliographic data, use of the results of observations of what is being evaluated by colleagues from the immediate environment, i.e. analysis of references - judgments of colleagues);

· Methods focused on actual behavior (observation of the behavior of those being assessed in specially created situations - business games, analysis of labor behavior in real activity).

The choice of specific diagnostic indicators, diagnostic methods, evaluation criteria is carried out on the basis of a professiogram (list of requirements) corresponding to a specific job position being evaluated in the organizational structure of the company's management. Professiograms form the system basis of the assessment center and are the basis for designing assessment procedures. The assessment center technology includes the following main methodological steps:

analysis of the requirements put forward by the position (profession) and the preparation of professiograms;

choice of method for making value judgments;

planning and conducting an assessment center;

· aggregation and interpretation of the obtained data.

The results of building a risk personnel profile of the company's personnel make it possible to develop a set of personnel strategies to prevent (minimize) risks. The validity of decisions made on personnel strategies is determined by the use of appropriate risk management methods and a personally oriented system of personnel motivation. Among the well-known methods of risk management, each of which may correspond to a specific personnel strategy, include: evasion (avoidance), transfer, separation, self-insurance, consolidation, localization, diversification, limitation, compensation, warning. In our opinion, in modern Russian conditions, company management should pay special attention to the development and implementation of strategies to prevent (minimize) demographic, qualification, educational and motivational personnel risks.

Personnel risks and methods of their management

Personnel risk is characterized as the risk of a probable loss of company resources or shortfall in income compared to the option calculated for rational use human resources, as a result of possible miscalculations and errors in human resource management.

According to surveys key to international companies there are now risks associated with human factor: insufficient qualifications of employees, the problem of replacing old personnel with new ones and fears about the departure of especially valuable employees. These problems now pose a greater threat to business than the reputational risks that were perceived as key a year ago, as well as political risks and the risks of applying the latest information technologies. The situation is made even more acute by the fact that only 32% of respondents believe that they manage to effectively manage the risks that human capital carries. Only terrorism (31%) and the threat of global climate change (23%) cause less self-confidence among risk managers. There are several reasons why companies believe that human capital risks are the biggest threat to their business. The most important of them is an acute shortage of personnel in certain industries and regions, for example, in engineering and health care. And in China, there is a severe shortage of talented managers. In developed countries, the problem of "talent costs" is acute - companies find themselves in a situation where they have to pay more and more to guarantee the services of top managers. In Russia, problems arise with IT specialists, because information about how the company's IT systems work is locked in the head of one person, and if he leaves, then the new specialist has to learn everything all over again. Another risk is related to the fact that many companies are starting to engage in activities in Russia for which there is no educational background, such as risk consulting or nanotechnology. There are also problems of population migration and aging staff.

The owner and HR managers are willing to take certain personnel risks, since along with the risk of losses, there is the possibility of additional income. This possibility is based on the recognition of the fundamental differences between the organization's human resources and other material, natural or financial resources. These differences are as follows:

1. the presence of an employee's intellect, and, consequently, the possibility of qualitative transformations of other types of resources and technologies for their use;
2. ability to continuous self-improvement and self-development;
3. the possibility of a long-term nature of the relationship between an organization and a person based on the convergence of interests and the formation of loyalty to the company;
4. the uniqueness of each person, creative abilities that allow creating a unique innovative culture in cooperation with other employees.
5. the synergistic effect of the employee's competencies, born when he receives a second (third) education or specialty

It should be recognized that the activity of human resource management is exactly the area that, like no other, is exposed to the greatest number of risks that are difficult to predict and evaluate. The fundamental reason for this is that the business itself has changed significantly in recent years. The importance of the knowledge-based economy lies in the fact that the qualifications and experience of employees are the most valuable asset in many companies. As a result of this turn of affairs, there was an awareness of where key risks come from - unlike other assets, these can simply slam the door and transfer their knowledge and skills to another company.

At the same time, it is very important for any company to provide an objective, adequate understanding of the totality of personnel risks affecting its activities. This is important for a number of reasons. First, to make an optimal decision, information is needed about the risks associated with its development and execution. Secondly, the impact of incomplete information and uncertainty should be mitigated by expanding the range of projected manageable risks. And, finally, a clear understanding of the risks and personnel threats allows you to determine effective risk management methods. Consider the personnel risks of the company from different perspectives:

Classification of personnel risks of the company.

The ability to predict and the accuracy of the assessment	Projected	Risks that can be foreseen, based on economic theory and business practice, and assessed with great accuracy
	Difficult to predict	Risks for which it is impossible to predict the moment of its manifestation and can be estimated approximately
	Not predictable	Risks about which nothing is known, so it is impossible to assess their impact and size
Calculability	Calculated	Risks can be expressed as numerical values, which are processed using statistical methods and mathematical models.
	not calculated	Risks are expressed as a verbal description or value judgment about a given object or process.
Degree of controllability	Managed	Risks that can be mitigated at the organization level
	Conditionally unregulated	Risks that can only be taken into account in the activity
	Unmanaged	Force majeure circumstances that cannot be foreseen and taken into account
The nature of possible losses	Material	Risks of losses, which are manifested in additional costs unforeseen by the plan or direct losses of property, equipment, etc.
	Labor	Manifested in high turnover and low productivity of staff as a result of dissatisfaction and disloyalty
	Financial	Risks associated with direct monetary damage caused by unforeseen payments, payment of fines, non-receipt of funds from the intended sources, etc.
	Waste of time	Risks associated with loss of working time caused by accidental, unforeseen circumstances
	Special	Risks associated with the possibility of damage to health, human life
Type of risk damage	Direct Damage	Risks leading to immediate loss financial resources or destruction of material objects
	Indirect losses	Risks associated with non-receipt of income, increased operating costs and other consequences
Risks at the stages of work with personnel	Recruitment and selection risks	Unfair recruitment, the arrival of people from risk groups, the unreliability of recruited employees, an unverified recruitment agency
	Risks of adaptation	Inappropriate mentor, too much delegated authority at once, no adaptation system, awareness of the wrong job (company), disappointment, stress
	Risks of learning and development	The risk of overload (on the job), work with "coolness" (off the job), not wanting to come back after receiving education, not using the acquired knowledge in the workplace, low effectiveness of training
	Risks of motivation	misunderstood labor motives, lack of a well-thought-out compensation policy, perception of unfair pay, insufficient funds in the company to maintain high motivation to work
	Valuation risks	Risks of bias, inadequacy of costs, manipulation of evaluators, uselessness due to non-remuneration, perception of unfair evaluation and resentment
	Control risks	They are caused by the resistance of the personnel to the control procedures, the lack of development of the system, methods, procedures and means of control.
	Risks of dismissal	Transfer to a competitor, withdrawal of databases, clients, know-how of the company, disclosure of confidential information, complaints to the Labor Inspectorate, tension among the remaining employees
Nature of risk spending	When making a decision under risk	Costs include costs associated with risk assessment and the organization of risk management procedures, as well as fees for the services of experts and managers.
	While minimizing risks	Expenses are designed to minimize risks and associated damage
	When eliminating the consequences of the manifestation of risks	Expenses include covering the resulting economic damage (at the expense of own funds, from insurance payments, etc.)
Nature of occurrence	objective	Risks caused by objective circumstances: lack of information, natural disasters, changes in market conditions, investment conditions
	subjective	Risks associated with the personality: undeveloped ability to take risks, lack of experience, violation of the rules of conduct, psychological incompatibility, etc.
Sources of risk (hazards)	Economic	Risks caused by adverse changes in the economy of the country or in the economy of the organization itself: fluctuations in prices for factors of production, exchange rates, inflation,
	Political	Risks associated with the political situation and activities of the state, due to changes in the political regime, tax, budget, credit, currency systems, administrative corruption, the influence of industrial groups
	Technical	Risks caused by the use of new techniques and technologies innovative projects in the absence of training of employees for them, the risk of introducing changes.
	Environmental	Probability of civil liability for causing damage to the environment, life and health of third parties
	Social	Belonging to a risk group, a criminal group, unreliability of personnel, adverse social externalities: social tension, criminalization of the region
	Legal	Risks associated with the instability of legislation, unsettled norms labor law, causing a change in conditions economic activity: legal registration contracts, lack of licenses, violation of copyright and patent rights, etc.
	Informational	Risks due to incompleteness, inaccuracy, distortion of information of various kinds
	Moral	Risks associated with moral responsibility for decisions made in a situation of risks and for the consequences of these decisions (cognitive dissonance)
Risk intent	Random (not intentional)	Lack of awareness of the essence of what is happening and the consequences of their actions; negligence, inattention, violation or lack of relevant rules and regulations; ignorance of norms and regulations, low qualification; own vision of the situation (good intentions), ill-conceived delegation.
	Not random (targeted).	Caused by personal gain, desire for revenge, individual values ​​different from the values ​​of the organization; lack of interest in the development of the organization; intracorporate intrigues, intergroup conflicts; unfair assessment, demotivation, an atmosphere of distrust and closeness.
Cause of risk	Risks of disloyalty	Risks arising from ill-conceived motivation and lack of involvement and satisfaction of employees
	Employee interaction risks	Risks of low sociability and unpredictability of staff behavior, role conflict causing intra-group conflicts, mobbing
	Risks of lack of information	Risks due to incompleteness, inaccuracy, distortion or untimely receipt of information for making an informed decision
	Risks of unprofessional HR-manager	Lead to poor HR performance, ill-conceived HRM system, labor inspectorate litigation, complaints and conflicts
	Leader risks	Autocrat: bias, long power distance, Conniving: crisis of control systems, chaos, Democrat: risk of delegation of authority and responsibility
	Risks from competitors	Deliberate bribery, poaching employees, stealing secrets, competitive intelligence, discrediting the company, blows to reputation
Place of origin	External	Unexpected changes in economic policy, in business processes, in the labor market, the emergence of a powerful competitor, the threat of takeover, destabilization of the company from the outside
	Internal	Risks associated with the specialization of the organization, its organizational culture, personnel policy, leadership style, attitude towards staff and their problems
Degree of reasonableness of the risk	Justified	Behavior based on the assessment and consideration of risks when making a decision and developing measures to reduce possible negative consequences
	unfounded	Risks aimed at achieving the goal in spite of common sense and objective reasons
Tolerance degree (loss rate)	Minimum	Risks for which the maximum damage is small - within 0-25%
	Permissible	Risks, the maximum damage for which is assessed as medium - not exceeding the limits of 25-50%
	critical	Risks characterized by a high level of damage - within 50-75%
	catastrophic	Risks in which possible losses are close to the size of the organization's own funds, which is fraught with bankruptcy. Risks are in the range of 75-100%
Possibility of insurance	Insured risks	Risks that can be quantified and insured
	Not insured	Force majeure risks, the level of which cannot be assessed, or large-scale risks that are not accepted for insurance

The company faces personnel risks at different stages of its activity, and, of course, there can be a lot of reasons for the emergence of a particular risk situation. Usually, the cause of the occurrence is understood as some condition that causes the uncertainty of the outcome of the situation. For personnel risks, such sources can be factors of a different nature: economic, political, environmental, legal, social, technical, and even moral, since we are dealing with the human factor of production. Unfortunately, no matter how much humanity strives for the rationality of its behavior and decisions, the factor of irrationality will always be present in the behavior of workers. This is due to both objective and subjective reasons. Objectively, the perception and assessment of situations in people are different: some see danger and risk in changes, while others consider the same changes as a source of new opportunities. People's fates, social circle, values ​​and worldview, preferences and interests are different. But subjectively, each person strives for uniqueness, originality, and peculiarity. Therefore, he often consciously tries to circumvent the rational orthodox path of solution and chooses a paradoxical direction of movement. It is rightly considered: who does not risk, he does not win. Higher risk is associated with probabilistic extraction and higher returns. In other words, in order to obtain economic profit, it is often necessary to consciously make a risky decision. By relying on standard human behavior, we very often expose ourselves to significant risks that introduce elements of unpredictability and instability into the work of the company. Naturally, the management has the right to partially shift the personnel risk to other economic entities (recruitment agencies, insurance companies), but they cannot completely avoid it.

How to measure risk?
It is necessary to resort to probabilistic categories. The probability of an event is a number from zero to one, and the higher this number is to one, the higher the probability of an event that may or may not occur under conditions of uncertainty. . This probability can be assessed subjectively (expertly), or more subtle, although not always more accurate methods can be applied. An objective method of determining probability is based on calculating the frequency with which certain events occur. The frequency is calculated based on the actual data. So, for example, the frequency of occurrence of a certain level of losses in the process of implementing an investment project can be calculated by the formula:
f(A)=n(A)/n;
where f is the frequency of occurrence of a certain level of losses;
n(A) is the number of occurrences of this loss level;
n is the total number of cases in the statistical sample, including both successfully implemented and failed investment projects.

But probability alone is not enough to describe risks. When examining risk, we must understand the vulnerabilities and threats to the organization. Together, these components form the basis of risk, and their ratio is shown in the figure:

Vulnerability shows weaknesses in the strategy, structure, personnel policy of the company and is characterized by the complexity and level of the various skills and tools required to use it. A vulnerability that is easy to exploit and allows an attacker to take complete control of a system is a high-severity vulnerability. A vulnerability that would require an attacker to invest heavily in equipment and personnel, and only allow access to information of little value, is considered a low-severity vulnerability.

The threat- is an act or event that can compromise the security of a company. It has three components: goals, agents and events.

Goals are those security components (assets, information, people, services) that are under attack. In case of personnel threats, the target, as a rule, is the employee or manager who has powers or resources that are of interest to the attacking agent.

Agents Threats are people who seek to harm an organization. To do this, they must have access to the right employee (direct or indirect), the necessary knowledge or compromising information about him, as well as motivation to perform the required actions (greed, evil intentions, revenge, thirst for glory, etc.).

Threat agents can be:

• employees of the organization. They have the necessary access and knowledge about the systems due to the specifics of their work. The key issue here is motivation. Employees should not be suspected in every case, but should not be taken into account recklessly in risk analysis.
• Former employees. They also have knowledge about systems. The reason for leaving can generate motivation.
• Competitors always have a motivation to gain valuable information or cause harm depending on the conditions of competition. They have some knowledge of the company because they operate in the same area. With the right vulnerability, they can obtain the necessary information and gain access.
• Criminals have their own motivation, they are usually interested in valuable objects (both virtual and physical). Access to objects of value, such as company assets, is key to identifying criminals as a threat to a company.
• The public should be considered as a possible source of threat if the organization commits a crime of a general nature against civilization, pollutes the environment, produces goods that are hazardous to health.
• Business partners have detailed knowledge and access to the personnel and certain resources of the company. There may be no motivation for this, but service providers should be considered as a possible source of threat due to their own interests.
• Clients also have access to the organization's systems and some knowledge of its operation. Because of their potential access, they should be considered as a possible source of threat. Motivation can be created by dissatisfaction with the work of the company or the desire to blackmail it.
• Visitors have access to an organization based on the fact that they visit the organization. Therefore, it is possible to receive information or log into the company's systems. Therefore, visitors are also considered a potential source of threats.

Developments - these are the ways in which threat agents can cause harm to an organization. For example, theft, fraud, fraud with documents, destruction of property, physical interference with systems or operations, unauthorized access to information and assets, disruption of internal or external communications, poaching employees and customers, blackmail to enter into an unprofitable contract, etc.

An integral part of any event is an opportunity. This possibility exists in any company only because employees leave doors open, do not follow security rules, are not vigilant, and are generally not concerned about the company's threats.

Risk is a combination of threat and vulnerability. Threats without vulnerabilities are not risks in the same way that vulnerabilities without threats are. Therefore, risk assessment is the determination of the probability that an unforeseen event will occur.

Risk is qualitatively characterized by three levels:

• Short. There is a small chance of a threat. If possible, action should be taken to eliminate the vulnerability, but their cost should be balanced against the small damage from the risk.
• Average. A vulnerability is a significant level of risk to the security of a company and its employees. There is a real possibility of such an event. Action to address the vulnerability is appropriate and necessary.
• High. The vulnerability is a real threat to the security of the company, its strategy, structures, processes and personnel. Action to address this vulnerability should be taken immediately.

And it should also be borne in mind that in a company, as a rule, there is not one, but many different risks. Each of them has its own probability of occurrence and possible losses. Therefore, for a correct understanding and assessment of future prospects, it is necessary to draw up a “risk map” of the company, which will allow you to compare risks according to the specified parameters:

Rice. "Risk map" of the company.
Identification of personnel risks of the company.

Identifying risks means identifying vulnerabilities and threats. The identification and assessment of personnel risks can be approached from two aspects: investment and resource.

Investment approach considers personnel management as the risk of the necessary investment to cover the losses of non-professional personnel activities. At the same time, the stages of personnel activity can be considered in the form of certain projects: training, selection, motivation, evaluation, etc. The project appraisal sequence begins with a qualitative analysis.

Qualitative risk analysis

Qualitative analysis allows you to identify and identify possible types of risks inherent in a particular stage of personnel work, the causes and factors that affect the level of this type of risk are also determined and described. In addition, it is necessary to describe and give a cost estimate of all possible consequences of the hypothetical realization of the identified risks and propose measures to minimize and / or compensate for these consequences, having calculated the cost estimate of these measures.

1. The first step in conducting a qualitative risk analysis is clear identification of all vulnerabilities in the system of work on human resource management. Let's say where we are vulnerable at the recruitment stage: 1) how reliable the recruiting agency we work with, 2) whether all the necessary types of verification of candidates are carried out, 3) whether we study the reliability of the future employee, 4) whether the candidate is compatible with our culture, its norms and values, 5) whether we use probation, etc. The classification of risks proposed above can provide significant practical assistance in systematizing knowledge about vulnerabilities.
2. Then we determine the reality of threats. This is not easy to do because, as a rule, existing threats do not manifest themselves until an incident occurs. We can identify targeted threats. A directed threat is a combination of a known agent with known access and motivation and a known event directed at a known target. For example, there is an employee (agent) holding a grudge, seeking to find out about recent projects that the company is working on (motivation). This employee has access to the information systems of the organization (access) and knows where this information is located (knowledge). His actions are aimed at the privacy of the new project, and he can try to get the necessary files (event). But identifying all targeted threats is time-consuming and challenging, so it's best to assess the overall level of threats based on the identified vulnerabilities.
3. Suggest countermeasures. For each threat access point within the organization, a countermeasure must be defined.
In this example, countermeasures may include the following: access control; two-factor authentication system; badge (identification card); biometrics; smart card readers at the entrance to the premises; security; file access control; encryption; conscientious, well-trained workers; intrusion detection systems; automated receipt of updates and policy management.

Once the vulnerabilities, threats, and countermeasures are identified, it can be determined whether the risk is high, medium, or low.
Then it is necessary to describe the possible consequences of the implementation of the identified risks and give their cost estimate, i.e. estimate the cost of damage in the event of an attack through a given vulnerability with available countermeasures. This will allow to explore the possibilities of risk management at a qualitative level: risk diversification; risk aversion; risk compensation; localization of risks.

The main method of qualitative analysis is the method of expert assessments. Expert assessment methods include a set of logical and mathematical-statistical methods and procedures related to the activities of an expert in processing the information necessary for analysis and decision-making. The central "figure" of the expert procedure is the expert himself - the analyst, who uses his abilities (knowledge, skill, experience, intuition, etc.) to find the most effective solution.

The experts involved in the risk assessment should:

• have access to all information available to the head of the company's human resources;
• have a sufficient level of creative thinking and the necessary knowledge in the relevant subject area;
• be free from personal preferences in relation to personnel (do not lobby for interests).

Qualitative risk measurement can be used to classify risks and to determine immediate priorities (for example, high-level risk should be considered first). However, qualitative assessment does not work if we start asking the question: "How much should be spent on adjusting this risk?" Without additional information, such as the cost to the organization, this question is not easy to answer.

Quantitative risk analysis

Quantitative Analysis risks involves a cost assessment of damage to individual risks and the overall level of risk as a whole. In many cases, this type of analysis is very difficult because some costs will remain unknown until an incident actually occurs, and only then can they be estimated.
Speaking of quantitative risk analysis, we must answer the question: what can we lose as a result of a successful attack?

Money, time, reputation.
The most obvious way to assess risk is to determine cash costs organizations in the event of a successful attack. These costs are made up of the following:

• performance degradation or downtime;
• stolen equipment or money;
• the cost of the investigation;
• the cost of selecting a new employee, his training, adaptation;
• the cost of expert assistance;
• overtime work of employees;
• the cost of attracting additional human resources to eliminate the consequences of an attack, etc.

To do this, you can use various information and analytical systems (for example, Oracle Application) to obtain a summary analysis. For example, the calculation of lost profits from the departure of specialists, etc.
Estimate Lost time hard enough. This should include the time employees were unable to complete their day-to-day tasks due to a security incident. In this case, the time spent is calculated as the hourly pay of the staff. This is also the time of slowing down the shipment of the company's product or the provision of services, fraught with fines for breach of contract. The time spent on the investigation of the incident, meetings with law enforcement agencies, writing reports and explanatory notes, etc. should also be included in the losses.

Lost reputation
Loss of reputation is the most vulnerable point for a company: it is easier to create new organization than to restore faith in the discredited old one. You can measure the damage from the loss of reputation by the number of customers, employees, suppliers who left the company and the value of the contracts terminated by them. Lost contracts are unrealized potential, which is almost impossible to measure, since it is difficult to assess the impact of the implementation of threats on the loss of potential opportunities.

If we consider personnel risks as risks of certain personnel projects, then a quantitative risk analysis of projects based on probability theory and developed in sufficient detail can be applied to them. The tasks of quantitative risk analysis are divided into three types:

• straight lines, in which the risk level is assessed on the basis of a priori known probabilistic information;
• inverse when given acceptable level risks and the values ​​(range of values) of the initial parameters are determined, taking into account the established restrictions on one or more variable initial parameters;
• tasks of studying the sensitivity, stability of effective, criterion indicators in relation to the variation of the initial parameters (probability distribution, areas of change of certain values, etc.). This is necessary due to the inevitable inaccuracy background information and reflects the degree of reliability of the results obtained in the analysis of project risks.

The table shows the characteristics of risk analysis methods.
Table. Project Risk Analysis Methods

№	Method name	Method Essence	Scope of application
1	Methods of expert assessments	A complex of logical and mathematical-statistical methods and procedures for processing the necessary information related to the activities of an expert	Risk identification, risk ranking, qualitative assessment
2	SWOT analysis	A table that allows you to visually contrast strong and weak sides project, its opportunities and threats	Expert risk assessment
3	Rose (star), risk spiral	Illustrative expert assessment of the riskiness of factors	Risk ranking
4	Method of analogies or conservative forecasts	Study of accumulated experience on projects-analogues in order to calculate the probabilities of losses	Risk assessment of frequently recurring projects
5	Critical value method	Finding those values ​​of variables (factors) tested for risk that bring the calculated value of the corresponding project efficiency criterion to the critical limit	Monitoring risks in the process of project management under the risk of uncertainty
6	Decision Trees	The method of making statistical decisions when choosing one of the alternative options and forming the optimal strategies	Risk analysis of a virtual project. Project management
7	Scenario Analysis	Analysis of the behavior of the criteria indicators of the project as a result of a change in the spectrum of risk factors ( multivariate analysis)	Quantitative approach in risk analysis and management
8	Simulation method	Using a Numerical Risk Assessment	Quantitative assessment of the integral riskiness of the entire project as a whole
9	Experiment planning	Construction of experiment planning matrices to quantify the impact of project components on project efficiency	Quantitative risk analysis. Project management

resource approach involves the recognition of the characteristics of the human resource and the development of a strategy for managing it in order to manage personnel risks at each stage of personnel work. The main objective of such a strategy is to determine ways to develop effective production behavior among all the personnel of the organization and each of its employees individually, as well as to develop plans for organizational and technical measures (OTM) to eliminate the discrepancy between the desired behavior and the existing one through motivation, training, adaptation etc.

Rice. Formation of a resource strategy for assessing personnel risks.

HR risk management methods
HR risk management is an activity aimed at developing strategic and tactical risk analysis measures, developing and taking appropriate measures to optimize risk management at all stages of working with the company's human resources.

The HR risk management strategy includes several stages. The first step is to monitor various potential risks and perceive their level by analyzing threats and vulnerabilities. The analysis makes it possible to identify risks by source, cause of occurrence, intentionality of the risk, the nature and level of losses, and potential actions to realize the risk.

Qualitative and quantitative risk assessment allows you to move on to the stage of risk management.
1. First, the principles on which the company builds its risk management strategy are determined. They can be the following: 1). You can't risk more than you can afford equity(comparability of the level of accepted risks with the opportunities and profitability of the company); 2). It is necessary to think about the consequences of risk: any practice that exposes the life of an individual to excessive risk is unacceptable; 3). You can't risk a lot for a little; four). An integrated approach to risk management is needed, since the same vulnerabilities can lead to threats not to one, but to several company systems; 5) The security services must be independent, impartial and unaffiliated with other units, strictly adhering to special policies and regulations; 6) Important role in making decisions about personnel risks, unlike others, moral aspects play.
2. Then all risks are divided into manageable, poorly managed and unmanaged.
If we cannot manage the risk, we must develop a system for adapting to it.

For managed and poorly managed risks, the following risk management methods can be applied:

1. Avoidance or minimization of risk is a conscious decision not to be exposed to a certain type of risk, to refuse risky projects, partners, employees, managers, or obtain guarantees.

2. Acceptance of risk and coverage of losses through special schemes or own resources (creation of insurance reserves, preventive savings), i.e. risk compensation, self-insurance. Reserves can act in various forms: financial, material, informational, human. Financial reserves can be created by allocating additional funds to cover unforeseen expenses. Foreign experience allows an increase in the cost of the project by 2-7% due to the reservation of funds for force majeure, and Russian practice requires a significant increase in this indicator (10 - 20%).

Material reserves mean the creation of a special insurance stock of raw materials and materials to ensure uninterrupted production for a certain time without additional supplies. As information reserves, one can consider the acquisition of additional "insurance" information. Human reserves are temporarily redundant non-staff personnel in case of unforeseen developments. The basis for determining the need for reserves of human resources is the strategic forecasting of the company's activities. The demand for temporary, or agency, workers is almost doubling every year. Moreover, freelance work increasingly requires not blue, but completely white collars to perform non-core operations for the employer. The reasons why companies resort to agency work, as a rule, are of a somewhat forced nature: temporary disability staff member, seasonal business activity (during the holidays, the need for salespeople and customer service managers increases, during the closing period fiscal year- in additional accountants for working with financial statements).

Direct costs for agency personnel are always higher than for permanent ones, because the agency's fee is included in the final bill anyway, but the employer saves by reducing up to 40% of administrative costs. The main concern of potential employers regarding temporary staff is their lack of commitment to the company. But on the other hand, a specialist who prefers working under a temporary contract has a much broader outlook than a person who has been working in the same industry or in the same company for many years. In addition, the use of temporary workers allows you to solve more complex problems.

Thanks to them, the "Italian" strike at the Vsevolozhsk Ford plant bogged down. The reason for this was the freelance workers that the company has recruited over the past few months. In the fall of 2005, the Ford factory union demanded that management increase workers' wages by 30%, equalize wages for workers of different qualifications doing the same work, and also allow the union to access Social Security funds. In November, the workers held an hour-long warning strike and a week-long "Italian" strike. During this time, the company has not completed about 100 cars. The management of the company made concessions. First, the trade union was admitted to the social insurance fund, and in December the management approved a system for calculating salaries and bonuses, in which it took into account the wishes of the trade unions. Only the question of wage increases remained unresolved. At the end of February, the workers withdrew from the negotiations and on March 13 they resumed the "Italian" strike. But the strike failed. The administration prepared for it by hiring about 200 freelance workers of all trades, thanks to whom the strike had no effect. A slight decrease in production was recorded only in the first two days of the strike, and already on Tuesday and Wednesday, production was working according to plan. Freelancers - effective remedy fight against strikes.

3. Diversification - blurring, distribution of risk between different areas activities, industries, countries, suppliers, consumers, recruitment agencies, employees, controllers. For example, the diversification of control risks occurs due to the separation of duties or dual control: the functions of issuing checks, making payments, checking bank statements, receiving cash should not be performed by one employee, one person should not have uncontrolled access to finance, should not work alone on one with clients. Risk diversification can also apply to investments in human capital: the distribution of risks across various projects in the field of personnel management, social programs, types of training, etc. Diversification can also affect the system of delegation of powers and responsibilities: separation of powers and responsibilities, delegation of powers and part of the responsibility.

Another area of ​​risk diversification is the creation of a single data bank, knowledge bases, a corporate library, a single information space that reduces the risk of business “sinking” with the departure of any one valuable employee. At the same time, procedures and technologies should exist in the company that automatically capture new knowledge and methods of work for their subsequent use by all employees.

Great opportunities for reducing personnel risks are created by the system of vertical and horizontal rotation, the creation of a personnel reserve.

The most advanced type of human resource risk diversification is outsourcing and outstaffing.
According to the scheme outsourcing Many Western companies employ personnel: approximately 70% of large Western companies have transferred at least one business function to another country (or plan to do so in the near future). The outsourcing industry has received the greatest development in India, South Korea and China, where companies are happy to transfer their call centers, research and development, financial and accounting services, etc. Along with these regions, American and European corporations are actively moving business processes to countries with close mentality: Ireland, Israel, Canada, Turkey, Russia. Siemens employees around the world are unaware of the existence of the city of Voronezh. However, it is there that a significant number of their orders for electronic archiving of documents are carried out, the task of supporting users, accounting support for purchases, creating presentations, etc. is solved. Many Moscow companies transfer production and service processes from Moscow to the regions. Having already driven fifty kilometers from the capital, you can achieve double savings in staff and rental costs. Local labor and real estate markets are showing predictable dynamics, it is important that these cities are easily accessible from central office: the quality of roads, as well as communications, are considered almost before the rest.

Meanwhile, the transfer of processes to a foreign contractor is almost always associated with risk. In late 2003, in response to numerous complaints from consumers, Dell Computers ended its partnership with an outsourced call center located in Bangalore, India. The cause of customer dissatisfaction was poor knowledge of English language operators-Indians, who constantly asked ""repeat the last phrase"" and ""long silent on the phone"". Another problem is the manageability of employees of a remote unit. Despite the development of transport and communication technologies, experts are increasingly talking about a disturbing relationship between the lack of control of staff and the distance separating them from the rules and etiquette of the head office. Thus, in April 2005, three employees of the Mphasis company, which provided call processing services to the largest banking group Citibank, were arrested. These employees used their positions to swindle Citibank customers for their PIN codes and transfer money from customer accounts to their own. According to the research company TowerGroup, in 2005 about 20% financial companies that used outsourcing, decided to refuse to transfer business functions to third-party firms. That. attempts to avoid some risks lead us to the emergence of others.

Outstaffing is a service in the field of personnel management for the removal of personnel from the staff of the customer company and its registration in the staff of the provider company. In this case, the provider takes full responsibility legal liability for personnel, including HR administration and accounting, payment of wages, taxes, social and medical insurance, registration of vacations, business trips, bonuses, etc. Out-of-staff employees continue to work for same place and fulfill their former duties, but the employer's obligations towards them are performed by the provider company. This allows diversifying the company's risks by shifting them partially to the provider. What are the main risks?

First, outstaffing has become a solution to the problems caused by the costs of a legally regulated market, in which the number of laws and regulations governing labor Relations, is growing at an unthinkable pace, as a result of which companies are forced to deal with them and spend at least 25% of their time on HR-related documentation. Lagging behind in this matter is fraught with inspections of labor and tax inspections with subsequent decisions. The provider assumes the risks of tracking ongoing changes and correct documentary and legal support for personnel. The acquisition of additional time will allow HR departments to reallocate working time, master and apply the latest techniques training and personnel management.

Secondly, many small and medium-sized companies do not have the opportunity to provide their employees with so-called benefits - packages of social benefits and insurance due to the high cost of contracts with insurers. The provider takes the risks of staff dissatisfaction with these aspects and solves this kind of problem.

Thirdly, in the conditions of competition for personnel, promising candidates for a vacancy dictate their sometimes excessively high requirements to the employer, which the employer can satisfy only with the help of a provider company. So we reduce the risk of not getting a valuable employee for our vacancy.

And finally, the provider assumes the risks of conflict, controversial situations with personnel, the risks of checking personnel during hiring and dismissal.

4. Insurance risks is a relationship to protect the property interests of individuals and legal entities in the event of certain events (insured events) at the expense of monetary funds formed from the insurance premiums (insurance premiums) paid by them.

Insurance companies impose strict requirements on the risks that they can take on under an insurance contract, because, like any other commercial enterprise, Insurance Company seeks to protect itself from losses and make a profit.

Insurance has obvious advantages:
attraction of insurance capital to compensate for losses;
reducing uncertainty in the financial planning of the enterprise (it is easier to budget);
freeing up funds for more effective use(no need to reserve);
reducing risk management costs by using the experience of insurance experts to assess and manage risk.

Personnel insurance programs in companies, as a rule, concern the health and life insurance of personnel, the provision of a different range of medical and dental services, depending on the rank of the employee. They can be carried out both completely at the expense of the employer, and at the expense of contributions by the employees themselves (pension insurance savings).

What are the goals of life and health insurance for employees:

insurance product	Target
Voluntary health insurance	Covering the costs of obtaining quality and timely medical care
Insurance for the period of temporary residence outside the city of permanent residence	Coverage for unexpected medical expenses
Life insurance for key employees	Protection of the financial interests of the company
Insurance in case of death, disability, incapacity for work as a result of an accident	Protecting the financial well-being of the employee's family in the event of loss of income
Hospitalization or surgery insurance	Compensation for lost income and indirect treatment costs not covered by the VHI policy
Temporary disability insurance sick leave	Addition to payment from the social insurance fund
Insurance in case of diagnosing a critical illness (cancer, heart attack, paralysis, etc.)	Allows you to pay for treatment on time

Priority programs for occupations that threaten health and life include life insurance programs.

The directions of their implementation are diverse, for example, in the international corporation ZM they are as follows:

1. On the basis of general accident insurance, an amount equal to the annual income of the employee is paid, and if death occurs as a result of an accident, the benefits to the family are doubled.
2. If more than one person is injured in an accident and one of them dies, additional amounts are paid to the survivors.
3. At the request of the employee, at higher rates of his deduction to the funds of the insurance program, the amount of insurance is doubled.
4. With symbolic deductions ($1 per month), you can insure the life of your spouse in the amount of $5,000 and a child under the age of 21 in the amount of $1,500.
5. Within 24 hours after a fatal accident, payments are made from 20 to 250 thousand dollars, but not more than ten times the annual income of the deceased employee.
6. In case of loss of a breadwinner, 25 % annual income of the victim to his child until they reach 19 years of age.

Contributions to the life insurance fund range from 0.5 to 1% of an employee's annual income.

Confidence in the future, in their secure retirement existence, is given to employees by pension programs that guarantee them a secure old age and the payment of a corporate pension in full or limited amounts, depending on age, seniority and number of years in the corporation.

Among the problems that companies face when insuring risks are the difficulties of determining adequate insurance coverage, the lack of insurance coverage for specific risks, the desire of the insurer to "hedge" himself and overestimate the insurance premium, as well as the difficulty of comparing the conditions of competing insurance companies.

The establishment of a guarantee period for the proposed specialist by the recruitment agency can be recognized as a kind of insurance tool for personnel risks. The warranty period during which the replacement of a candidate hired is free of charge is usually set equal to probationary period specified by the customer in the application for the selection of a specialist. The replacement guarantee is valid provided that the customer himself did not violate the conditions of the candidate's work described in the application for the selection of a specialist. When selecting top managers, when it comes to a high level of responsibility and project cost, the guarantee can reach 1 year. By default, it is assumed that the performer will present at least 3 candidates, while as much as possible corresponding to the profile of the position previously agreed or prescribed in the application. But the number of replacements is not limited.

Stages of personnel risk management.
So, the work of a company in managing personnel risks goes through the following main stages:

Risk managers are responsible for assessing and managing risks in the company. Successful implementation and operation of a risk management system is possible when the understanding of the need for this type of activity by management is supported by the presence of appropriate qualities in risk managers, such as: high efficiency, stress tolerance, adaptability, self-learning, analytical thinking, risk sensitivity. In the absence of a risk management culture in an organization, employees who perform risk assessment, from the point of view of the rest of the staff, are “extra people” that prevent them from getting excess profits and hinder entry into new markets. The lack of support from the company's personnel creates additional obstacles, in particular, business units often have an inappropriate influence on the risk manager, aimed at making the decisions they need or speeding up the decision-making process to the detriment of the quality of the analysis.

At the same time, the presence of a reliable risk management system becomes not only a tool for the work of the company itself, but also an indicator that affects its reputation. Therefore, a number of companies, in particular Standard & Poor's, offer their services in analyzing the risk management system (ERM) of companies and, on this basis, assessing their corporate creditworthiness. New conditions for assessing companies may significantly affect their ratings. Regardless of the company and sector, all enterprises and organizations will be examined according to four main analytical criteria:

1. Culture of risk management.
To assign a score to this component, they will analyze organizational structure, roles, responsibilities and qualifications of employees involved in the risk management process. One of the most important aspects in the analysis will be the degree to which the risk management system is integrated into the decision-making processes. It is also important to assess whether the level of risk tolerance is taken into account in decision-making processes. Significant will be considered the existence of processes for the exchange of information on risks within and outside the company.

2. Risk control.
Risk control processes are assessed, taking into account the risks characteristic of both the industry as a whole and those identified by the company's management. The degree of consistency between risk tolerance and risk limits will be an important element of the assessment. The risk control assessment will also include an element such as an analysis of the company's significant risk management programs.

3. Critical management
The methods used by some companies provide coverage for the risk of crises. Such methods include environmental analysis, scenario analysis and stress testing, contingency planning. Having assessed the quality of anti-crisis planning, specialists will receive information about the level of the company's exposure to losses from adverse events, about prompt response and the ability to reduce these losses. Conclusions will also be drawn on how adequately the company can make the necessary adjustments when planning adverse events and measures to counter them.

4. Strategic risk management
Strategic risk management is the integration of risk management into processes strategic planning company activities. Analysis strategic management risk management involves analyzing the company's risk map and obtaining clarifications from management on its current and forecast state. It also analyzes the programs for taking into account risk assessments in the distribution of capital, as well as the effect of the use of risk capital in already made strategic decisions.

Based on the results of the analysis, the company's risk management system will be assigned a certain level (table).

The level of development of the risk management system	Characteristic
« Weak"	The enterprise lacks sufficient control over one or more significant risks. Often the reason for this lies in the limited ability of the company to systematically identify, assess and control threats, as a result of which risk management is carried out in an inconsistent and uncoordinated way. The damage from the occurrence of risk events can affect several areas of the company's activities. Risk and threat management issues are rarely factored into corporate decision making.
"Adequate"	Risk management is mainly aimed at preventing the most significant hazards. The Company is able to identify, evaluate and control most of the significant threats, however, the methodology in the field of risk management is not well developed. Losses in case of realization of risks relate to those areas that are not covered by the risk management system. Potential threats are taken into account when making corporate decisions.
"Reliable"	The Company controls significant risks, has coordinated processes for identifying and assessing threats, and a regulatory system within predetermined risk tolerance frameworks. The probability of unexpected losses outside the risk tolerance level is small. Company management is largely based on the risk management system.
"A great"	The enterprise has all the characteristics of the previous level. Risk management processes are integrated

The economic security of the company forms the basis of its development. According to experts, the share of personnel-related risks accounts for 65 to 80% of all possible adverse events that threaten the business. Personnel risks are gradually but surely gaining importance in the minds of management methodologists and practitioners. The reasons for this lie in the historical systemic crisis experienced by civilization in the next cycle of its development. The consequence of this is not only the aggravation of the contradictions of production relations, but also the growth of dangerous motivational imbalances.

The concept and classification of personnel risks

Business as a certain set of purposeful decisions and actions may well be presented as one very large task, the results of which are profit and mission accomplished. Both a source and responsible resources for business tasks are people, therefore, the main problems of their solution are based on the element of management associated with personnel. Therefore, it is quite acceptable to assume that most of the reasons for the emergence of internal risks of a company depend on personnel.

Personnel risks - the probability of occurrence of adverse events of the implementation of threats emanating from people as a result of decision-making. Threats of this type are complex and are also called anthropogenic. Adverse events are expressed in the loss of important confidential information, in the manifestation of commercial risks, in the loss of profit, image and reputation of the company.

In the 21st century, information has become the most important competitive factor, which is why the causes of the risk of loss, theft and deliberate distortion of information are directly related to the risks of personnel. These risks can be the source of the following information threats.

1. Intentional harm software and databases.
2. Unauthorized penetration into arrays of data representing a commercial secret.
3. Violation of confidentiality of information and its theft.
4. Unintentional damage to the company's information system.

Other modern types of risks associated with personnel are the possibility of theft of the company's material assets and the risk of losing company funds as a result of unjustified investments in the training of personnel who then quit. Theft of company property, being literally the "scourge" of the modern Russian business environment, has the following sources of occurrence:

• deformed social attitudes of employees;
• low level of organization of control and accounting at the enterprise;
• double standards of the tax-legal model of activity, which the management is forced to implement in order to keep the business in a crisis.

The classification of the risks under consideration is primarily due to the functions of personnel management implemented in the relevant division of the company's management. In addition to this feature, there are also such criteria for dividing risks as types of losses, the possibility of diversification, validity period, predictability and admissibility. Below is the maximum possible classification of the risks of the company's personnel.

Classification of types of personnel risks

HR risk management methods

On the one hand, personnel risk management follows a typical methodology for dealing with the likelihood of adverse business events. Risk management in this category includes procedures for identifying, assessing and controlling risk factors from the standpoint of external and internal sources of occurrence. On the other hand, the regulation of potential personnel threats comes as close as possible to the strategy of personnel management and strategic concept activity safety. This means that the personnel risk management process is dually related to the functional HR system and to the company's security system.

Diagram of interrelationships of personnel risk management and security systems

Risk management as a subsystem of HR management and a security component is meaningfully performed in a multi-aspect mode and provides the following.

1. Compliance with the concept of acceptable risk, which implies not the absolute elimination of risks, but the minimization of threats to values ​​below critical ones.
2. Implementation of a targeted sequence of actions: identification, assessment, development and implementation of a risk minimization program, application of compensatory measures to level the damage caused by embodied threats.
3. Regulatory interaction of subjects and objects of risk management. The subjects are the legislative and executive authorities of the state, the general management of the company, and the HR service. Management is aimed at a specific object - the factors and sources of the company's personnel risks.
4. Implementation of special principles, functions, methods of evaluation and management, allowing to achieve the best effect in the face of uncertainty and unpredictability of human behavior.

Qualitative and quantitative indicators of risk are used for evaluation. This fairly traditional methodological practice of riskology is actively used in personnel management. The following personnel risk assessment methods are distinguished:

• calculation and analytical methods based on the results and analytics of a personnel audit;
• probabilistic evaluation methods used under conditions of partial uncertainty;
• statistical methods using statistical and mathematical tools;
• methods of expert assessment most suitable for a situation of complete risk uncertainty.

Concluding the review of personnel risks, I will assume that in the coming years this area will receive an impetus to the development of methodology and to functional consolidation in management practice. This realization is coming to many leaders. Rigid and fairly straightforward attempts to resolve the issue "with a swoop" do not give the desired result. The Machiavellian doctrine of "Divide and Conquer" is increasingly faltering. There is only one way out - to painstakingly build a personnel risk management system, allocate appropriate budgets and continuously look for the optimal level of regulation and value motivation. It seems to me that in this matter, without a state policy to ensure success corporate level not enough.